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After reading how the Bills are going to cap hell next year with Josh Allen's cap hit rising to $47M, it made me want to check in on all these young QBs winning Super Bowls on rookie deals. Allen may not be the passer some think he is, but he's not the problem in Buffalo. So the Bills will restructure his deal, push money down the road and once again compete for a title in 2024. There's no doubt about that.
So here are the QBs taken in the 1st round since 2010: Young, Stroud, Richardson, Pickett, Lawrence, Z Wilson, Lance, Fields, M Jones, Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love, Murray, D Jones, Haskins, Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen, L Jackson, Trubisky, Mahomes, Watson, Goff, Wentz, Lynch, Winston, Mariota, Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater, Manuel, Luck, Griffin, Tannehill, Weeden, Newton, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder, Bradford, Tebow...
I've bolded the ones who've won a Super Bowl on their rookie deals.
More turds on that list than diamonds;
I HATE having to draft a qb. Vikings (RS) are not good at it
To me that list underscores how well the Chiefs are run: Scheme, scheme fit, scouting, drafting, coaching, culture etc..
Look at it another way: GB had 30 years of HOF Qb'ing and won 2 titles across Favre/Rogers. Chiefs have had Mahomes for 5.5 years now.
I dont think its a solid bet that we move up unless its Caleb Williams and the Bears control that pick, so gonna have to overpay.
Williams is a very solid prospect but he doesn’t have a truly unique skillset the way Anthony Richardson did. I’’m coming around to the idea of seeing if Penix is there at 11 or trying to trade down and land Nix ir Mccarthy. I thought a good point was made by OP earlier that this Oline is solid enough you could start a Penix and not get him shell shocked.
Best thing to do is stay true to your board and take the best player available. There should be a corner or front 7 pick available that will immediately upgrade our D. Best case we trade down a couple spots and try to get our 3rd back.
Obvi the first chip to fall will be Kirko, which makes all the difference in our plan.
Teams chase qb's in the draft because if you hit gold, you are competing for a title for a decade or more. They aren't going to stop trying to hit the jackpot just because it's hard to succeed.
I think Eagan would be stormed with pitchforks if they drafted a DB at 11.
Platinum scenario for me would be sign KC to a friendlier 2 year deal, draft bpa at 11, trade-up end of rd 1 ala Bridgewater for one of the tier 2 guys with upside. Let that kid qb mariniate for a bit.
Am curious to see how that tier 2 of QB's plays out after they are poked, prodded and stacked by April.
You’re kind of jumbling up a couple of different things all
at the same time. Can a young QB
win? Can a first round draft pick
win? Does a cheap QB win?
Aaron Rodgers (2010 edit: 6th year), Joe Flacco (2012), Russell Wilson (2013),
and Patrick Mahomes (2019) all won SBs on rookie deals during that time period.
Wilson obviously was a 3rd rounder, that’s obviously
more of an advantage cap wise than a first rounder.
Rodgers and Flacco both were on the older rookie wage scale,
which was more of a burden for their teams to overcome.
The overwhelming trend is that HOF caliber QBs win SBs at
much higher rates than everyone else and you either have to draft them or pick
them up at the very end of their career.
While winning a SB with a QB on a rookie deal is obviously great, it’s very difficult as OP points out. What it does do, however, if the QB is good and with a trajectory pointing upwards, is allow you to fill out the rest of the roster with talent and cap space. Then, when rent inevitably comes due and you do have to pay the QB, you determine if that QB is good enough, decide yes, give them a massive deal, and kick the money down the road, thus extending the window beyond the rookie deal. That is the hope. Look at the teams with QBs on rookie deals right now and how well they’ve been able to fill out the rest of the roster (SF, CIN, MIA, even JAX and LAC). Are they all winning Super Bowls? No. But is their overall roster in a healthier spot today than if they had been paying $40M/yr to a QB that entire time to also not win Super Bowls? Yes.
