Quote: @FSUVike said:
But all that movement just to land a possible reach that wasn't on any of our radars? Every single freaking one of us had a player we would have jumped up and down to get that was available with their original 3rd. Most of those players were available after the first trade down. A few were still on the board during the final two trades.
...
Bradbury, Irv Smith, Samia, Watts, Udoh..all good value picks. Trading down 4 damn times for Mattison is not good value. This Draft is a B for me.
This was why I complained about the Mattison pick. I was crossing my fingers WR Hakeem Butler would even drop to 81. For him to still be available after all 4 tradedowns was a gift horse that Spielman looked right in the mouth and said, nah, I'll take the backup RB over the 6'4 3rd WR we've needed for years.
The 5th round LB I think was an "oh, crap, who's next?" pick after the Jets took Cashman. That Spielman traded down for a 7th (even if only 3 spots) practically the moment Cashman was taken IMHO was not a coincidence.
Trade downs are a big part of the frustration - anyone watching them happen was likely to be ticked unless, at the end, Spielman pulled out a "gem" - and likely no player would have been universally agreed. Like RS Express, I wanted Hakeem Butler, but I think a lot of people would have screamed, "We already have 2 great WRs!!"
But I think there is another factor no one has explicitly mentioned yet: many, many Vikings fans hold this ASSUMPTION that Dalvin Cook is a proven star NFL RB. It seems like people saw the first game of his rookie season and said, "Ah, we've replaced Adrian Peterson, no need to worry about RB again for a decade!!" I read comments to the effect that we have star talent at WR and RB, and it really surprises me because Cook has done little more than flash in 2 years. He never even had 20 carries in a game last season, and only 1 hundred-yard game. Hell, if he was a CB or DT, Zimmer would be talking about how he hasn't progressed as quickly as projected or that he can't contribute from the training room, and all the Zimmer-ites would be nodding in agreement and saying RB is a key need where we might need to spend a first round pick.
Quote: @FSUVike said:
So here's my take. This Draft didn't have 32 players with a 1st Round Grade. More like 14-16. Luckily, several teams reached and Minnesota landed one of those true 1st Round Grade kids at #18.
What made this Draft interesting was just how many players had a 2nd Round Grade. You could get a legitimate 2nd Round Talent deep into the 3rd Round.
Smith at #50 was great because he had a high 2nd Round Grade on him and could have gone in the late 1st.
But the chance to grab another steal was traded away...more than once. And the result was to get a kid that at best went where he was rated and at worst was a reach value-wise.
Spielman righted the ship after that with several value picks in Samia, Watts, Udo and both WRs. The LB from USC that makes Rey Maualuga look fast is a headscratcher. Epps and Boyd have some intriguing qualities.
But to leave all that value just sitting there in the 3rd is not something I can defend.
Drafting human beings is an inexact science to say the least. But I bet we all agree that a Team that consistently reaches vs. the consensus grade ala the Raiders will almost always fail to win consistently.
So the consensus grade clearly has relevancy. Rick traded down from where he could have nabbed any number of players with a 2nd Round Grade. And then he did it again. And again. And again.
But all that movement just to land a possible reach that wasn't on any of our radars? Every single freaking one of us had a player we would have jumped up and down to get that was available with their original 3rd. Most of those players were available after the first trade down. A few were still on the board during the final two trades.
It's maddening. Oli Udoh may very well become a better OT than Chuma Edoga. But the percent chance Edoga becomes a quality Starter is significantly higher and he was just sitting there.
You can name at least one player at almost any position of need (and in some cases two or three) sitting there during the first few trade downs. And they were all passed over so Rick could get 5th Round Grade players in the 6th and 6th Round Grade Players in the 7th.
Spielman did this a few years ago and missed out on a ton of O-Line talent and ended up with Danny Isadora instead. And that cost the team. I think he left Day 1 Starters on the table again this year in the 3rd and simply can't give him an A for that.
Bradbury, Irv Smith, Samia, Watts, Udoh..all good value picks. Trading down 4 damn times for Mattison is not good value. This Draft is a B for me.
I agree with most but got a chuckle out of this line ...
Drafting human beings
... I was hoping they would be drafting all human beings and never really thought about it otherwise. 
I do wish they would have taken Hakeem Butler.
I still don't understand the frustration with the third round. I think the player that most wanted after the trade downs was Hakeem Butler, we obviously valued Mattison higher, and honestly Mattison has a much higher chance of A. being an elite player in this system B. having opportunity to be an elite player in this system.
I think Mattison was the pick in the 3rd round from the start, they just wanted to find the correct landing spot to get him. To me the draft ended almost exactly as the Vikings wanted other than the linebacker pick in the 5th round, they obviously wanted someone else. Otherwise, I think they had the draft that they wanted walking into the draft, maybe even slightly better, and for that I call it a win. I am fairly confident at least one of the players from the 5th to 7th and even UDFA's will hit and be a major contributor down the road, and I honestly think 2 will at minimum. There is a lot more talent in this group of players than you can typically draft in the 7th round. The vikings obviously thought some value would be there since they traded down as much as they did. We obviously we know for several years the ultimate outcome, I am sure we will get a glimpse and an idea during the summer and who can make it on the roster or practice squad.
