03-11-2018, 03:07 PM
ESPN’s Mike Sando authored a piece with analytics guru Brian Burke took another angle: They looked at how many wins Cousins would add to every team that could be in the mix for his services.
Using QBR, they analyzed how many wins Cousins should have had in Washington with an average defense and how many expected wins he would have added to the last three seasons to every team.
Sando explains:
Of course, this doesn’t factor in weapons. In 2015 and 2016, the Vikings struggled greatly on the offensive line. In 2017, they had one of the best supporting casts in the NFL. In 2016, Cousins had an especially good supporting cast with Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson both ranking by PFF among the top 20 receivers in the NFL and Jordan Reed adding 66 catches at tight end.
This also tells us that the Vikings have been an anomaly by getting good QB performances out of multiple quarterbacks. If either Teddy Bridgewater or Sam Bradford’s health was a guarantee, it’s possible Cousins wouldn’t be part of the conversation. And if there weren’t worries about Keenum being a one-year wonder, he might also be getting a long-term contract.
http://www.1500espn.com/vikings-2/2018/0...t-vikings/
Using QBR, they analyzed how many wins Cousins should have had in Washington with an average defense and how many expected wins he would have added to the last three seasons to every team.
Sando explains:
Quote:Because QBR correlates with win rate, we simply convert Cousins’ 60.2 QBR to a percentage and multiply by 16 games — 60.2 percent of 16, in other words — to produce an expected annual victory total (9.6). This total assumes a typical supporting cast, including on defense and special teams. The Redskins were only 22nd in defensive efficiency and 24th in special-teams efficiency from 2015 to 2017. This explains why Washington won 24 games over the past three seasons, nearly six fewer than we would have expected from Cousins’ QBR alone.Below is the potential difference Cousins would have made if he was the Vikings’ starting quarterback over the last three seasons instead of Teddy Bridgewater/Sam Bradford/Case Keenum if defense and special teams had been average:
Of course, this doesn’t factor in weapons. In 2015 and 2016, the Vikings struggled greatly on the offensive line. In 2017, they had one of the best supporting casts in the NFL. In 2016, Cousins had an especially good supporting cast with Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson both ranking by PFF among the top 20 receivers in the NFL and Jordan Reed adding 66 catches at tight end.
This also tells us that the Vikings have been an anomaly by getting good QB performances out of multiple quarterbacks. If either Teddy Bridgewater or Sam Bradford’s health was a guarantee, it’s possible Cousins wouldn’t be part of the conversation. And if there weren’t worries about Keenum being a one-year wonder, he might also be getting a long-term contract.
http://www.1500espn.com/vikings-2/2018/0...t-vikings/