The state of everything/economy

[AGRforever]

We bought a treadmill off a nice lady yesterday.  Her house was several blocks from Vanderbilt University in Nashville. This house was a 4 and 4 about 25' wide and 3 stories tall.  The definition of a shotgun house.  It was nice but not extravagant. I'm nosy so I chatted with her for a while.  She paid $300k 7 years ago for the house.  She says its now worth +$850k.  She also says she could pull $8k/mo in rent if she moved out of it. 

I've got 2 young teenagers.  How the hell are they going to get ahead in  this world?  You can't buy a house because wages wont support it.  You can't get a job without a college degree of some sort.  We have 80%ish of all the jobs out there in the service sector in the USA......the vast majority low skill/low pay.

No wonder the younger generation doesn't want to work.  What are they working for if they'll never get ahead.  Getting ahead has been the primary driver of my generation working hard.

[Guest]

So question,  how long has it been since you were able to get a decent paying job with no appreciable skills? its pretty much been that way my whole life.  The problem is that some where along the way people started telling the kids they have to spend 100K or more on and education to make ends meet... or that if they dont go to a 4 year school that they are less of a person... or that they are entitled to a 4 year education.  Not every kid is cut out for that type of education, in fact I would wager that most arent and that most of our 4 year plus degrees are waste of time and money.  The amount of worthless degrees in this country is a big reason why this country is in the shape its in.  The housing market is a good example,  both parties have played games with the mortgage rates to try and keep their bases happy and as such we have had to many people spending foolishly on real estate,  that will never be worth what they paid and they will end up on their ass when this bubble once again breaks and housing prices return to where they should be. 

I know a lot of youngsters mid 20s, that have decent paying jobs,  full benefits packages,  and only went to trade or vocational school.  Those jobs are still out that and are a plenty.  Hell look at nursing.  RNs make damn good money,  are in high demand everywhere, and thats a job you can get without a 4 year degree.  Pretty much all the trades are in high demand.  Plenty of options out there if kids are willing to look at the non college/university avenue without thinking they can get by without any skills.

I will say that I am expecting that employers are going to start being forced to offer lower wages to offset the rising costs of the benefits packages,  so you may not make 70k a year starting out, but if your health care and retirement are funded that needs to be calculated in as well,  and not everybody needs spring breaks, top end electronics, and fancy vehicles while in their teens and twenties.... it doesnt hurt to have to suffer when you are young to make you appreciate what you get through hard work.

EDIT: I am not saying these generalizations apply to your kids, but this is what I see quite a bit from the younger crowd these days.

[Guest]

@JimmyinSD said:
So question,  how long has it been since you were able to get a decent paying job with no appreciable skills? its pretty much been that way my whole life.  The problem is that some where along the way people started telling the kids they have to spend 100K or more on and education to make ends meet... or that if they dont go to a 4 year school that they are less of a person... or that they are entitled to a 4 year education.  Not every kid is cut out for that type of education, in fact I would wager that most arent and that most of our 4 year plus degrees are waste of time and money.  The amount of worthless degrees in this country is a big reason why this country is in the shape its in.  The housing market is a good example,  both parties have played games with the mortgage rates to try and keep their bases happy and as such we have had to many people spending foolishly on real estate,  that will never be worth what they paid and they will end up on their ass when this bubble once again breaks and housing prices return to where they should be. 

I know a lot of youngsters mid 20s, that have decent paying jobs,  full benefits packages,  and only went to trade or vocational school.  Those jobs are still out that and are a plenty.  Hell look at nursing.  RNs make damn good money,  are in high demand everywhere, and thats a job you can get without a 4 year degree.  Pretty much all the trades are in high demand.  Plenty of options out there if kids are willing to look at the non college/university avenue without thinking they can get by without any skills.

I will say that I am expecting that employers are going to start being forced to offer lower wages to offset the rising costs of the benefits packages,  so you may not make 70k a year starting out, but if your health care and retirement are funded that needs to be calculated in as well,  and not everybody needs spring breaks, top end electronics, and fancy vehicles while in their teens and twenties.... it doesnt hurt to have to suffer when you are young to make you appreciate what you get through hard work.

Oh no doubt. TN actually gives you 2 years of free tech college assuming you can keep very very minimal standards.  I think like 10 hours of volunteering a year and a 2.5GPA.  There needs to be a reset in expectations for anyone signing on for +$100k in college debt.  There's decent jobs out there but even for me I basically am a salesman.  If I didn't have customers I'd make $0 with my degree.  My degree did help me form the skills it took to do my job but if you really broke it down, I'm not sure that college would be required to do it. 

I can't imagine convincing my kids to take on 6 figure debt for a job that may or may not be out there. 

It'll be interesting to see who ends up holding the bag on all this realestate.  Its not people that have been buying here, its all corporations thinking they're all going to get rich on long term or even short term rentals.   

