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The cap in 2012 was $120.6 million and has climbed each year since then, jumping by at least $10 million every season since 2014. It reached $198.2 million this past season, and even as the Vikings have paid lucrative deals to many of their draft picks while making Kirk Cousins the league's first player with a fully-guaranteed contract in 2018, they've largely been able to circumvent cap trouble thanks to vice president of football operations Rob Brzezinski's nimble cap management and an ownership group willing to spend well over the cap.
According to sources with access to NFL Players Association salary data, the Wilfs have spent at least $14 million more than the cap amount, in terms of actual cash paid to players, in every season since 2017. This year, with the Vikings' adjusted cap sitting at $198.4 million, the team spent $218.2 million in cash, making frequent use of signing bonuses as an effective (though expensive) accounting maneuver to stay under the cap while rewarding top performers.
When the 2021 league year starts in March — just after the one-year anniversary of the coronavirus pandemic shutting down the sports world — there could be big changes that make things more challenging for teams like the Vikings.
New TV deals are coming once again, possibly as soon as this offseason, and bullish projections about the league's financial future could offset some of the losses from a season where many teams (including the Vikings) played home games with few or no fans in the stands. But while players and teams likely want to delay the financial impact of lost revenue from the 2020 season, owners might not. As the well-worn business idiom says, cash now is better than cash later.
The league can set the salary cap as low as $175 million this year, and is reportedly considering a $180 million figure. For the purposes of this analysis, we'll use the $176 million amount Over the Cap has projected for the 2021 league year.
The Vikings have $193.3 million of cap commitments on their 2021 books, with $4.5 million of cap space to carry over from 2020. In other words, they'd have to shed about $12.8 million by the start of the league year; only nine teams need to cut more cap space.
The most obvious thing the Vikings have in common with those nine teams — the Saints, Eagles, Falcons, Steelers, Rams, Packers, Raiders, Chiefs and Texans — is their quarterback cost. Cousins' $31 million cap charge is actually only the ninth-highest in the league for 2021 (counting Drew Brees' current deal with the Saints), but his contract is one of the many QB deals that consumed more than 10% of his team's cap space before the pandemic and would take up an even bigger portion of it in 2021
https://www.startribune.com/vikings-migh...fresh=true
Changes at the quarterback position created something of an inflection point with how the Vikings spend their money. They've often spent right up to the cap — a function of an ownership group that's spared little expense in pursuit of on-field success — but the larger cash spend (which began, as we mentioned above, in 2017) came right as the team's quarterback costs started to increase.
An effective QB on a rookie contract is one of the NFL's greatest cost efficiencies, given how expensive it is to acquire even an average quarterback on the open market. When the Vikings traded up to acquire Teddy Bridgewater with the last pick of the 2014 first round, they thought they'd have five years of cost-controlled quarterbacking, thanks to the fifth-year option they received as a result of taking Bridgewater in the first round. But when his left knee buckled on Aug. 30, 2016, it ended the Vikings' days of low quarterback costs several years early.
They traded for Sam Bradford four days later, adding $7 million of cap charges in 2016 and $18 million in 2017 to a team that was already starting to reward some of Spielman's more successful draft picks with second contracts. When the Vikings decided after the 2017 season they couldn't plan around long-term health with Bradford or Bridgewater (or around long-term consistency with Case Keenum), they spent big to add Cousins to a team that had reached the NFC title game two months earlier and was in win-now mode.
Cousins' shrewdly-designed contract sacrificed long-term security for short-term guarantees; the quarterback and agent Mike McCartney leveraged those guarantees on the way to another deal before last season that gave the Vikings $10 million of cap relief in exchange for a $30 million signing bonus.
Cousins' deal is fully guaranteed for 2021, and his 2022 salary ($35 million) would become guaranteed if he's on the roster by the third day of the 2021 league year. In effect, if he's still with the Vikings in March, he'll have locked in $150 million over six years in Minnesota, all of it fully guaranteed, while setting up a $45 million cap number for 2022 that could prompt talks on another extension.
Signing players like Cousins, Stefon Diggs and Dalvin Cook to competitive deals, though, has meant bigger bonuses that don't hit the cap all at once. That's why the Vikings' cap challenges in recent years — and the hurdles they'll face this year — aren't just related to their quarterback.
