Last year I was pounding the table (keyboard) for James Daniels out of Iowa who was a scheme fit as well as having a 30 inch vertical and a 7.29 3-cone, and the Vikings passed on him too. He went to the Bears at #39 and started at guard their last 10 games.
So far the evidence indicates Spielman thinks you can find a guard in a WalMart checkout line so it wouldn't surprise me at all if he once again refuses to spend a 1st on one.
The question is: will there be an OL coveted by a team enough to trade up at #17 in front of the Vikings? Last time the Vikings were in an obvious and glaring need situation in the draft is when they reached and grabbed the bust known as Treadwell because teams grabbed WRers on a run as the 2 or 3 picks immediately before them were WR.
I could see the same scenario happening and Spielman shitting himself and reaching.
Quote: @"BarrNone55" said:
Well, he was one of our top 30 visits...and at the Combine...So...
It's possible that the Vikings don't have a disqualifying metric. It's also possible that Kubiak and Dennison have different standards. And one other thing that I should've realized before--regardless of 3-cone time, Cody Ford played in an outside zone scheme at OU, while Hernandez played in a gap scheme at UTEP. Big difference right there. And I'm not seeing anything that indicates they met with Hernandez at all.
In either case, this is good news because I love Cody Ford.
Treadwell wasn't a reach. He was widely projected to go about where we picked. Furthermore, last year we didn't reach and theres a reasonable chance it cost us a chance to make the playoffs as if we had a decent guard at all, it could have been the difference. So even if you assume they reached there's mixed signals going on.
Quote: @medaille said:
Treadwell wasn't a reach. He was widely projected to go about where we picked. Furthermore, last year we didn't reach and theres a reasonable chance it cost us a chance to make the playoffs as if we had a decent guard at all, it could have been the difference. So even if you assume they reached there's mixed signals going on.
Coming off a major injury and ran a 4.65 40. He was a reach, would love to have seen how far he would have dropped if Rick didn't get the yips and grab him. He can't get open.
Quote: @StickyBun said:
@ medaille said:
Treadwell wasn't a reach. He was widely projected to go about where we picked. Furthermore, last year we didn't reach and theres a reasonable chance it cost us a chance to make the playoffs as if we had a decent guard at all, it could have been the difference. So even if you assume they reached there's mixed signals going on.
Coming off a major injury and ran a 4.65 40. He was a reach, would love to have seen how far he would have dropped if Rick didn't get the yips and grab him. He can't get open.
Treadwell was overrated and there was multi-page thread that year where one or two of us were trying to convince a hundred others to see that.
He was not, however, a reach. Pull up any big board from 2016 and he consistently ranked in the top 25. Vikings took him at #23. Matt Miller had him #23, Mayock had him #22, USA Today had him #11, SI had him #8.
Quote: @MaroonBells said:
@ StickyBun said:
@ medaille said:
Treadwell wasn't a reach. He was widely projected to go about where we picked. Furthermore, last year we didn't reach and theres a reasonable chance it cost us a chance to make the playoffs as if we had a decent guard at all, it could have been the difference. So even if you assume they reached there's mixed signals going on.
Coming off a major injury and ran a 4.65 40. He was a reach, would love to have seen how far he would have dropped if Rick didn't get the yips and grab him. He can't get open.
Treadwell was overrated and there was multi-page thread that year where one or two of us were trying to convince a hundred others to see that.
He was not, however, a reach. Pull up any big board from 2016 and he consistently ranked in the top 25. Vikings took him at #23. Matt Miller had him #23, Mayock had him #22, USA Today had him #11, SI had him #8.
But that doesn't mean he wasn't lower graded by NFL GMs. I really don't look at the 'media experts' as aligning with NFL GMs. You see it every year when a guy goes much higher in round 1 than the media guys select. Not a perfect science for sure for anyone, including scouting departments and GMs.
Quote: @SkolVikings44 said:
I know he can be tough to read, but in my opinion the an area Arif Hasan hits home runs in is his thoughts on the Vikings threshold for drafting positions. He has done a couple this year already, including the o-line. It has all the info we are interested in. I have a subscription, but unfortunately he writes this on the Athletic. I dont think I will have time tonite, but Ill try to post some of the o-line stats that he thinks the Vikings look at. One thing Geoff mentioned that I know Arif discusses is the flying 30.
Arif has been doing this kind of work for years. He really gets in depth in most of the pieces he writes. He did a long story (or stories) years ago about what the Vikings look for in each position when they draft. It was based on how they drafted and I believe on who visited as well.
This is from 2018 ...
https://zonecoverage.com/2018/vikings/crunching-the-numbers-the-analytics-behind-the-colby-gossett-pick/
As an athlete, Gossett is outside the Vikings’ traditional mold by a
small amount; they historically target guards with quick three cones and
short shuttles as well as a good broad jump.
This is from 2015 ...
https://vikingsterritory.com/2015/analysis/2015-minnesota-vikings-a-step-towards-analytics
The Vikings have strong tendencies that I feel are driven by this notion
of information gathering and study. They’ve drafted younger players,
and have not drafted a player 23 or older in the past three years, a
popular trend among NFL data analysts (at least according to
Pro-Football-Reference). They seem to maintain round values for
positions, like late-round guards, mid-round receivers and an abhorrence
of the second round for any position.