Also, I know @ MaroonBells is always saying he’d rather compete year in and year out versus winning one Super Bowl and stinking for a decade. I disagree with that but if you do agree then this gameplan should be even more of a W to you. Find the QB. Figure it out. Rolling with a vet might give you a better chance if the stars align (TB, LAR), but it gives you a finite window whereas the other option gives you a lot more headway.
Quote: @medaille said:
You’re kind of jumbling up a couple of different things all
at the same time. Can a young QB
win? Can a first round draft pick
win? Does a cheap QB win?
Aaron Rodgers (2010), Joe Flacco (2012), Russell Wilson (2013),
and Patrick Mahomes (2019) all won SBs on rookie deals during that time period.
Wilson obviously was a 3rd rounder, that’s obviously
more of an advantage cap wise than a first rounder.
Rodgers and Flacco both were on the older rookie wage scale,
which was more of a burden for their teams to overcome.
The overwhelming trend is that HOF caliber QBs win SBs at
much higher rates than everyone else and you either have to draft them or pick
them up at the very end of their career.
You're right about Flacco. He was on the 5th year of his rookie deal when he won his Super Bowl. But Rodgers was on his 2nd deal when he won his. Still, neither QB was in the time frame I used.
Quote: @pattersaur said:
While winning a SB with a QB on a rookie deal is obviously great, it’s very difficult as OP points out. What it does do, however, if the QB is good and with a trajectory pointing upwards, is allow you to fill out the rest of the roster with talent and cap space. Then, when rent inevitably comes due and you do have to pay the QB, you determine if that QB is good enough, decide yes, give them a massive deal, and kick the money down the road, thus extending the window beyond the rookie deal. That is the hope. Look at the teams with QBs on rookie deals right now and how well they’ve been able to fill out the rest of the roster (SF, CIN, MIA, even JAX and LAC). Are they all winning Super Bowls? No. But is their overall roster in a healthier spot today than if they had been paying $40M/yr to a QB that entire time to also not win Super Bowls? Yes.
Also, I know @MaroonBells is always saying he’d rather compete year in and year out versus winning one Super Bowl and stinking for a decade. I disagree with that but if you do agree then this gameplan should be even more of a W to you. Find the QB. Figure it out. Rolling with a vet might give you a better chance if the stars align (TB, LAR), but it gives you a finite window whereas the other option gives you a lot more headway.
I'm not saying that a 1st round QB on a rookie deal is a BAD thing. It's a good thing...for the reasons you highlight. I'm just saying it's obviously not the golden ticket to a title that so many seem to think it is when only 1 QB in the last 43 has done it.
You are still over-restricting. If a QB on a rookie contract can win the SB
for their team, it should be counted in the pool of being beneficial for the
idea of guys on a rookie contract. You
shouldn’t exclude Flacco just because his contract was pre-wage scale. If his team could win despite being burdened
by his “massive” contract, they certainly would have been better off with a
cheaper contract. Likewise Wilson
shouldn’t be excluded just because he was a 3rd rounder. That’s more damning for the people who are judging
who’s good or not, as opposed to the strategy of getting a young QB on a cheap
contract. Also an edge-case (The Eagles
followed the strategy of using the rookie contract QB, had their whole roster
following that plan, but their backup QB saved the day after an injury.)
13 SBs
- 4
are Brady
- 2
are Mahomes
- 2
more are Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers
- 8
of the SBs are occupied by future HOFers or perennial elite QBs (Didn’t
include Wilson because he’s trending downwards hard).
- 9
of the SBs were won by QBs drafted by the team (Manning, Foles, Brady (1x),
Stafford were FA)
- 7
of the SBs were 1st round picks (Brady (4x), Wilson, Foles were
not)
- 4
of the SBs had rosters constructed around a rookie contract QB (Flacco,
Wilson, Foles, Mahomes)
The stats are pretty clear.
- Draft
a QB.
- Get
a HOF caliber QB.
- If
you’re going to draft a QB, the 1st round and the 6th round
were the most productive, so obviously focus there.
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