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OK, i just saw this tweet (below) and it's going to inspire one of my rants. Why do people get upset when someone dares to defy consensus when it comes to the draft?
This despite the fact that there are years, DECADES, of proof that the consensus is always wrong. Not sometimes, not most of the time, but ALWAYS wrong.
Someone dares to think that Toney might be better than D Smith and the twitter machine goes nuts. Despite the fact that both Toney and Smith are considered 1st rounders. Despite the fact that just last year, the 5th taken receiver proved to be the best. And the 6th and 7th ended up playing better than the 1st, 2nd and 4th taken. Despite the fact that the year before that, the 9th receiver taken was the best of them all. By far. Despite the fact that in 2016, Coleman, Doctson, Treadwell, all 1st rounders, all busts. All out of the NFL. All three receivers taken in the 2nd round that year, still playing. All starters, one (Thomas) among the best receivers in the NFL.
In fact, i just looked at the top 7 receivers in the NFL going into 2021. One was the 5th WR taken in his draft. One was the 9th, one was the 6th, one was the 20th (Diggs), one was the 8th and number one was the 18th taken.
Despite ALL this, if someone dares to think that one 1st rounder might be better than another 1st rounder, it's pert'near blasphemous.
https://twitter.com/IanKenyonNFL/status/...41730?s=20
Well, guys who have checkmarks have checkmarks for a reason...they create twitter havoc and tense conversation. That's 2021 social media for ya
As someone who has been very interested in the draft since 1973, the only thing I can say with certainty is there is no advantage to conventional thinking. Year after year consensus thought is proven wrong. I don't see analytics as any type of cures all.
I just follow a few guys closely, as they get it right more often than most. Brugler, McGinn, and a couple others.
He's fun to watch, but he reminds me of a smaller version of Flashy. You don't see any plays with him
downfield in the passing game. Quick hitches, reverses, sweeps, etc. He's more like a Scat Back.
As you mentioned @Maroon the consensus is ALWAYS wrong. Even last year I would have told you that I'd take Jerry Juedy over JJ (ok that is still way better than some) but the draft is an inexact science.
cant measure heart, work ethic or passion
Players from college need at least ONE strong intangible/tangible asset that will work in the NFL if they aren't extremely talented. And the talented ones need to be mentally strong, not intimidated by the speed and strength of NFL players. All the heart and passion in the world won't help if you can't get open in the NFL as a WR. It won't help if your functional strength and agility as a OT is a half step slow and you get routinely overpowered. It won't help if you can't get past taking false steps as a LB in coverage.
The X factor is who can continue to get better at the next level and make their game NFL level. Its an impossible question to answer because you are making projections from a college level that is different than the NFL. You can watch a college QB who is successful and any layperson can see that WRers are usually WIDE OPEN compared to the NFL. Impossible to project if a college QB will ever get comfortable or be successful at throwing into tiny windows which takes consistent accuracy.
But you're right, there really shouldn't be anything 'consensual' about slotting guys on a Draft board.
Quote: @"TBro" said:
He's fun to watch, but he reminds me of a smaller version of Flashy. You don't see any plays with him
downfield in the passing game. Quick hitches, reverses, sweeps, etc. He's more like a Scat Back.
I'm referring less to Toney over Smith than the reaction people have to an opinion outside of conventional wisdom. I don't have Toney over Smith, but it shouldn't surprise anyone in the least if Toney had the better NFL career.
Quote: @"Geoff Nichols" said:
As you mentioned @Maroon the consensus is ALWAYS wrong. Even last year I would have told you that I'd take Jerry Juedy over JJ (ok that is still way better than some) but the draft is an inexact science.
I think I'm the only one on the planet who had JJ ranked at the top...and neither Ruggs or Raegor in his top five. Actually, when you look at my top 5: JJ, Lamb, Aiyuk, Jeudy, Higgins/Shenault (tie) would you take them off the board any differently now? It's still early, but that's pretty damn close to how they performed their first seasons. So I've learned to trust my gut, no matter how crazy it sounds. :-)
Quote: @"MaroonBells" said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
As you mentioned @Maroon the consensus is ALWAYS wrong. Even last year I would have told you that I'd take Jerry Juedy over JJ (ok that is still way better than some) but the draft is an inexact science.
I think I'm the only one on the planet who had JJ ranked at the top...and neither Ruggs or Raegor in his top five. Actually, when you look at my top 5: JJ, Lamb, Aiyuk, Jeudy, Higgins/Shenault (tie) would you take them off the board any differently now? It's still early, but that's pretty damn close to how they performed their first seasons. So I've learned to trust my gut, no matter how crazy it sounds. :-)
Thank God the Eagles have Roseman as their GM who is one of the worst drafting GM's in the league. Raegor was such a dumb pick when JJ was just low hanging fruit sitting right in front of them.
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