No matter who wants to debate, go watch the game and all of the terrible play at QB case has played. Yes he has made a few plays here and there. However, he has missed a lot of open WRs running free and instead checked it down, thrown a bad ball to a WR so they had to dive when they could of had YAC, or whatever. Yes Case has played well for a backup or even better than half the QBs in the league at this point. But I don't trust him to take us into the playoffs. So I'd rather take Teddy - in this QB friendly system VS what we were doing 2 years ago for those of you trying to compare #s - who I trust and has already basically won a playoff game (thank you blair walsh). Get him ready now and see how high this team can go, because Case can only go as high as you have seen the last few weeks, but this team could win a championship if you get some consistency back there.
Going into the bye at 6-2 asking whether Keenum should continue or Teddy should return is a loaded question. With the assumption Teddy is 100% healthy and there is no additional injury risk I don't think it is all that tough of a decision to make.
Over the past 7 weeks (Keenum is the reason MN won in CHI) Keenum has a record of 5-2 and has easily exceeded the expectations that were set for him. A lot of credit also goes to Pat Shurmur who has challenged Keenum to run the offense as designed rather than trying to simplify things or setting plays aside. All-22 & stat wise, Case is out performing his career averages and the question becomes if that is sustainable? The answer in my opinion is no. Why? Teams are finally starting to scheme against Keenum's lack of arm strength. Basically, teams know that Case can't hit the cover-2 hole on the sideline or over the middle and can't hit cover-3 up the seam on a line. The Packers changed up their defensive game plan and targeted under throws or balls without enough velocity to these areas. Baltimore and Cleveland did the same with Cleveland placing an emphasis on creating deflections. Here are some splits that kind of show that:
Keenum games 1-4 (Pit/Tam/Det/Chi): 64% completion / 895 yards (224 per game) / 4 TD / 0 INT
Keenum games 5-7 (GB/Bal/Cle): 63% completion / 715 yards (238 per game) / 3 TD / 3 INT
Basically, Case has regressed to more of a 1:1 TD:INT ratio guy. That isn't to say that represents a poor performance, but Case is not winning games alone he just isn't losing them. Looking at yesterday's drive chart against the Browns, each scoring drive was a team effort or the result of the Browns shooting themselves in the foot. There is usually a strong throw by Keenum during each of the scoring drives, but the majority of yardage is a result of the screen game, an underrated running game, or RB's making people miss in space (mainly Jet). Again, yardage is yardage and points are point but Keenum is simply running the offense without many critical errors. The time errors are made the Vikings defense (the ultimate bailout) has held up their end of the bargain and held teams to 3 or less.
Playing safe with Keenum works, the team is 6-2. But as the season continues and the team hopefully approaches a playoff berth you need to legitimately look at Keenum's chances as winning a playoff game. I have my reservations thinking the offense could score enough points against a strong team who could successfully pin them deep and take away the screen game and or flats. The best teams force you to go 80+ yards down the field and the Vikings current offense is predicated on the defense holding the opponent and only asking the offense to go 40 yards to get into FG range.
After talking about Case you clearly need to figure out if the alternative is even a better option at this point. Teddy hasn't played in a game since August 2016. The good is that he's been around MN working with Shurmur and fully understands the offense. The second is that he's previously worked with both Diggs & Thielen (albeit a far less developed Thielen). I wouldn't get particularly held up route chemistry being a significant issue. Pocket presence also shouldn't be a huge issue barring Teddy having an inability to compartmentalize the injury preventing him to plant his front leg. Going back to Lousiville, TB has always navigated the pocket with intuition and has a natural feel for throwing lanes. Even a decrease in mobility shouldn't detriment him. The big question is how far he will regress as a thrower, there will without a doubt be regression. Assuming Teddy regresses back about a single year in his development one could project a rest of season stat line of
Bridgewater games 1-8 (Was/Stl/Det/Atl/Car/Cin/Gb/Chi): 64% completion / 1,796 yards (224 per game) / 9TD / 8 INT
Ironically a one season regressed Bridgewater (barring a mental breakdown previously mentioned) is a mirror image or Case Keenum. Teddy will also progress as the season continues which could allow him to exceed that stat line as well. Case has been exceeding his career averages to date. Ultimately, the decision has to be made on upside with an eye on the future of the organization.
Case Keenum is not he MN Viking franchise QB, Teddy may still be that guy. An expiring contract and wanting to see a player on the field shouldn't justify starting Teddy. But the opportunity to grow the offense into a more high caliber unit over the final 8 weeks should be. The offense has a higher ceiling with Teddy at the helm. But every decision has its risks. But at 6-2 a calculated risk would be to start Teddy week 10 in Washington. If there is a catastrophe Keenum is still available. If Teddy has his ups & downs and is deemed a liability there is still the outside change Bradford could return to provide a spark down the stretch.
Quote: @"Geoff Nichols" said:
Going into the bye at 6-2 asking whether Keenum should continue or Teddy should return is a loaded question. With the assumption Teddy is 100% healthy and there is no additional injury risk I don't think it is all that tough of a decision to make.
