2024 QB Laboratory

[VikingOracle]

I think the 2024 quarterback draft will be illuminating as there is so much 1st round talent whose development can be compared over a variety of variables: (a) QB perceived talent level; (b) offensive or defensive head coach; © franchise history in developing QBs; (d) QBs fit within the team's offensive scheme; (e) strength of the offense; (f) how fast QB is rushed to play and (g) age.

Caleb Williams: (a) Talent -- 9 (10 being Andrew Luck); (b) Defensive HC; © franchise history -- poor; (d) I think Caleb is seen as talented enough to fit any scheme; (e) offensive talent greatly upgraded offseason; (f) immediate rush to play; (g) age: 22.

Jayden Daniels: (a) Talent -- 8 (but see below); (b) Defensive HC though they have a perceived strong OC; © franchise history: mediocre -- interestingly, they seem better at developing middle round QBs than high draft picks; (d) I think the consensus is that Daniels fits well into what Kingsbury likes to do; (e) they were 24th last year -- some talent but not great; (f) immediate rush to play; (g) age: 23.  NOTE:  I stumbled into this article (Rookie QB Rankings) and the author ranked JD below McCarthy as a passer -- one reason is he was ranked the 9th best draft eligible QB in the red zone.

Drake Maye: (a) Talent -- 7 (partly because KOC appears to be high on him but really what gives him this rating is the perceived ceiling more than prior accomplishments -- see note below); (b) Defensive HC; © franchise history -- I guess this depends on whether you see Brady as dumb luck or well developed; (d) fit --I understand Van Pelt likes to run a lot of run fakes to deep passes which should fit Drake Maye; (e) the offensive talent is lacking; (f) not immediate rush to play but there will be a rush to play; (g) age: 21.  NOTE: From the same article above, the author had Maye rated as the 13th best draft eligible QB in the red zone but rated Maye as 2nd overall taking into consideration running and ceiling.

Michael Penix: (a) Talent -- 7 (but see note below); (b) Defensive HC; © franchise history -- decent? (d) from what I have read he fits the Falcon's offense decently; (e) really good offensive talent; (f) no rush to play; (g) age 24.  NOTE: Same article as above didn't give Penix high marks because he was ranked 8th against top defenses and 11th in red zone.

JJ McCarthy: (a) Talent -- 7 (but somewhat based on perceived ceiling); (b) Offensive HC; © franchise history -- okay? not a lot of draft capital spent on QBs (d) as I understand it, JJ fits the offense very well; (e) great offensive talent; (f) not being rushed to play (hopefully); (g) age: 21.  NOTE: same article rates JJ highly noting that his score on 3rd and 4th down is the highest ever recorded by the author.

Bo Nix:  (a) Talent -- 6 (see note below); (b) Offensive HC; © franchise history: good; (d) fit: I understand his fit is very good; (e) well below average offensive talent; (f) rush to start; (g) age: 24.  NOTE: same article, Nix rated 7th in the red zone and 5th n 3rd/4th down -- overall, the author had Nix rated behind Rattler.

It will be interesting to see who is the best of these 6 after a couple of years.  I think McCarthy, Williams, Penix and (somewhat) Nix ended up in the best situations.  Maye, by far, ended up in the worse.  I still can't understand the Patriots turning down the Vikings' alleged trade offer.

[NorseFeathers]

I noticed Trubisky came in at #10 for all  QB's graded since 2012. He obviously is no Mahomes but he's a much better QB than what he has shown and a perfect example of what happens to very young QB's when they are mishandled.

[StickierBuns]

I find all the analytical information mildly interesting, certainly worth a read. But its flawed for trying to draw conclusions or predictions. JJM only had 4 INTs this last season and 2 of those INTs came on back to back throws in one game. But he also didn't throw it as often as the other guys. JJM's athleticism and arm talent for some bizarre reason got very underrated a few months ago but now suddenly has come to light since the Draft. Its always been there. But his weakness will be his accuracy: it needs improvement and refinement. Having said that, its not college Josh Allen bad either.

