02-24-2019, 05:54 PM
As we count down the days until the beginning of NFL free agency, the Minnesota Vikings will be assessing their biggest needs and deciding where they want to invest cap space. Offensive line will certainly be a focus for the Vikings after ranking 27th by Pro Football Focus metrics in pass protection. But adding a No.3 receiver behind Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs may be key to unlocking the passing offense.
In 2018, the Vikings’ passing game was nowhere near the NFL’s best. Kirk Cousins may have cleared 4,000 yards, but Minnesota ranked 22nd in Expected Points Added, right behind the San Francisco 49ers.
What EPA tells us is how a team performed versus situation. For example, say the Vikings had third-and-6 from the 50-yard line. A 20-yard pass would create above expected results, a six-yard pass might create expected results and a 6-yard loss would have below expected results. One reason for using EPA is that it gives us the clearest picture of the passing offense’s efficiency and ability to step up when needed most.
The Vikings’ results in this category match up pretty well with the eye test. We routinely saw them come up short in key spots.
How much exactly did that hurt the team’s scoring output? Pro-Football Reference’s EPA model credits the Vikings for plus-52.7 Expected Points Added. The top team was Kansas City at plus-266.7 and 12 teams were over 100 EPA. The takeaway here is simple: In order to compete with the best teams in the NFL in 2019, the Vikings’ passing game needs to take leaps, not steps, forward.
There is no question that improved pass protection will help. There is also likely a ceiling on how much better that protection can get just like there is a ceiling on the level of quarterback play that can be expected.
However, when Washington had DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Jamison Crowder, Josh Reed and Vernon Davis in 2016, they ranked fifth in passing EPA with Kirk Cousins.
https://www.skornorth.com/vikings-2/2019...s-offense/
In 2018, the Vikings’ passing game was nowhere near the NFL’s best. Kirk Cousins may have cleared 4,000 yards, but Minnesota ranked 22nd in Expected Points Added, right behind the San Francisco 49ers.
What EPA tells us is how a team performed versus situation. For example, say the Vikings had third-and-6 from the 50-yard line. A 20-yard pass would create above expected results, a six-yard pass might create expected results and a 6-yard loss would have below expected results. One reason for using EPA is that it gives us the clearest picture of the passing offense’s efficiency and ability to step up when needed most.
The Vikings’ results in this category match up pretty well with the eye test. We routinely saw them come up short in key spots.
How much exactly did that hurt the team’s scoring output? Pro-Football Reference’s EPA model credits the Vikings for plus-52.7 Expected Points Added. The top team was Kansas City at plus-266.7 and 12 teams were over 100 EPA. The takeaway here is simple: In order to compete with the best teams in the NFL in 2019, the Vikings’ passing game needs to take leaps, not steps, forward.
There is no question that improved pass protection will help. There is also likely a ceiling on how much better that protection can get just like there is a ceiling on the level of quarterback play that can be expected.
However, when Washington had DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Jamison Crowder, Josh Reed and Vernon Davis in 2016, they ranked fifth in passing EPA with Kirk Cousins.
https://www.skornorth.com/vikings-2/2019...s-offense/