A (way too early) 2 rd mock for Vikings...

[purplefaithful]

With the Senior Bowl having come and gone, the Super Bowl this weekend, and the scouting combine kicking off in less than a month, NFL draft season is in full swing.
And what does that mean? Mock drafts. All kinds of mock drafts. I'll have a story coming this week that looks at a variety of players mocked to the Vikings at No. 12, but for now, I wanted to discuss a specific mock. This is a new two-rounder from ESPN's Jordan Reid.
Here's who he has the Vikings taking with the 12th and 46th overall picks, along with his explanation and my analysis.
No. 12: David Ojabo, EDGE, Michigan

Under the previous front-office regime, the Vikings relied heavily on their ability to develop Day 2 and Day 3 players at defensive end, which left the team's depth razor-thin at the position outside of Danielle Hunter. If new general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah uses the same model as the Browns, where he was the past few years, Minnesota could value the age of prospects (22 and younger) and their college production, physical traits and potential upside. Ojabo's combination of potential and youth make him a clear target for the Vikings at a position of need. They haven't selected an edge rusher in the first two rounds since Erasmus James in 2005. 
Biggest needs: CB, EDGE, IOL

Analysis: As Reid mentions, the Vikings never drafted edge rushers before the third round under Rick Spielman. It's just not something they ever seemed to consider. And when you're landing players like Brian Robison, Everson Griffen, and Danielle Hunter in the third and fourth rounds, that strategy works. But when those picks start turning into Scott Crichton, Jalyn Holmes, and D.J. Wonnum, it doesn't work and your depth becomes non-existent. The Vikings haven't drafted and developed a quality DE since Hunter in 2015. I know Wonnum had eight sacks last season, but turn on the film and look at the advanced metrics and it's easy to tell that he isn't a starting-caliber player at this point in his career.
There's solid evidence that suggests the arrival of Kwesi Adofo-Mensah will mean the Vikings become much more open to using premium draft capital on edge rushers. While working for the 49ers and Browns, Adofo-Mensah saw the impact top picks Nick Bosa and Myles Garrett had on those defenses. He was in SF when they spent first-round picks on defensive linemen four times in five years from 2015-19, taking Arik Armstead, DeForest Buckner, Solomon Thomas, and Bosa. The Vikings don't pick high enough to land Aidan Hutchinson or Kayvon Thibodeaux — who are seen as the potential Bosa, Garrett-type players in this class — but that doesn't mean there won't be intriguing options available at No. 12. 
The second tier at the position seems to be comprised of Purdue's George Karlaftis and Michigan's David Ojabo. Karlaftis is the more polished player right now (and may well gone by 12), but Ojabo seems to have the higher ceiling. He's only been playing football since his junior year of high school, and came out of nowhere in 2021 with 11 sacks and five forced fumbles. Ojabo's size, athleticism, and instincts give him a ridiculous amount of upside. He's a former track athlete in high school with crazy burst and a nose for the football. If he continues to develop and gain experience, he could wind up being as good as any edge rusher in the class. The fit works well in Minnesota with the Vikings likely to switch to a 3-4 defense this year.
Also available: Cincinnati cornerback Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner is still on the board here and would be awfully tempting, but less so if you think you can still land a strong CB prospect in the second round. EDGE Jermaine Johnson, an Eden Prairie native, is making a push towards the top 15. QBs Matt Corral and Sam Howell would be risky picks, but it might be worth a shot.


No. 46: Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida

Elam has received mixed reviews from NFL evaluators I've spoken to; some see him going as high as the late first round, while others seem him in Round 2. At 6-foot-2, 195 pounds, Elam is a big press-man corner. With Minnesota in search of cornerback help and Elam turning 21 years old a week after the draft, he checks a lot of the boxes for the Vikings' scouting department. He had six picks in three seasons for the Gators. 
Biggest needs: CB, EDGE, IOL

Analysis: Simply put, the Vikings need cornerback help. Because recent first-round picks Mike Hughes and Jeff Gladney flamed out for different reasons, the team's only long-term piece at the position is Cameron Dantzler, who has been somewhat inconsistent through his first two seasons. Even if the Vikings bring back Patrick Peterson or dip into the free agent market at corner, they need to address the long-term future of their secondary.
If Elam lasts this long, he'd have the potential to be a steal. The long, physical Florida corner has gotten some first-round buzz, but what range of the draft he ends up being picked in is still up in the air. There are some concerns about Elam's consistency as a tackler and his ability to stick with quick, twitchy receivers in man coverage. He's physical and talented in press man, but his ball skills and football IQ might make him best suited to play more zone coverage.
Also available: QBs Carson Strong and Desmond Ridder are available here, as are Penn State EDGE Arnold Ebiketie and Alabama LB Christian Harris.


https://www.si.com/nfl/vikings/news/viki...mock-draft

[Guest]

It will be interesting to see how mock drafts for the Vikings change depending on the chosen DC.  So far, it looks like a lot of 3-4 coordinators.  BTW, Wonnum might be better in a 3-4 -- this is one opinion before he was drafted: "Wonnum has experience playing standing or with a hand down but is best suited as a rush linebacker in a 3-4." 

