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StickyBun · 08-31-2021, 08:23 AM

Not sure what to make of this, but here it is:

[Image: b3h4ni76tkk71.jpg]

08-31-2021, 10:09 AM

What was expected accuracy, and who established that value? Is it the same for all or was it a different value for each QB?

08-31-2021, 10:12 AM

Quote: @JimmyinSD said:
What was expected accuracy, and who established that value? Is it the same for all or was it a different value for each QB?

Excellent questions! As you can imagine, this is a PFF.com special. 'Let's create a metric that no one else uses, is proprietary to us, makes us look smart yet makes little to zero practical football sense'.

08-31-2021, 11:21 AM

Mike Tannenbaum

@RealTannenbaum

·15m

Rookie QBs in the preseason:

Lawrence: 31/44 323 yds 2 TDs 2 turnover worthy plays (TWPs)

Wilson: 17/22 203 yds 2 TDs 0 TWPs

Lance: 19/44 276 yds 3 TDs 5 TWPs

Fields: 32/53 290 yds 2 TD 2 TWPs

Jones: 39/58 412 yds 1 TD 0 TWPs

This might have more value.

08-31-2021, 11:22 AM

Quote: @JimmyinSD said:
What was expected accuracy, and who established that value? Is it the same for all or was it a different value for each QB?

From what I can tell, it's based on how open the WR is and how hard of a throw it is. So if the receiver is blanketed, you'd expect the QB to have a lower completion percentage. If the receiver is wide open, you'd expect a higher completion percentage. It's something along those lines.

08-31-2021, 11:31 AM

Quote: @StickyBun said:

@JimmyinSD said:
What was expected accuracy, and who established that value? Is it the same for all or was it a different value for each QB?
Excellent questions! As you can imagine, this is a PFF.com special. 'Let's create a metric that no one else uses, is proprietary to us, makes us look smart yet makes little to zero practical football sense'.

If I remember right, this was developed by the guys at football outsiders and adopted by pretty much everyone, including NFL teams.

It basically says that the outcome of a pass is determined by more than just the QB. The receiver, the DB, have a say as well. Accuracy over expected focuses solely on the accuracy of the throw, not if the throw was actually completed or not.

08-31-2021, 12:06 PM

Completely anecdotal from some Joe Schmoe, but I watched a lot of the most recent Jags game. Trevor Lawrence looked awesome and they were without 3 starting OL, 2 starting WR, and their 1st round RB who's out for the year.
I might be crazy but I think they'll give the Colts a run for 2nd in that division this year. I also don't think Tennessee will be as good as last year. Texans are a diaper.

08-31-2021, 12:29 PM

Huh, guess you can have a Matthew Stafford bod and still be pretty good at football. Lots of people liked to rip Mac Jones for what he isn't... but fail to recognize all the little things he does that go into being a good NFL QB.

08-31-2021, 12:49 PM

As long as the stats say the Bear's shat the bed. I'm good with it.

08-31-2021, 12:54 PM

Quote: @Wetlander said:
Huh, guess you can have a Matthew Stafford bod and still be pretty good at football. Lots of people liked to rip Mac Jones for what he isn't... but fail to recognize all the little things he does that go into being a good NFL QB.

He may end up being the best of the bunch...And I wouldn't have touched him in the top 15. All because he had too much talent around him @ Bama.