Draft hit rate by position

[MaroonBells]

How crappy is the crap shoot? Pretty crappy. Basically, your chances of hitting on players in the 1st round, regardless of position, is 43%. Makes you wonder why these picks carry so much value 

Adam Schefter
@AdamSchefter
ESPN content producer
@PaulHembo
calculated the percentage of 1st-round picks that “hit” or “miss,” based upon whether that player signed a second contract with the team that drafted them. The data encompasses the 20 drafts spanning 2000-2019. Here are the positional hit rates:

[StickierBuns]

Its crazy how inexact this whole process is. Luck plays a roll in something it shouldn't. The Vikings don't have a history of being lucky.

[VikingOracle]

Just asking, are they rating Bradbury as a hit or the 1 miss?

[bigbone62]

To put the "calculation" in perspective, if JJ doesn't re-sign with MN he was a miss. While Bradbury was hit. Huh?

[medaille]

To put the "calculation" in perspective, if JJ doesn't re-sign with MN he was a miss. While Bradbury was hit. Huh?

You can do this for any and every metric.  Eventually you just pick something and talk about it.

[MaroonBells]

To put the "calculation" in perspective, if JJ doesn't re-sign with MN he was a miss. While Bradbury was hit. Huh?

It's not perfect, but it's probably the only way to measure it. 8 times out of 10, a 2nd contract means you didn't miss.

[AGRforever]

Its crazy how inexact this whole process is. Luck plays a roll in something it shouldn't. The Vikings don't have a history of being lucky.

The Vikings have a fantastic history of being lucky.  Our playoff appearance numbers is top 3 of 32 teams.  You don't get that far that often by drafting poorly over the years.  We just haven't gotten lucky and won a title.  KOC will get us there.  Have some faith.

[StickierBuns]

The Vikings have a fantastic history of being lucky.  Our playoff appearance numbers is top 3 of 32 teams.  You don't get that far that often by drafting poorly over the years.  We just haven't gotten lucky and won a title.  KOC will get us there.  Have some faith.

Oh I'm a big fan of KOC (that's what she said). And even more convinced he can make a rookie QB great in Minnesota. But the team being lucky? Other than the Minneapolis Miracle, not sure I'd ever consider the Vikings 'lucky'. But that doesn't mean they can't be moving forward: past performance is no indicator of future results. If it were, us long timers would have given up LONG ago.

[AGRforever]

I've made up my mind. I want to draft Murphy at 11 and Nix at 23. If we need to trade up from 23 a few spots for Nix go for it. Nix isn't the sexy pick but he has as good of a chance of making it as the rest.

[MaroonBells]

Don't get me started on our luck. Yes, we've drafted well (comparatively), and we've enjoyed more playoff seasons than most fans, but we've also endured the untimely Teddy injury, the untimely Bradford injury, the Nate Poole thing, the wide left, the Favre pick, etc., etc., etc....

The one that might dig the most is the most recent. We finally build up our OL, we finally get the DC right, we have weapons for days and a top 10 QB running it all. And that guy, returning to the same offense for the first time in 7 years, looks fucking SPECTACULAR...and then...the most durable QB in the NFL... [que horror music]

It's not that bad things have happened. Bad things happen to all teams. But for the Vikings, it's the stabbing irony of it all...

• QB's never been hurt...
• Kicker hasn't missed all year...
• Two best teams in our history didn't even make the Super Bowl (push off, wide left)

Will our luck change on Thursday? I sure hope so.