[Guest]

Jordan is one of the best.

Y'all need to start getting comfortable with the idea of a 3-4. Ojabo in the 1st, Jones in the 2nd, Bryant in the 3rd, re-sign P2.

[Guest]

I had to read this twice to believe it:

They haven't selected an edge rusher in the first two rounds since Erasmus James in 2005 

[Guest]

I have no issues with going DE in the first,  especially if we try and change to a 3-4,  honestly I still think they need to target the higher priced players ( larger cap hits once they are off their rookied deals)  in the early rounds where they are most likely to hit on studs that contribute early on,  vs positions that can more affordably filled through free agency.  On offense it would be QBs, OTs, and WRs,  in that order,  on defense it would be a little harder to choose order,  but LB, DL and corner,  dont waste high round picks on Safeties ( even though they are the best players on the field in most cases).  You may pay top dollar for a FA OG,  but that is still about 20% less than what the top OT will make,  so lets keep the higher priced positions on rookie or team friendly deals as much as possible by targeting them earlier in the draft,  and using FA to address the cheaper contract positions even though we may end up "over paying" those guys, it will still be cheaper in comparison.

basically what I am saying is,  let fix our IOL issues through FA and take a few fliers on middle to later round players,  but we need to use our top 4 picks to address areas that would free up more cap space.  Imagine being able to deal Hunter,  add back a couple early day 2 picks, and pick up 20 million in cap space.  it may not pay off year 1, but over the next couple years it could pay huge dividends if you hit on this years player, plus the addition of those higher selections adding their own upgrades to positional strength as well as cap savings.

[Guest]

@"JimmyinSD" said:
I have no issues with going DE in the first,  especially if we try and change to a 3-4,  honestly I still think they need to target the higher priced players ( larger cap hits once they are off their rookied deals)  in the early rounds where they are most likely to hit on studs that contribute early on,  vs positions that can more affordably filled through free agency.  On offense it would be QBs, OTs, and WRs,  in that order,  on defense it would be a little harder to choose order,  but LB, DL and corner,  dont waste high round picks on Safeties ( even though they are the best players on the field in most cases).  You may pay top dollar for a FA OG,  but that is still about 20% less than what the top OT will make,  so lets keep the higher priced positions on rookie or team friendly deals as much as possible by targeting them earlier in the draft,  and using FA to address the cheaper contract positions even though we may end up "over paying" those guys, it will still be cheaper in comparison.

basically what I am saying is,  let fix our IOL issues through FA and take a few fliers on middle to later round players,  but we need to use our top 4 picks to address areas that would free up more cap space.  Imagine being able to deal Hunter,  add back a couple early day 2 picks, and pick up 20 million in cap space.  it may not pay off year 1, but over the next couple years it could pay huge dividends if you hit on this years player, plus the addition of those higher selections adding their own upgrades to positional strength as well as cap savings.

You're right on this strategy and I think this is where KAM helps us out too as he probably analyzes teams contracts, how well they do, and then how do we apply that towards our team. There is certainly no clear strategy on how to win in the NFL (Unless you've had Tom Brady for 20 years) but this is a good start.

[Guest]

Just going to park this here, sad stat of the day,  the Vikings have not been above a .500 win percentage for over 700 days.

[Guest]

I just don't see moving to a 3-4 as a good idea. There's maybe a half dozen teams in the league that run a true 3-4 anymore, and even less that run it well. Bears are moving back to a 43 under Eberflus. None of the teams in this years championship games ran 3-4's. It's about putting your best players in positions to make plays, and for us that's Kendricks/Hunter and moving to a 3-4 is not doing that. 

[Guest]

@"supafreak84" said:
I just don't see moving to a 3-4 as a good idea. There's maybe a half dozen teams in the league that run a true 3-4 anymore, and even less that run it well. Bears are moving back to a 43 under Eberflus. None of the teams in this years championship games ran 3-4's. It's about putting your best players in positions to make plays, and for us that's Kendricks/Hunter and moving to a 3-4 is not doing that. 

Rams run a 3-4. About a dozen teams run a 3-4.

Otherwise, you're spot on...

 

[Guest]

@"JustinTime18™" said:

@"supafreak84" said:
I just don't see moving to a 3-4 as a good idea. There's maybe a half dozen teams in the league that run a true 3-4 anymore, and even less that run it well. Bears are moving back to a 43 under Eberflus. None of the teams in this years championship games ran 3-4's. It's about putting your best players in positions to make plays, and for us that's Kendricks/Hunter and moving to a 3-4 is not doing that. 

Rams run a 3-4. About a
 dozen teams run a 3-4.

Otherwise, you're spot on...

 

Is it really though, because they seem to run a lot of different formations to create matches for Aaron Donald including some Tampa 2? I count New England, Denver, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Baltimore and Arizona as teams that will be in a 34 base next year. Who am I missing?