ESPN analytics study looks at Cousins’ potential impact on Vikings

[purplefaithful]

ESPN’s Mike Sando authored a piece with analytics guru Brian Burke took another angle: They looked at how many wins Cousins would add to every team that could be in the mix for his services.
Using QBR, they analyzed how many wins Cousins should have had in Washington with an average defense and how many expected wins he would have added to the last three seasons to every team.
Sando explains:

Because QBR correlates with win rate, we simply convert Cousins’ 60.2 QBR to a percentage and multiply by 16 games — 60.2 percent of 16, in other words — to produce an expected annual victory total (9.6). This total assumes a typical supporting cast, including on defense and special teams. The Redskins were only 22nd in defensive efficiency and 24th in special-teams efficiency from 2015 to 2017. This explains why Washington won 24 games over the past three seasons, nearly six fewer than we would have expected from Cousins’ QBR alone. 

Below is the potential difference Cousins would have made if he was the Vikings’ starting quarterback over the last three seasons instead of Teddy Bridgewater/Sam Bradford/Case Keenum if defense and special teams had been average:

Of course, this doesn’t factor in weapons. In 2015 and 2016, the Vikings struggled greatly on the offensive line. In 2017, they had one of the best supporting casts in the NFL. In 2016, Cousins had an especially good supporting cast with Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson both ranking by PFF among the top 20 receivers in the NFL and Jordan Reed adding 66 catches at tight end.
This also tells us that the Vikings have been an anomaly by getting good QB performances out of multiple quarterbacks. If either Teddy Bridgewater or Sam Bradford’s health was a guarantee, it’s possible Cousins wouldn’t be part of the conversation. And if there weren’t worries about Keenum being a one-year wonder, he might also be getting a long-term contract.
http://www.1500espn.com/vikings-2/2018/0...t-vikings/

[Guest]

If Bradford is healthy, its Bradford 100% unequivocally. Its not even a conversation. Cousins wouldn't be in the conversation. But that knee and its 'degenerative' state, just needs a twist here or a tweak there and he's out again for 15 games. Can't rely on that.

[Guest]

If the dog hadn’t stop to $hit he would have caught the rabbit. =)

[Guest]

So...the shittier the team...the greater impact he has.... Stunning.

are there REALLY people who get paid to do this?

file this report under "N" for "No shit"

[Guest]

@Vanguard83 said:
So...the shittier the team...the greater impact he has.... Stunning.

are there REALLY people who get paid to do this?

file this report under "N" for "No shit"

lol, exactly. You can thank the 24/7 sports news cycle for crap like this article.

[Guest]

Aren't we averaging 10-11 wins a season over the past 3?  I'm surprised they think just about any QB would add to that?  3/4s of a game seems like very little return for the payout. 

[Guest]

The worst potential byproduct of this chase of Cousins is the team is handcuffed to make offers to other FAs until they know if he's onboard or not. A few days could be the difference in some real help at other positions or missing out. 

[Guest]

@StickyBun said:
The worst potential byproduct of this chase of Cousins is the team is handcuffed to make offers to other FAs until they know if he's onboard or not. A few days could be the difference in some real help at other positions or missing out. 

If the Vikes miss on Cousins then I expect Keenum to already be in Denver and  Bradford in one of the three New York teams

Teddy/Sloter/draft pick?

[Guest]

@Poiple said:

@StickyBun said:
The worst potential byproduct of this chase of Cousins is the team is handcuffed to make offers to other FAs until they know if he's onboard or not. A few days could be the difference in some real help at other positions or missing out. 

If the Vikes miss on Cousins then I expect Keenum to already be in Denver and  Bradford in one of the three New York teams

Teddy/Sloter/draft pick?

So 13-3 to 3-13 and we get to pick a QB in next years draft?  I have roughly 0 confidence in Teddy's knee.  In fact I think its more likley Sam plays a whole season then Teddy makes it back at all.