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Does this mean the Vikings won the Jefferson-for-Diggs trade?No one play answers that question, but let's avoid the cop-out answer of "they both won" and pick a winner. This wasn't originally a one-for-one swap, but it turned out as much: In March 2020, the Bills sent their first-round pick in the 2020 draft and three other selections to the Vikings for Diggs and a seventh-rounder. Minnesota used that pick on Jefferson in April's draft, but the other selections didn't amount to much. The most notable player from the trade is cornerback Dane Jackson, whom the Bills drafted with that seventh-rounder.
Since the deal, Jefferson and Diggs rank Nos. 1 and 2 in receiving yardage. They've run virtually the same number of routes. The question of who has been better depends on what you're looking for in a top receiver:
Stefon Diggs vs. Justin Jefferson | Player | Route | Target | Rec | Yds | TD | 1D | Yds/Rt |
|---|
| Diggs | 1,479 | 430 | 302 | 3,745 | 25 | 184 | 2.5 | | Jefferson | 1,477 | 393 | 265 | 4,076 | 21 | 176 | 2.8 |
Jefferson has been more explosive, generating more yards on fewer targets. Diggs has commanded a larger target share and produced more first downs and touchdowns. You might argue you would prefer Diggs if you wanted a first down or Jefferson if you wanted an explosive play. Either way, the gap doesn't amount to much.
If that's the case, though, it seems obvious the Vikings got the better end of the deal. For one, Diggs has gotten to spend those two years with Allen as his quarterback. Allen has flourished and undoubtedly improved in part because Diggs is in the lineup, but Jefferson (and before him Diggs) has made Kirk Cousins better, too. In a vacuum, just about every NFL observer would argue that Allen is a better quarterback than Cousins. Jefferson also is 5 years younger, making him a better long-term asset for his franchise
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35021856/was-vikings-bills-best-game-nfl-season-explaining-ending-justin-jefferson-catch-josh-allen-struggles-kirk-cousins-rise
On top of that, Jefferson's contract has been much cheaper. With the former LSU star on a rookie deal for the first three years of his NFL career, Jefferson has cost the Vikings only about $10.7 million between 2020 and 2022. Diggs earned $28.5 million between 2020 and 2021 before signing an extension with the Bills this past offseason, adding $24.6 million to the total. Jefferson will make up some of that difference when he signs a massive extension after the season, but the Bills have paid about five times as much for Diggs' 2020-to-'22 campaigns as the Vikings have for Jefferson.
The gap between the two amounts to $14 million per season, which is money the Vikings have applied elsewhere. They might not have always spent that money wisely, but the comparison here isn't just between Diggs and Jefferson. It's between Diggs and Jefferson plus whatever else the team can get with those cost savings.
Diggs might be slightly better than Jefferson, but he can't make up the difference if it's Diggs versus Jefferson, edge rusher Za'Darius Smith and cornerback Patrick Peterson, the latter two of whom combine to make just under $11 million in 2022. If the Bills had drafted Jefferson, they might have been able to use those savings over the past three years to add more pieces in the secondary, or keep more of their offensive line depth, or sign a more imposing wide receiver in free agency than Jamison Crowder. Maybe they would've had the financial flexibility to trade for Christian McCaffrey at the deadline two weeks ago.
I'm not looking to start a fight here. The Vikings obviously would make this deal again, and the Bills don't have any regrets, either. Both teams are and should be happy with what they did. In a matchup between two similarly productive star wide receivers, though, Jefferson has been the bigger value.
we cant look at the extra picks and how they turned out since if the Vikings had drafted better with those additional the picks would have been more valuable. As a Bills fan if they would rather have Diggs and the other guy, or Jefferson and their other 3 picks and what would they say. I am happy with the results myself, but wish we would have had at least one more player to show for the additional picks. Add on Jefferson playing for relative peanuts compared to what Diggs was set to make, and the lack of drama with JJ... For me its a no brainer. I would do the deal every year without question.
Quote: @JimmyinSD said:
we cant look at the extra picks and how they turned out since if the Vikings had drafted better with those additional the picks would have been more valuable. As a Bills fan if they would rather have Diggs and the other guy, or Jefferson and their other 3 picks and what would they say. I am happy with the results myself, but wish we would have had at least one more player to show for the additional picks. Add on Jefferson playing for relative peanuts compared to what Diggs was set to make, and the lack of drama with JJ... For me its a no brainer. I would do the deal every year without question.
Its the lack of drama that makes Jefferson clear and away the winner in the deal. Pay the man.
Quote: @AGRforever said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
we cant look at the extra picks and how they turned out since if the Vikings had drafted better with those additional the picks would have been more valuable. As a Bills fan if they would rather have Diggs and the other guy, or Jefferson and their other 3 picks and what would they say. I am happy with the results myself, but wish we would have had at least one more player to show for the additional picks. Add on Jefferson playing for relative peanuts compared to what Diggs was set to make, and the lack of drama with JJ... For me its a no brainer. I would do the deal every year without question.
Its the lack of drama that makes Jefferson clear and away the winner in the deal. Pay the man.
what is that going to look like? Adams is 28 avg, Hill is 30 avg... what does JJ take to keep in purple? Can you do that and pay a QB nearly 40, and still have cap to put a decent team around them? you have to pay JJ, but at what expense, the D is barely there and the older guys are the ones holding it together, ATs money is only going to go so far as I am pretty sure he is either gone or on a greatly reduced deal.
