Thorough Vikings v. Saints breakdown

[MaroonBells]

https://www.dailynorseman.com/2019/12/31/21043049/minnesota-vikings-vs-new-orleans-saints-match-up

Despite the Vikings being 8 point underdogs, Mike Zimmer has always played Sean Payton tough, winning two of the last three games - although those were all at home. In terms of statistics that reflect coaching, the Saints and Vikings both rank pretty high. The Saints have the highest overall team PFF grade, coming in at 93.5, while the Vikings rank 5th overall (3rd in NFC), at 91.9.
....
Kirk Cousins has faced the Saints three times in the past, the first in 2015 resulted in a perfect 158.3 passer rating. But the more relevant games - in 2017 with the Redskins and last season with the Vikings, he also played well. In 2017 he had a 132.6 passer rating, and last season he had a 107.7 passer rating - near his 107.4 passer rating for the 2019 season.
Drew Brees, on the other hand, has been pretty well defensed in his last three outings against the Vikings, in 2017 and 2018. He was held to just a 93.1 passer rating over those three games, including an 84.8 passer rating and only 120 passing yards in the game last year, and an 89.0 passer rating in the Minneapolis Miracle game.
On the season, Drew Brees is #2 in passer rating (116.3) and Kirk Cousins is #4 (107.4). In terms of ANY/A, they’re both ranked high as well - Brees is 3rd at 8.33, and Cousins is 7th at 7.73. In terms of adjusted completion percentage, Brees is #1 at 82.9%, while Cousins is 3rd at 80.2% among QBs with at least 350 attempts. These are the top two quarterbacks in these key metrics in the NFC.

[Guest]

I didnt hesitate to bet the over this game...

Tough, 1st rd match-up, no doubt. 

[Guest]

This is going to be a very interesting matchup. It refers to this in the full article at the link, but as we all know, Zimmer tends to have the wrong game plan in place to start a game, but then adjusts very well once he sees what the offense is doing. The first Green Bay game was the perfect example of that.

But against the Saints, it's been the opposite. Playoff game in '17 is a good example. Vikings look like they're going to run away with it, then Payton figures us out and the Saints come back. Several of the Saints/Vikings match ups have followed that same pattern. 

So I guess it's fitting that in a game where Zimmer could very well be coaching for his job, the most important match up will be Payton vs. Zimmer. No pressure, Mike. 

[Guest]

Can Zimmer cause problems again for Brees? Always plays him pretty well. 

https://twitter.com/Luke_SpinmanNFL/stat...08640?s=20

[Guest]

Another aspect that the article doesn't go into detail about is the the Saints blitz about a third of the time. That's 9th in the League. By contrast, Minnesota blitzes about 25% of the time.

Cousins is great against the blitz. Brees is even better. But one team clearly relies on it most than the other. 

If New Orleans brings pressure from the same side that Stefanski has a screen or TE fake chip and release play called it's going to net some big gains. If Minnesota picks up the blitz either Diggs or Thielen will be singled up for big gains.

Payton is a naturally more aggressive Coach than Zimmer. And his DC has less talent to work with and needs the blitzes to help cover that up. I know there's a legit aspect to Breaking Tendencies in the Playoffs. But I have a hard time seeing the Saints backing off the blitzing.

This might be the reason Stefanski and Kubiak are excited by the matchup. Minnesota has struggled all year with natural pressure up the middle and speed off the left edge. New Orleans simply doesn't have that and will need to bring an extra player to manufacture it. Which you scheme for and take advantage of. The only issue will be of O'Neill can't handle Jordan or another D-Linemen gets consistent, unexpected pressure. 

[Guest]

Cousins and our offense was so bad in the GB game that it is easy to forget the level they were playing at before that.  Prior to that game, I would have put our offense up against any offense in the league, we have so many weapons, two of the best WRs in the game, 3 good TEs and two excellent RBs and Cousins was playing like we had expected him to doing a great job of distributing the ball to all our playmakers.  If we can get back to that kind of offense, I do believe that we are capable of outscoring them.  I am not as worried about the defense, because for me it all comes down to Kirk, if we get the good Kirk, I think we go over 30 points and beat them.  

[Guest]

As a Denver resident, I have a whole bunch of faith in Kubiak. If Kubiak is giddy about a game plan, I would think that he sees something we can expose. 
Fingers crossed...

[Guest]

As Mike Tyson said, 'Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth'. Having a good gameplan is one thing, executing it is completely another. I think the brain trust in Minnesota is more than equipped to put together a great plan, I just don't trust their ability to execute it under the bright lights of playoff football on the road.

[Guest]

@Clanzomaelan said:
As a Denver resident, I have a whole bunch of faith in Kubiak. If Kubiak is giddy about a game plan, I would think that he sees something we can expose. 
Fingers crossed...

I'm not sure if this is what was meant by that, but I sure hope so. 

[Guest]

@MaroonBells said:

@Clanzomaelan said:
As a Denver resident, I have a whole bunch of faith in Kubiak. If Kubiak is giddy about a game plan, I would think that he sees something we can expose. 
Fingers crossed...

I'm not sure if this is what was meant by that, but I sure hope so. 

Good point. I read it through purple tinted glasses...