[Guest]

@AGRforever said:

@JimmyinSD said:
So question,  how long has it been since you were able to get a decent paying job with no appreciable skills? its pretty much been that way my whole life.  The problem is that some where along the way people started telling the kids they have to spend 100K or more on and education to make ends meet... or that if they dont go to a 4 year school that they are less of a person... or that they are entitled to a 4 year education.  Not every kid is cut out for that type of education, in fact I would wager that most arent and that most of our 4 year plus degrees are waste of time and money.  The amount of worthless degrees in this country is a big reason why this country is in the shape its in.  The housing market is a good example,  both parties have played games with the mortgage rates to try and keep their bases happy and as such we have had to many people spending foolishly on real estate,  that will never be worth what they paid and they will end up on their ass when this bubble once again breaks and housing prices return to where they should be. 

I know a lot of youngsters mid 20s, that have decent paying jobs,  full benefits packages,  and only went to trade or vocational school.  Those jobs are still out that and are a plenty.  Hell look at nursing.  RNs make damn good money,  are in high demand everywhere, and thats a job you can get without a 4 year degree.  Pretty much all the trades are in high demand.  Plenty of options out there if kids are willing to look at the non college/university avenue without thinking they can get by without any skills.

I will say that I am expecting that employers are going to start being forced to offer lower wages to offset the rising costs of the benefits packages,  so you may not make 70k a year starting out, but if your health care and retirement are funded that needs to be calculated in as well,  and not everybody needs spring breaks, top end electronics, and fancy vehicles while in their teens and twenties.... it doesnt hurt to have to suffer when you are young to make you appreciate what you get through hard work.

Oh no doubt. TN actually gives you 2 years of free tech college assuming you can keep very very minimal standards.  I think like 10 hours of volunteering a year and a 2.5GPA.  There needs to be a reset in expectations for anyone signing on for +$100k in college debt.  There's decent jobs out there but even for me I basically am a salesman.  If I didn't have customers I'd make $0 with my degree.  My degree did help me form the skills it took to do my job but if you really broke it down, I'm not sure that college would be required to do it. 

I can't imagine convincing my kids to take on 6 figure debt for a job that may or may not be out there. 

It'll be interesting to see who ends up holding the bag on all this real estate.  Its not people that have been buying here, its all corporations thinking they're all going to get rich on long term or even short term rentals.   

I think you have hit the nail on the head,  you or I dont need college to do our jobs,  or likely even CC or trade school,  but it gave us skills that have made us more employable.  The trades really dont need you to go to 2 years of school,  they will ultimately teach you what they need you to know about their trade,  but a couple years of schooling will show employers that you are committed to your trade,  and you are coming in knowing the basics of your desired field so you are then ready to be taught what you need to know to your job.  I think some have the illusion that just because they went to school for a few years ( or more) that they are some how now immediately employable at the same level as somebody that has been doing the job for years...and they arent.  Experience still trumps schooling in most fields IMO,  which I why I tell any hs age kid that will listed to look at the job markets, look at the education it takes to get into that field, and see if there is room and if it make financial sense.. most cases it doesnt.  There are hundreds of 2 year programs that will deliver as good or better careers as the 4 year programs, and most of the 2 year jobs wont get outsourced to  cheaper foreign firms or replaced by automation.

[Guest]

Yup, my young men are growing up in a world without much to look forward to.  But 4 of my 5 adult boys have jobs, the other got had a job contract once he graduated college but got hosed by covid.  He now does some small contracts and a part time job.  Only 1 of the 4 has a degree, the others are making their own way, 1 running his own business, the other 2 working in the construction industry.  One of those actually runs a crew for certain types of jobs.  

So they make hay while the sun still shines.  When it doesn't, we will adjust accordingly.  Sucks they won't be able to afford a house anytime soon, but again, we will survive.  And if you show up on time and have a work ethic, there will be work.

[Guest]

@greediron said:
Yup, my young men are growing up in a world without much to look forward to.  But 4 of my 5 adult boys have jobs, the other got had a job contract once he graduated college but got hosed by covid.  He now does some small contracts and a part time job.  Only 1 of the 4 has a degree, the others are making their own way, 1 running his own business, the other 2 working in the construction industry.  One of those actually runs a crew for certain types of jobs.  

So they make hay while the sun still shines.  When it doesn't, we will adjust accordingly.  Sucks they won't be able to afford a house anytime soon, but again, we will survive.  And if you show up on time and have a work ethic, there will be work.

The fear anyone has in contracting should be when the reinflated housing bubble crashes which it is doing.  WTF are they going to do for work? 

Not sure how it is where you guys live but there are apartments going everywhere there is available land here.  You'd think we'd run out of people at some point but they keep showing up to fill them I guess.
I'd be careful being a contractor right now.  I could fully see a situation where mid construction on a job the money drys up and the contractor ends up eating the labor and/or materials. 