Quote: @JimmyinSD said:
@ AGRforever said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
we cant look at the extra picks and how they turned out since if the Vikings had drafted better with those additional the picks would have been more valuable. As a Bills fan if they would rather have Diggs and the other guy, or Jefferson and their other 3 picks and what would they say. I am happy with the results myself, but wish we would have had at least one more player to show for the additional picks. Add on Jefferson playing for relative peanuts compared to what Diggs was set to make, and the lack of drama with JJ... For me its a no brainer. I would do the deal every year without question.
Its the lack of drama that makes Jefferson clear and away the winner in the deal. Pay the man.
what is that going to look like? Adams is 28 avg, Hill is 30 avg... what does JJ take to keep in purple? Can you do that and pay a QB nearly 40, and still have cap to put a decent team around them? you have to pay JJ, but at what expense, the D is barely there and the older guys are the ones holding it together, ATs money is only going to go so far as I am pretty sure he is either gone or on a greatly reduced deal.
Probably in excess of $30M/year average. It'll mean we have to make due with less on defense. Older vets will cycle off in favor of newer young guys. Darrisaw is headed for a big pay day soon as well.
Quote: @JimmyinSD said:
@ AGRforever said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
we cant look at the extra picks and how they turned out since if the Vikings had drafted better with those additional the picks would have been more valuable. As a Bills fan if they would rather have Diggs and the other guy, or Jefferson and their other 3 picks and what would they say. I am happy with the results myself, but wish we would have had at least one more player to show for the additional picks. Add on Jefferson playing for relative peanuts compared to what Diggs was set to make, and the lack of drama with JJ... For me its a no brainer. I would do the deal every year without question.
Its the lack of drama that makes Jefferson clear and away the winner in the deal. Pay the man.
what is that going to look like? Adams is 28 avg, Hill is 30 avg... what does JJ take to keep in purple? Can you do that and pay a QB nearly 40, and still have cap to put a decent team around them? you have to pay JJ, but at what expense, the D is barely there and the older guys are the ones holding it together, ATs money is only going to go so far as I am pretty sure he is either gone or on a greatly reduced deal.
Cap is going to go up....
But yah, this is one reason why I think roster turn-over next year is going to be pretty extensive. More than we might imagine as of today.
To me this is a comparison that is being made
inappropriately, because you need to separate the end results from the trade
itself and no one is looking at the trade itself, they are looking at the end
results. The correct trade for the
Vikings is that the Vikings shouldn’t have traded Diggs at all. The reason the Vikings shouldn’t have traded
Diggs is that you are taking a known high quality player and replacing them
with an unknown draft pick. I’m sure someone
deep into analytics like Kwesi could spit out a detailed analysis into the
value of Diggs, vs the expected value of money and draft picks, but I think the
odds are that we lost the value equation by getting rid of Diggs. Obviously Jefferson is on track to be an all
decade/HOF caliber receiver and that’s great, but the reality is that was a
very unlikely outcome.
Secondly, I think it’s inappropriate in the sense that it
makes it sound like it was a consensual trade between two willing
partners. The Vikings didn’t choose to
trade Diggs shortly after resigning him to an extension. He forced himself out. We shouldn’t be patting ourselves on the back
too hard for making a trade when the choice was made for us and selecting the 4th
or 5th WR in that draft.
For me, I’m just happy that things turned out well.
Quote: @purplefaithful said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@ AGRforever said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
we cant look at the extra picks and how they turned out since if the Vikings had drafted better with those additional the picks would have been more valuable. As a Bills fan if they would rather have Diggs and the other guy, or Jefferson and their other 3 picks and what would they say. I am happy with the results myself, but wish we would have had at least one more player to show for the additional picks. Add on Jefferson playing for relative peanuts compared to what Diggs was set to make, and the lack of drama with JJ... For me its a no brainer. I would do the deal every year without question.
Its the lack of drama that makes Jefferson clear and away the winner in the deal. Pay the man.
what is that going to look like? Adams is 28 avg, Hill is 30 avg... what does JJ take to keep in purple? Can you do that and pay a QB nearly 40, and still have cap to put a decent team around them? you have to pay JJ, but at what expense, the D is barely there and the older guys are the ones holding it together, ATs money is only going to go so far as I am pretty sure he is either gone or on a greatly reduced deal.
Cap is going to go up....
But yah, this is one reason why I think roster turn-over next year is going to be pretty extensive. More than we might imagine as of today.
the cap increase will be offset by increases that FAs all expect to get, problem is the cap increase doesnt seem to cover all the positional increases. The Vikings seem to be slipping a little further every year into the cap trap that ultimately ends up crippling some teams. We have KC under contract for only 1 more season, however his cap is spread clear into 25 to make it work. This isnt something the Vikings ever used to do IIRC, maybe 1 year dead money, but I dont remember that much 2 years past the expiration date. ( like 6.25 in both 24 and 25)
Quote: @JimmyinSD said:
@
the cap increase will be offset by increases that FAs all expect to get, problem is the cap increase doesnt seem to cover all the positional increases. The Vikings seem to be slipping a little further every year into the cap trap that ultimately ends up crippling some teams. We have KC under contract for only 1 more season, however his cap is spread clear into 25 to make it work. This isnt something the Vikings ever used to do IIRC, maybe 1 year dead money, but I dont remember that much 2 years past the expiration date. ( like 6.25 in both 24 and 25)
Just remember how long the Saints were able to keep stringing things along with Brees. Eventually you have to pay the piper, but there's no bank to deny the loan.
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