The value was in the 3rd Round where you could get a near-universally graded 2nd Round Talent. Someone with a much higher percentage chance to become a Starter.
A Starter. Not a part-time player, which is exactly what Mattison is supposed to be.
Players that Rick passed on will become Starters either this season or next. Cost-controlled Starters, which you would think Minnesota would have interest in considering the cap situation.
I very specifically pointed out that I liked every pick after Mattison (minus Smith) as they were good values. But even Samia, a 3rd Round Talent, has less of a % chance of becoming a Starter than all the guys Spielman passed on.
You have to make a lot more late-round selections to hit on a Diggs or Weatherly as the conversion percentage in those rounds is far lower. Why he thinks that is a better strategy than taking a player sitting right under his nose with a much better statistical chance to pan out I will never know.
But it's exactly how you end up with the Danny Isadora's of the world instead of a Starter. He did it in that Draft and again in this one. And that's why the depth sucks.
What's the succession plan for Harry? What if they can't re-sign Harris? Who is ready to step in if something happens to Barr or Kendricks? Why wait until the 7th to find some #3 WR competition?
Can't keep punting out of high-value positions year after year to grab a bunch of late round lottery tickets without paying the piper sooner or later.
Quote: @FSUVike said:
The value was in the 3rd Round where you could get a near-universally graded 2nd Round Talent. Someone with a much higher percentage chance to become a Starter.
A Starter. Not a part-time player, which is exactly what Mattison is supposed to be.
Players that Rick passed on will become Starters either this season or next. Cost-controlled Starters, which you would think Minnesota would have interest in considering the cap situation.
I very specifically pointed out that I liked every pick after Mattison (minus Smith) as they were good values. But even Samia, a 3rd Round Talent, has less of a % chance of becoming a Starter than all the guys Spielman passed on.
You have to make a lot more late-round selections to hit on a Diggs or Weatherly as the conversion percentage in those rounds is far lower. Why he thinks that is a better strategy than taking a player sitting right under his nose with a much better statistical chance to pan out I will never know.
But it's exactly how you end up with the Danny Isadora's of the world instead of a Starter. He did it in that Draft and again in this one. And that's why the depth sucks.
What's the succession plan for Harry? What if they can't re-sign Harris? Who is ready to step in if something happens to Barr or Kendricks? Why wait until the 7th to find some #3 WR competition?
Can't keep punting out of high-value positions year after year to grab a bunch of late round lottery tickets without paying the piper sooner or later.
Who are all these universally graded 2nd round players we passed on between 81 and 102? I'd be surprised if even a handful of the guys drafted between 81 and 102 develop into starters this year or next... to say Rick passed on players who will become starters is kind of laughable. We have no idea if any of these guys will become good players or not. Mattison could turn out to be the best player taken in the 3rd round for all we know.
Don't believe me... look back at the 2015 draft... we had Robison and Griffen in their primes and Rick traded back not once, but TWICE... to take a "raw" DE named Danielle Hunter who many media members and fans thought wouldn't get many snaps as a rookie... well guess what... he actually played quite a few snaps his rookie year and was a big part of why our pass rush was so good. Hunter and David Johnson are the only players who turned into good starters in the entire 3rd round as well...
I'm not trying to rag on you, FSU... I actually enjoy reading what you post. It's usually well thought out (even if I don't always agree with it). Cheers bud!
It's all about percentages, Wetlander.
I joked about drafting robots earlier, which MSP got a kick out of...but there was a point to it. If every player had an iron-clad, guarantee grade out of 100 how could you ever F up by taking the highest rated player at a position of need?
Offensive Tackle Z is still on the board with a rating of 82.5. Minnesota needs a future OT and no other Robot at a Position of Need is graded higher than 78. So the Vikings select Z out of Amazon Robotics Manufacturing Center Alpha.
If it were an exact science it would be boring as hell. So would Recruiting, which I get paid handsomely to do.
But there are metrics in place to help me recruit the best people. Job history, testing, answers to behavioral based interview questions etc.
And there is game film, combine results and a shit ton of scouting that provides the metrics of how to evaluate players.
That's how predicting future success works. There are no guarantees because of the Human Factor. But if these metrics had no merit either in recruiting in the business world or drafting players, then they wouldn't be used.
Passing on guys with metrics that say they could be 2nd Round Talents in the 3rd Round so you can load up on much lower round guys, whom subsequently have much lower chances of success statistically, is OK if you're aces at developing your own metrics that prove superior to the common norm.