[Guest]

@AGRforever said:

@greediron said:
Yup, my young men are growing up in a world without much to look forward to.  But 4 of my 5 adult boys have jobs, the other got had a job contract once he graduated college but got hosed by covid.  He now does some small contracts and a part time job.  Only 1 of the 4 has a degree, the others are making their own way, 1 running his own business, the other 2 working in the construction industry.  One of those actually runs a crew for certain types of jobs.  

So they make hay while the sun still shines.  When it doesn't, we will adjust accordingly.  Sucks they won't be able to afford a house anytime soon, but again, we will survive.  And if you show up on time and have a work ethic, there will be work.

The fear anyone has in contracting should be when the reinflated housing bubble crashes which it is doing.  WTF are they going to do for work? 

Not sure how it is where you guys live but there are apartments going everywhere there is available land here.  You'd think we'd run out of people at some point but they keep showing up to fill them I guess.
I'd be careful being a contractor right now.  I could fully see a situation where mid construction on a job the money drys up and the contractor ends up eating the labor and/or materials. 

I see it a bit the other way,   those existing home prices are going to have to drop a long long way before a guy couldnt build new for less.  Material costs are dropping and the only thing keeping the building costs up are the lingering people still willing to borrow at the higher rates,  IMO there is still a lot of cash that is on the sidelines waiting for the crazies to get out of the market,  there will still be work,  it may not be as profitable as it has been,  but I know of quite a few people that are just sitting on the sidelines but have the cash to build.  in the meantime... its kind of nice to see my sideline money actually earn some interest for a change, especially since my money in the game has gotten an asskicking like I havent seen in a long damn time.  I am starting to think I am going to be leaving more money on the sideline and putting less in the game until those running the game find a comfort level... and I dont think this election cycle will provide any comfort.

EDIT:  and yes,  where are all the people for these housing units going up?  small town by near where I live has about a half dozen places going up right now and each one looks to be about 40 to 50 units per building,  no new employers coming to town or current ones expanding,  its crazy.  All I can think is that when this bubble breaks they think they can lower the rent enough to keep people in them vs buying deflated homes at high interest.

[Guest]

@AGRforever said:

We bought a treadmill off a nice lady yesterday.  Her house was several blocks from Vanderbilt University in Nashville. This house was a 4 and 4 about 25' wide and 3 stories tall.  The definition of a shotgun house.  It was nice but not extravagant. I'm nosy so I chatted with her for a while.  She paid $300k 7 years ago for the house.  She says its now worth +$850k.  She also says she could pull $8k/mo in rent if she moved out of it. 

I've got 2 young teenagers.  How the hell are they going to get ahead in  this world?  You can't buy a house because wages wont support it.  You can't get a job without a college degree of some sort.  We have 80%ish of all the jobs out there in the service sector in the USA......the vast majority low skill/low pay.

No wonder the younger generation doesn't want to work.  What are they working for if they'll never get ahead.  Getting ahead has been the primary driver of my generation working hard.

yes a person  can get a good job   example my oldest son started his own flooring tile construction company. he is averaging  a profit of almost 20000 dollars a month. the kicker here is in a couple months he turns a rip old age of 20

[Guest]

@AGRforever said:

@greediron said:
Yup, my young men are growing up in a world without much to look forward to.  But 4 of my 5 adult boys have jobs, the other got had a job contract once he graduated college but got hosed by covid.  He now does some small contracts and a part time job.  Only 1 of the 4 has a degree, the others are making their own way, 1 running his own business, the other 2 working in the construction industry.  One of those actually runs a crew for certain types of jobs.  

So they make hay while the sun still shines.  When it doesn't, we will adjust accordingly.  Sucks they won't be able to afford a house anytime soon, but again, we will survive.  And if you show up on time and have a work ethic, there will be work.

The fear anyone has in contracting should be when the reinflated housing bubble crashes which it is doing.  WTF are they going to do for work? 

Not sure how it is where you guys live but there are apartments going everywhere there is available land here.  You'd think we'd run out of people at some point but they keep showing up to fill them I guess.
I'd be careful being a contractor right now.  I could fully see a situation where mid construction on a job the money drys up and the contractor ends up eating the labor and/or materials. 

It will hit here eventually, but it seems like everyone leaving CA is coming here to Idaho, so our bubble hasn't burst yet.

And they well know that their occupation won't be around forever.  But they are getting great skills and as I said, making hay while the sun still shines.  And yes, I certainly wouldn't take a job without substantial money up front.  They won't have trouble finding work, they are young and hard working.  Always a shame that once they get to a useful age, they want to go work elsewhere for money rather than at home.

[Guest]

I saw this today and made me think of this thread....