spinoff "poll" of my thread: Is this the year to move up for a QB?

[minny65]

Original OP Poll with 11 votes.

5 votes for moving up to 5 if "our" guy is there. 
6 votes for not moving up.

I just don't see a move up, if our guy is there, as an indictment on Kirk Cousins at all.  So we are committed to him for 2 more years at a high cost no matter what we do in the draft.  I think Kirk is very capable of getting us to the Super Bowl and winning.  But is contract and numbers for the next 2 years is a sunk cost and should not influence the rare opportunity to think beyond 2 years at the most important position.

But for those that are saying they would draft one of the QB's that fall at 14 but not move up I actually don't understand that thinking.  Unless the Viking brass does all it's due diligence on all Top4/5 QB's and they are equal so we just sit and wait for one of them to fall?  What I have been proposing is to evaluate all of the Top 4/5/6 and commit to the guy you want because he jumps out at you.  Now I am not just saying willy nilly give it all up for Lawrence at #1 or even get closer then pick 5 because we don't have enough capital to give up to get higher and Cincy is in the 5 spot and not drafting a QB.  So my thought process/proposal is to target pick 5 if...if...the QB you have identified falls to 5 and you know won't fall to 14.  That is my premise: 1: only give up capital to get 5 and 2: only if your guy is there.  For me, it remains Wilson.  But for Spelly and the brass it might be Fields or Lance IDK.  

I can see many don't want to "sacrifice" the capital because with that capital given up to get to 5 they hope to draft a couple starters that could put us over the top instead.  

But do we know what Capital we would have to give up?

Let's use the Chiefs moving up for Mahomes to 10 from 27.

Chiefs gave up pick 27, 3rd round pick in 2017, 1st round pick in 2018 

I would think we might have to give up a little more to go from 14 to pick 5 and not sure of how much.  

I have run an ton of mock drafts mostly on PFF and have been able to move up to pick 5 with a couple different scenarios.  I am very curious to see how many folks would move up to pick 5 (again with my 2 requirements above).

Each scenario is without giving up our 14 pick this year and they accepted by Cincy. Of course I am most interested in the 6 folks who said they wouldn't give up that much capital.  

1 scenario give up:  2021 pick 78 and 119 and 2022 2nd rounder.
2 scenario give up: 2021 78 and 119 and 5th rounder 2022 and 4th rounder 2023.  

[Guest]

2020 draft is over,  we did OK

[Guest]

@JimmyinSD said:
2020 draft is over,  we did OK

I will edit

[Guest]

Interesting with only 6 votes so far.

Even moving up to the 5 pick, and keeping our 14th and 90th pick,3 posters would not move up to 5 for a QB that the Vikings deem worthy?  Very surprising to me. 
My interpretation of that is that with pick 78, 119 and the picks the following years are enough to get us over the hump for Cousins within the next 2 years. 
All draft picks are a crapshoot and as the rounds go on the less chance of a becoming a starter. So, the 3 posters believe giving up our 3rd (78 pick) and a 4th rounder (119 pick) this year and the others are too much riskto take for a QB we think could be a franchise QB?

I don't remember the numbers exactly but the chance of a 4th rounder becoming an average starter are way less then 10%.  I think a 3rd rounder is about 10%.  First and second rounders are around 30%  to become everyday starters. 

Geoff talked about the last few years of first round QB's becoming "top" 15 QB's being around 20%  and that was being kind because it really depends on the number of potential 1st rounders, meaning some drafts have 2, others have 3 or a few might have 4.  This draft will have 5 and possibly 6.  So if you trust our brass to hone in on that 1 guy at the 5th pick if they fall a handful of you guys would not take the risk of 20% of hitting on a future starting QB (Top 15) with the alternative of taking the lower risk in round 3 an 4 for the next few drafts.  Interesting and surprising to me.  

So with that, that means, it is better to take the the risk of a 3rd and 4th rounder (and the other following years) and have the chance of of giving Kirk those picks to put the team over the hump.  Even though we keep pick 14 and 90 this year to fill the current holes?