12-20-2021, 04:43 PM
One of the most surprising scores of the NFL season also meant bad news for the Vikings on Sunday.The Saints' 9-0 win over Tampa Bay on Sunday night moved New Orleans to 7-7, a half-game ahead of all the 6-7 teams (Vikings included) that are in pursuit of the final wild card spot.
The game was in Tampa, and the Bucs entered as 11.5-point favorites as they vied for home field advantage in the NFC. Instead, the New Orleans defense shut them out.
As someone who monitors the Vikings' playoff chances closely — some would say with a little too much zeal — I can tell you exactly how damaging Sunday's games were to their hopes.
Just a week ago, the Vikings had a 33% chance to make the postseason as things stood at the moment and about an 80% chance to make the playoffs if they went 3-1 in their final four games (both per FiveThirtyEight).
Now that same predictive model gives Minnesota just a 21% chance to make the playoffs as of now and just a 48% chance even if they go 3-1 with two wins over the Bears, a win over the Rams next week and a loss to the Packers.
Other predictive models are similarly pessimistic. Football Outsiders has the Vikings with a 24% chance and ESPN's FPI has them at 22% to reach the playoffs.
The No. 6 seed also was pushed further out of reach over the weekend when San Francisco beat Atlanta to move to 8-6.
Still, in a landscape of uncertainty, two things are clear:
*A Vikings loss Monday night would pretty much sink any realistic path. Their playoff odds would plummet to just 6% with a defeat at the hands of the shorthanded Bears.
*If the Vikings manage to win their final four games, they are almost assured of a berth. Their playoff odds are 99% with a 4-0 finish.
But if we thought at one point that a 3-1 finish and 9-8 overall record would be enough to reach the playoffs, now it's basically a coin flip.
https://www.startribune.com/vikings-play...600128840/
The game was in Tampa, and the Bucs entered as 11.5-point favorites as they vied for home field advantage in the NFC. Instead, the New Orleans defense shut them out.
As someone who monitors the Vikings' playoff chances closely — some would say with a little too much zeal — I can tell you exactly how damaging Sunday's games were to their hopes.
Just a week ago, the Vikings had a 33% chance to make the postseason as things stood at the moment and about an 80% chance to make the playoffs if they went 3-1 in their final four games (both per FiveThirtyEight).
Now that same predictive model gives Minnesota just a 21% chance to make the playoffs as of now and just a 48% chance even if they go 3-1 with two wins over the Bears, a win over the Rams next week and a loss to the Packers.
Other predictive models are similarly pessimistic. Football Outsiders has the Vikings with a 24% chance and ESPN's FPI has them at 22% to reach the playoffs.
The No. 6 seed also was pushed further out of reach over the weekend when San Francisco beat Atlanta to move to 8-6.
Still, in a landscape of uncertainty, two things are clear:
*A Vikings loss Monday night would pretty much sink any realistic path. Their playoff odds would plummet to just 6% with a defeat at the hands of the shorthanded Bears.
*If the Vikings manage to win their final four games, they are almost assured of a berth. Their playoff odds are 99% with a 4-0 finish.
But if we thought at one point that a 3-1 finish and 9-8 overall record would be enough to reach the playoffs, now it's basically a coin flip.
https://www.startribune.com/vikings-play...600128840/