JMO, but one of the guys that had a ton of potential and got royally screwed by his team and situation recently was Sam Darnold. I saw a mock draft for next year recently that had Carolina taking QB Carson Beck from Georgia....I think Bryce Young is on somewhat thin ice. Pretty crazy considering he's played one season. Its obviously too early for that and he could have an excellent sophomore season, but if Carolina has another shit season and they draft high, I could see them pulling the trigger on another QB. I'm very interested in watching the 2024 QB Draft crew moving forward.

[MaroonBells]

That is a very interesting article that deserves another link if anyone missed it in your post like I did at first.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...e-formula/

[purplefaithful]

I'm more with Sticky on this - analytics re: QB predictions are amusing but I cant buy into their predictive prowess...

IMO there is Caleb then everyone else. But thats just a hunch at the end of the day.

How that remainder will stack-out over time is anyones guess.

This will be a more interesting QB class to follow than the one a few years back with Lawrence/Wilson/Lance.

[VikingOracle]

I'm more with Sticky on this - analytics re: QB predictions are amusing but I cant buy into their predictive prowess...

I agree and that is why I listed a number of factors that may impact QB development.  As I recall, Ponder was excellent in the red zone his rookie year and we all know where that ended.  I did think Fornelli's article was interesting and more granular than most draft ratings.  Obviously, you look at his top 20 players graded since 2012, you see some startling inclusions (Dwayne Haskins as #3) and omissions (no Burrows).  And who the hell is Jack Coan (#18).

[Havoc]

That is a very interesting article that deserves another link if anyone missed it in your post like I did at first.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...e-formula/

This is probably the single most ridiculous attempt at manufacturing a magical potion as I’ve ever seen come out of the NFL press world. 

Fornelli is clueless. The only rational thing he writes in the article is, “I failed”. There’s no question his little formula is a failure. I could ask the average person on the street to throw a bunch of names into a bowl ala a chicken bone sorceress and gotten the same list. 

I didn’t need to go any further than Caleb Williams. He was horrendous against even average defenses this year. The entire last half of the season was against a few competent teams and he was abysmal. 

Bo Nix probably recorded the highest QB rating in college or pro history on third and long. 3rd and 11+ his rating was 271.4. He did 157.2 on all 4th downs. 

Seriously, I’m pretty sure it’s the single dumbest attempt I’ve seen (so far) at trying to quantify and predict success. 

As for Andrew Luck, it’s too bad his injury ended his career, but he was a borderline bust at that point. Now don’t take that wrong, he was a pretty good QB overall, but he didn’t perform even close to the expectations people had of him. The hype far far far outweighed his actual performance (which is the only reason I use the word bust) and for some reason his legend lives on today.

Guy was arguably the 3rd or 4th best QB in his draft class.

[StickierBuns]

I agree and that is why I listed a number of factors that may impact QB development.  As I recall, Ponder was excellent in the red zone his rookie year and we all know where that ended.  I did think Fornelli's article was interesting and more granular than most draft ratings.  Obviously, you look at his top 20 players graded since 2012, you see some startling inclusions (Dwayne Haskins as #3) and omissions (no Burrows).  And who the hell is Jack Coan (#18).

Coan played for both Wisconsin and Notre Dame. Colts had him in their camp in 2022 as an UDFA. He's playing in the Canadian Football League now. Why he's on the list is not only a good question, but it shows how goofy those analytics are.

[Montana Tom]

I agree that the "Fornelli formula" may be flawed, however...what really jumps out at me is aligning all the draft pundits who claimed JJM did not throw much last year as Michigan had a run-first offense. Yet he still had more yardage throwing than a half dozen of these "top QB prospects" in the 2024 class. And really, only 18% fewer yards in the air compared to Caleb Williams. I think he's in a good situation with KOC, and to be able to absorb behind Darnold. Please Darnold...don't stink up the joint this season. I wish for your success this year.

[Zanary]

More and more, my perfect situation is that Sam Darnold has 1-2 massive "redemption" seasons, which are coupled with similarly good seasons for the team as a whole, and simply becomes too expensive to keep...so, he saves his career and moves on just as JJM has had time to "marinate" and grow into the system, ready to take the reins in a healthy amount of time.

I don't think this is actually unreasonable, and shouldn't be improbable.