They gave Diggs a $15 million signing bonus as part of his five-year extension in 2018, and absorbed $9 million of dead money this year after trading him to Buffalo. The deals Xavier Rhodes and Linval Joseph signed before the 2017 season carried a combined $7.2 million of dead money this year, and releasing a player like tight end Kyle Rudolph this year would mean $4.35 million of dead money on the Vikings' 2021 cap.
Such a move would also mean a $5.1 million savings, since the Vikings wouldn't be paying Rudolph the rest of his salary for next year, but too much dead money would require them to fill out their roster with cheaper players. They carried more than $35 million of dead money on their 2020 books, before putting another $21.7 million worth of talent on injured reserve when Danielle Hunter and Anthony Barr were done for the season before the end of September.
The Vikings have been forced to fill essential positions like quarterback and left tackle on the open market, while paying key defenders and trying to retain a few luxuries (like Cook, who's playing with a $15.5 million signing bonus) that other teams might not attempt to keep. Unless they're able to restructure several contracts, or the league decides to keep the 2021 cap higher than expected, the Vikings will have to release some veterans by March while trying to improve a 7-9 team with little cap space.
They'll face a decision on Barr, whose release would carry $7.8 million of dead money but bring $7.062 million of cap savings. He's returning from a torn pectoral muscle, but the Vikings have tended to value him differently than other teams, both because of his role in their defense and the work he does before the snap, calling plays and getting defenders lined up. Keeping Barr, though, might mean parting with free agent Eric Wilson, and the Vikings might need to restructure his deal even if they do let Wilson go.
Hunter is returning from a torn pectoral muscle that interrupted his tantalizing trajectory (he'd become the fastest NFL player to 50 career sacks during his first four seasons). The deal he signed before the 2018 season has aged quickly, such that he's the 18th-highest paid edge rusher in the league, and there have been whispers this winter that Hunter's camp wasn't issuing an idle threat when it leaked to NFL Network in October he wanted to redo his deal; he could be using Joey Bosa's deal with the Chargers (worth an average of $27 million a year) as a benchmark. The Vikings likely couldn't get to that point without pushing some of Hunter's cap value into the future, and the defensive end isn't working from the best negotiating position after missing all of 2020, but a deal for Hunter could again test the Vikings' appetite for spending well over the cap.
They're not in as difficult a position as some of the teams they're chasing in the NFC. The Packers and Rams each have more than $200 million of cap liabilities on their 2021 books, and the Saints (who are at more than $290 million) would keep $22.65 million of dead money on their books even if Brees retires as expected. The fact that so many teams could face difficult cap constraints could create a list of attractive veterans forced to play at bargain rates in 2021; the Vikings might be able to take advantage of such a market to fill a spot or two.
The way they've built their roster, though, combines with an uncertain economic climate to put a damper on their years of almost uninterrupted building. They'll have a fresh set of financial hurdles to clear before free agency starts in less than two months.
Just depends on where the cap comes in. But $176 is a very pessimistic prediction.
Even still, it's not like the Vikings will have to sacrifice good young players in order to get under the cap. There's $12M just in Rudy and Shamar. Then there's Bailey's $2M. And if you need more you can look at restructures for Barr and Harry. And if you get really desperate, replacing Reiff with Cleveland at LT nets you another $12M.
I tend to think the Vikings would like to keep Reiff, but if that cap comes in lower than $185 or so, he probably has to go. But y'know what? Vikings drafted Cleveland for a reason.
There's also the nuclear option: There's $10M savings with zero dead in Harry's contract. I can't imagine we'd want to have to replace both of our starting safeties, but I agree with Zimmer's comment last year about too much money tied up in the safety position is wrong-headed roster construction.
Zimmer has made comments in the past that the safety position is not one of the more important positions in his defensive scheme.
I think Kris Boyd, Harrison Hand or even Jeff Gladney would make better NFL safeties than NFL corners.
If Patrick Surtain or Caleb Farley fell to the Vikings at pick 14, I think Zimmer might be interested... Zim could move a corner or two back to safety and be ok.
Rudy has already said he won't restructure, so I thinks he is out the door (and easily replaceable). I hate to say this, but I think Zimmer can also replace our safeties without much stress.