Pretty spot on with the guard observation.
The one scary thing about all of this is that their preferences have not produced very good results.
Since 2012, here is the year, round picked, & player ...
2012, 1, Matt Kalil2013, 6, Jeff Baca2013, 7, Travis Bond2014, 5, David Yankey2015, 4, TJ Clemmings2015, 6, Tyrus Thompson2015, 6, Austin Shepherd2016, 4, Willie Beavers2017, 3, Pat Elflein2017, 5, Danny Isidora2018, 2, Brian O'Neill2018, 6, Colby Gossett
... that is 12 picks since Spielman took over as GM.
Kalil was a good choice who just got hurt too much.Elflein is incomplete and based on last year, trending down.Isidora is still developing and may never become a starter.O'Neill has a good chance to be a hit based on one year.Gossett they allowed to be snatched from the PS.
I would have to seriously review what the preferences are and overhaul those completely.
Quote: @StickyBun said:
@ MaroonBells said:
@ StickyBun said:
@ medaille said:
Treadwell wasn't a reach. He was widely projected to go about where we picked. Furthermore, last year we didn't reach and theres a reasonable chance it cost us a chance to make the playoffs as if we had a decent guard at all, it could have been the difference. So even if you assume they reached there's mixed signals going on.
Coming off a major injury and ran a 4.65 40. He was a reach, would love to have seen how far he would have dropped if Rick didn't get the yips and grab him. He can't get open.
Treadwell was overrated and there was multi-page thread that year where one or two of us were trying to convince a hundred others to see that.
He was not, however, a reach. Pull up any big board from 2016 and he consistently ranked in the top 25. Vikings took him at #23. Matt Miller had him #23, Mayock had him #22, USA Today had him #11, SI had him #8.
But that doesn't mean he wasn't lower graded by NFL GMs. I really don't look at the 'media experts' as aligning with NFL GMs. You see it every year when a guy goes much higher in round 1 than the media guys select. Not a perfect science for sure for anyone, including scouting departments and GMs.
Well, we’ll never know the consensus of how GMs feel about
specific players other than if they drop super far, we can know no one graded
them notably higher. You could just as
well state that every GM after us regretted us taking Treadwell when we did
because they were hoping he would fall to them.
It’s equally as valid, and no evidence will ever come out to support
either argument. You just can’t use him
being a bust, and you feeling he’s overrated as evidence that we reached. Sometimes you take a player right where they’re
supposed to go and they bust anyway. It’s
just the nature of the draft.
Quote: @MarkSP18 said:
@ SkolVikings44 said:
I know he can be tough to read, but in my opinion the an area Arif Hasan hits home runs in is his thoughts on the Vikings threshold for drafting positions. He has done a couple this year already, including the o-line. It has all the info we are interested in. I have a subscription, but unfortunately he writes this on the Athletic. I dont think I will have time tonite, but Ill try to post some of the o-line stats that he thinks the Vikings look at. One thing Geoff mentioned that I know Arif discusses is the flying 30.
Arif has been doing this kind of work for years. He really gets in depth in most of the pieces he writes. He did a long story (or stories) years ago about what the Vikings look for in each position when they draft. It was based on how they drafted and I believe on who visited as well.
This is from 2018 ...
https://zonecoverage.com/2018/vikings/crunching-the-numbers-the-analytics-behind-the-colby-gossett-pick/
As an athlete, Gossett is outside the Vikings’ traditional mold by a
small amount; they historically target guards with quick three cones and
short shuttles as well as a good broad jump.
This is from 2015 ...
https://vikingsterritory.com/2015/analysis/2015-minnesota-vikings-a-step-towards-analytics
The Vikings have strong tendencies that I feel are driven by this notion
of information gathering and study. They’ve drafted younger players,
and have not drafted a player 23 or older in the past three years, a
popular trend among NFL data analysts (at least according to
Pro-Football-Reference). They seem to maintain round values for
positions, like late-round guards, mid-round receivers and an abhorrence
of the second round for any position.
Pretty spot on with the guard observation.
The one scary thing about all of this is that their preferences have not produced very good results.
Since 2012, here is the year, round picked, & player ...
2012, 1, Matt Kalil2013, 6, Jeff Baca2013, 7, Travis Bond2014, 5, David Yankey2015, 4, TJ Clemmings2015, 6, Tyrus Thompson2015, 6, Austin Shepherd2016, 4, Willie Beavers2017, 3, Pat Elflein2017, 5, Danny Isidora2018, 2, Brian O'Neill2018, 6, Colby Gossett
... that is 12 picks since Spielman took over as GM.
Kalil was a good choice who just got hurt too much.Elflein is incomplete and based on last year, trending down.Isidora is still developing and may never become a starter.O'Neill has a good chance to be a hit based on one year.Gossett they allowed to be snatched from the PS.
I would have to seriously review what the preferences are and overhaul those completely.
great post. wanted to puke with that list. even worse Elf was TERRIBLE last year after solid rook season and as much as we like Oneill, he hasnt set the world on fire yet. i am hopeful Kubes gets us straightened out
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