Posts: 1,860
Threads: 1,860
Joined: May 2013
Reputation:
0
I took this from somewhere else but it seems to hit the nail on the head for the most part:
The economist Kwesi thinks he's found a market inefficiency (or two) ![[Image: renderTimingPixel.png]](https://www.redditstatic.com/desktop2x/img/renderTimingPixel.png) " With the Blacklock and Reagor trades - and checking into Mims - Kwesi clearly believes that high draft picks who underperform on their first team are good buy-low investments.This seems to be coupled with a belief that the discount rate on future mid-round picks is too low. He's dealt a bunch of future non-premium picks, including the Akayleb Evans trade, where he gave a future 4th to get a guy he coveted now.
Obviously the jury is out on all these moves, but these appear to be two core tenets of our new front office philosophy. Look for more moves along these lines."
Future picks are easy to give up until you get to the draft and you have no ammo to maneuver around.
Still, gambling on a former high pick probably gives you better odds of hitting than gambling on whatever player you might find on day three, so I agree with it for the most part.
Both of those players still have a degree of upside. It's grand larceny if a light goes on for those players.
Quote: @"MaroonBells" said:
Future picks are easy to give up until you get to the draft and you have no ammo to maneuver around.
Still, gambling on a former high pick probably gives you better odds of hitting than gambling on whatever player you might find on day three, so I agree with it for the most part.
Both of those players still have a degree of upside. It's grand larceny if a light goes on for those players.
Its all gambling to some extent. Fans sometimes forget the misses of 4th thru 7th rounders in reality but love the idea of having a ton of picks. But fans also love guys like Kyle Sloter when they have great preseasons, complain when they are cut and yet go on toward nothing careers which validates the team move. And complain again when guys like Anthony Harris leave, go one and done with their new teams, also validating what the team did.
I'm certainly not saying that NFL GMs and coaches know exactly what they are doing all the time....we know that isn't the case. But they are certainly operating off a LOT more information than fans are privy to. And I like that the new Viking regime is doing it their way, for better or worse.
Quote: @"MaroonBells" said:
Future picks are easy to give up until you get to the draft and you have no ammo to maneuver around.
Still, gambling on a former high pick probably gives you better odds of hitting than gambling on whatever player you might find on day three, so I agree with it for the most part.
Both of those players still have a degree of upside. It's grand larceny if a light goes on for those players.
I see it as a safe bet...giving up a seventh round pick for a former number one player...really, what are the odds for a seventh round pick making the team anyways.
Quote: @"ArizonaViking" said:
@"MaroonBells" said:
Future picks are easy to give up until you get to the draft and you have no ammo to maneuver around.
Still, gambling on a former high pick probably gives you better odds of hitting than gambling on whatever player you might find on day three, so I agree with it for the most part.
Both of those players still have a degree of upside. It's grand larceny if a light goes on for those players.
I see it as a safe bet...giving up a seventh round pick for a former number one player...really, what are the odds for a seventh round pick making the team anyways.
You don't have to convince me. I think the NFL draft pick is the most overvalued commodity in all of sports. This is an extreme example of drafting ineptitude, but look at the Raiders. They had THREE 1st rounders in 2019. All three busts. They had two in 2020. Both busts. One in 2021. Bust. And not just mild busts like Garrett Bradbury, but big, glaring, ugly busts, most of whom are out of the NFL.
I worry about the approach on buying low on former high draft picks. Though I imagine Kwesi has stats supporting that approach, it seems to me the one thing you can't measure is how a large sum of money affects a player's motivation and drive. I'd rather have a low draft pick who through commitment and drive overachieves than a high draft pick who failed at his first team by underachieving.
|