I think Zimmer would keep Rieff, Shamar and Barr over Rudy and Harry.
I think Rudy and Harry would save the Vikings almost 20M in cap space.
Quote: @"Carl Knowles" said:
Zimmer has made comments in the past that the safety position is not one of the more important positions in his defensive scheme.
I think Kris Boyd, Harrison Hand or even Jeff Gladney would make better NFL safeties than NFL corners.
If Patrick Surtain or Caleb Farley fell to the Vikings at pick 14, I think Zimmer might be interested... Zim could move a corner or two back to safety and be ok.
Rudy has already said he won't restructure, so I thinks he is out the door (and easily replaceable). I hate to say this, but I think Zimmer can also replace our safeties without much stress.
I think Zimmer would keep Rieff, Shamar and Barr over Rudy and Harry.
I think Rudy and Harry would save the Vikings almost 20M in cap space.
Smith does more for Zims defense than Barr and is more reliable. I think losing Smiths versatility would be evident very quickly. Athletically he is starting to fall off a bit, bit he is asked to do everything, especially last year.
This was all structured th same way other teams that are talented do it: make a window to get to the Super Bowl. Vikings took a swing when they signed Cousins, kept Barr, restructured contracts, moved hard cap money around, etc. Now its time to pay the piper. It is what it is but I think Minnesota won't have the dynamic drop off that many teams do that swing and miss.
Quote: @"StickyBun" said:
This was all structured th same way other teams that are talented do it: make a window to get to the Super Bowl. Vikings took a swing when they signed Cousins, kept Barr, restructured contracts, moved hard cap money around, etc. Now its time to pay the piper. It is what it is but I think Minnesota won't have the dynamic drop off that many teams do that swing and miss.
I agree that this is their window. They're extending it as long as they can, while they rebuild parts of the team. I would also argue that if they're able to retain some of the pivotal pieces (thinking in particular Barr, Harry) without hitting future books too hard, and hit on as many acquisitions this year as we did last year, then we're going to wake up one day and realize we've already rebuilt.
The best teams are able to do rolling rebuilds wherein they rebuild pieces at a time. And so never really tear it down to build it back up. I know some advocate for that. God knows why.
For example, Vikings rebuilt the corners last year. TEs are also done. The OL is 3/5 there. WR is on its way. We'll replace one of the safeties this year. I fully expect our two biggest acquisitions this spring (whether FA or the draft) to be a starting 3T and Edge rusher. With luck we can hit on those and then the DL is set for the next several years.
Now this doesn't mean all those players will be hits. Just that you've replaced an aging, expensive or ineffective player with a player you signed or drafted to be a starter.
Quote: @"MaroonBells" said:
@"StickyBun" said:
This was all structured th same way other teams that are talented do it: make a window to get to the Super Bowl. Vikings took a swing when they signed Cousins, kept Barr, restructured contracts, moved hard cap money around, etc. Now its time to pay the piper. It is what it is but I think Minnesota won't have the dynamic drop off that many teams do that swing and miss.
I agree that this is their window. They're extending it as long as they can, while they rebuild parts of the team. I would also argue that if they're able to retain some of the pivotal pieces (thinking in particular Barr, Harry) without hitting future books too hard, and hit on as many acquisitions this year as we did last year, then we're going to wake up one day and realize we've already rebuilt.
The best teams are able to do rolling rebuilds wherein they rebuild pieces at a time. And so never really tear it down to build it back up. I know some advocate for that. God knows why.
For example, Vikings rebuilt the corners last year. TEs are also done. The OL is 3/5 there. WR is on its way. We'll replace one of the safeties this year. I fully expect our two biggest acquisitions this spring (whether FA or the draft) to be a starting 3T and Edge rusher. With luck we can hit on those and then the DL is set for the next several years.
Now this doesn't mean all those players will be hits. Just that you've replaced an aging, expensive or ineffective player with a player you signed or drafted to be a starter.
This. Some of the best teams can even do it while never taking a step back. I think it all starts with the QB though. As long as you have that box checked it makes the rebuild that much easier. Where tanking starts to make sense is when you can't get a franchise QB. They don't grow on trees so draft and develop is the way to go. The unfortunate part is you likely need a top 3 pick for that.
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