But Rick's numbers in the late rounds have provided plenty of evidence that his metrics are faulty. Others who are far more critical of Spielman have published the numbers. He gets more late round picks than anyone else and doesn't convert enough to justify it.
Let me say it again. He trades like F'ing crazy to get more late round picks than anyone else. And gets very little for the effort. And certainly not enough to justify trading out of spots to pick players with much higher chances of success.
Again, it's a human thing. Just on the Vikings roster alone you have Thielen and Diggs. Every team has great players that the metrics of assessment completely whiffed on. But they are the exception, not the rule.
I believe Rick Spielman is good to really good at picking in the first 3 Rounds. There are plenty of players who are performing to back that up. So why trade back to get more and more and more late round picks without any correlation to continuing that success?
I'd love to ask him. Off the record and off the books. I am a successful Recruiter for one of the biggest name companies on the planet. Rick, if you're reading this, please reach out to me and help me understand the method to your madness!
Quote: @FSUVike said:
I'd love to ask him. Off the record and off the books. I am a successful Recruiter for one of the biggest name companies on the planet. Rick, if you're reading this, please reach out to me and help me understand the method to your madness!
Do you recruit for the tech industry? Software engineering and such? Nationwide or just KC?
Quote: @StickyBun said:
@ FSUVike said:
I'd love to ask him. Off the record and off the books. I am a successful Recruiter for one of the biggest name companies on the planet. Rick, if you're reading this, please reach out to me and help me understand the method to your madness!
Do you recruit for the tech industry? Software engineering and such? Nationwide or just KC?
Just Automated Equipment Maintenence Technicians, Sticky. For You Know Who.
Quote: @FSUVike said:
It's all about percentages, Wetlander.
I joked about drafting robots earlier, which MSP got a kick out of...but there was a point to it. If every player had an iron-clad, guarantee grade out of 100 how could you ever F up by taking the highest rated player at a position of need?
Offensive Tackle Z is still on the board with a rating of 82.5. Minnesota needs a future OT and no other Robot at a Position of Need is graded higher than 78. So the Vikings select Z out of Amazon Robotics Manufacturing Center Alpha.
If it were an exact science it would be boring as hell. So would Recruiting, which I get paid handsomely to do.
But there are metrics in place to help me recruit the best people. Job history, testing, answers to behavioral based interview questions etc.
And there is game film, combine results and a shit ton of scouting that provides the metrics of how to evaluate players.
That's how predicting future success works. There are no guarantees because of the Human Factor. But if these metrics had no merit either in recruiting in the business world or drafting players, then they wouldn't be used.
Passing on guys with metrics that say they could be 2nd Round Talents in the 3rd Round so you can load up on much lower round guys, whom subsequently have much lower chances of success statistically, is OK if you're aces at developing your own metrics that prove superior to the common norm.
But Rick's numbers in the late rounds have provided plenty of evidence that his metrics are faulty. Others who are far more critical of Spielman have published the numbers. He gets more late round picks than anyone else and doesn't convert enough to justify it.
Let me say it again. He trades like F'ing crazy to get more late round picks than anyone else. And gets very little for the effort. And certainly not enough to justify trading out of spots to pick players with much higher chances of success.
Again, it's a human thing. Just on the Vikings roster alone you have Thielen and Diggs. Every team has great players that the metrics of assessment completely whiffed on. But they are the exception, not the rule.
I believe Rick Spielman is good to really good at picking in the first 3 Rounds. There are plenty of players who are performing to back that up. So why trade back to get more and more and more late round picks without any correlation to continuing that success?
I'd love to ask him. Off the record and off the books. I am a successful Recruiter for one of the biggest name companies on the planet. Rick, if you're reading this, please reach out to me and help me understand the method to your madness!
Again... who are these guys that are "2nd round" talents that we passed on in the 3rd? Are these projections you're taking from draft analysts in the media? If so, their opinions can vary widely from NFL front offices. There were some guys I liked that went between 81 and 102, but nobody I felt strongly about. Who would you have taken instead?
Also, if it's all about percentages... is there a significantly higher chance to get a starter in the 3rd round than say the 4th, 5th, or 6th? You keep arguing that, but I'd be curious to hear you explain this more with actual percentages... from what I can glean, most starters come from the 1st and 2nd round. The first round has about a 50-60% hit rate in any given year and the 2nd round is generally around 50%. After the 2nd round, the hit rate on finding starters drops like a rock.
It's not like we traded out of the 3rd round completely for a bunch of 5-7th round picks. We moved back 20 spots through 3 different trades and still took a good RB prospect with the last pick in the 3rd round. That extra draft capital allowed us to move up earlier in the 4th to get Samia. If we had stayed at 81, maybe we don't have enough ammunition to move up for Samia in the 4th?
I guess I'm trying to understand your logic here. What you're arguing sounds good in theory, but I don't think it's actually true by any objective analysis. Maybe I'm wrong...
|