Over the past 7 weeks (Keenum is the reason MN won in CHI) Keenum has a record of 5-2 and has easily exceeded the expectations that were set for him. A lot of credit also goes to Pat Shurmur who has challenged Keenum to run the offense as designed rather than trying to simplify things or setting plays aside. All-22 & stat wise, Case is out performing his career averages and the question becomes if that is sustainable? The answer in my opinion is no. Why? Teams are finally starting to scheme against Keenum's lack of arm strength. Basically, teams know that Case can't hit the cover-2 hole on the sideline or over the middle and can't hit cover-3 up the seam on a line. The Packers changed up their defensive game plan and targeted under throws or balls without enough velocity to these areas. Baltimore and Cleveland did the same with Cleveland placing an emphasis on creating deflections. Here are some splits that kind of show that:
Keenum games 1-4 (Pit/Tam/Det/Chi): 64% completion / 895 yards (224 per game) / 4 TD / 0 INT
Keenum games 5-7 (GB/Bal/Cle): 63% completion / 715 yards (238 per game) / 3 TD / 3 INT
Basically, Case has regressed to more of a 1:1 TD:INT ratio guy. That isn't to say that represents a poor performance, but Case is not winning games alone he just isn't losing them. Looking at yesterday's drive chart against the Browns, each scoring drive was a team effort or the result of the Browns shooting themselves in the foot. There is usually a strong throw by Keenum during each of the scoring drives, but the majority of yardage is a result of the screen game, an underrated running game, or RB's making people miss in space (mainly Jet). Again, yardage is yardage and points are point but Keenum is simply running the offense without many critical errors. The time errors are made the Vikings defense (the ultimate bailout) has held up their end of the bargain and held teams to 3 or less.
Playing safe with Keenum works, the team is 6-2. But as the season continues and the team hopefully approaches a playoff berth you need to legitimately look at Keenum's chances as winning a playoff game. I have my reservations thinking the offense could score enough points against a strong team who could successfully pin them deep and take away the screen game and or flats. The best teams force you to go 80+ yards down the field and the Vikings current offense is predicated on the defense holding the opponent and only asking the offense to go 40 yards to get into FG range.
After talking about Case you clearly need to figure out if the alternative is even a better option at this point. Teddy hasn't played in a game since August 2016. The good is that he's been around MN working with Shurmur and fully understands the offense. The second is that he's previously worked with both Diggs & Thielen (albeit a far less developed Thielen). I wouldn't get particularly held up route chemistry being a significant issue. Pocket presence also shouldn't be a huge issue barring Teddy having an inability to compartmentalize the injury preventing him to plant his front leg. Going back to Lousiville, TB has always navigated the pocket with intuition and has a natural feel for throwing lanes. Even a decrease in mobility shouldn't detriment him. The big question is how far he will regress as a thrower, there will without a doubt be regression. Assuming Teddy regresses back about a single year in his development one could project a rest of season stat line of
Bridgewater games 1-8 (Was/Stl/Det/Atl/Car/Cin/Gb/Chi): 64% completion / 1,796 yards (224 per game) / 9TD / 8 INT
Ironically a one season regressed Bridgewater (barring a mental breakdown previously mentioned) is a mirror image or Case Keenum. Teddy will also progress as the season continues which could allow him to exceed that stat line as well. Case has been exceeding his career averages to date. Ultimately, the decision has to be made on upside with an eye on the future of the organization.
Case Keenum is not he MN Viking franchise QB, Teddy may still be that guy. An expiring contract and wanting to see a player on the field shouldn't justify starting Teddy. But the opportunity to grow the offense into a more high caliber unit over the final 8 weeks should be. The offense has a higher ceiling with Teddy at the helm. But every decision has its risks. But at 6-2 a calculated risk would be to start Teddy week 10 in Washington. If there is a catastrophe Keenum is still available. If Teddy has his ups & downs and is deemed a liability there is still the outside change Bradford could return to provide a spark down the stretch.
exactly. Case has exceeded his ceiling and the longer he plays the more he will revert to the mean. On lesser teams, that would lead to losses, with this team its wins but not in January. Teddy on the other hand, plays as 2015 Teddy, he can go 5-3 most likely, 4-4 down the stretch at worst with this team maintaining its play (OL, D, ST).
What I believe, and I’m most likely in the minority, is that we will get the 2016 Teddy we expected to see. A guy who is stronger, smarter, with a much improved OL. A guy with a game plan that suits his ability (unlike Norv’s 5-7 step drop max protect O). These two factors, OL and OC with a 2015 Teddy, to me is 5 wins at a minimum which is 11-5 at worst and a potential first round bye (this is key).
The kid is special, if anyone can have a magical comeback story, it is him. My money is on #5
Question for Geoff and others, how do you feel about Teddy’s game in the Shurmur offense vs Norv? While Norv’s experience and know how seemed like a right fit for a young QB, it didnt seem to suit Teddy’s actual abilities. Pat’s O seems to be a better fit for Teddy, but Im not savvy enough to explain why (other than multiple route runners, needed accuracy and timing). Anyone want to take a shot?
Very nice breakdown, Geoff.
Again, if we thought Teddy had the attributes of a possibly strong starting QB before, why would that change now with the best offensive line he'll have ever seen in his short career in Minnesota? I'm intrigued to see his upside now. I think the Vikings are also.
Quote: @Skodin said:
Question for Geoff and others, how do you feel about Teddy’s game in the Shurmur offense vs Norv? While Norv’s experience and know how seemed like a right fit for a young QB, it didnt seem to suit Teddy’s actual abilities. Pat’s O seems to be a better fit for Teddy, but Im not savvy enough to explain why (other than multiple route runners, needed accuracy and timing). Anyone want to take a shot?
Norv's offense is predicated on holding the ball and letting receivers work their way open down the field. Norv's offense isn't a quick strike attacker per say, but put a lot of stress on DB's and safeties. Teddy wasn't a perfect fit in the offense, but the offensive line became the bottleneck. Teddy does a great job keeping the play alive, but you can't expect great success holding the ball with a below average line.
Shurmur tries to attack defenses on every level. You have to watch out for screen plays and WR's sneaking underneath. As a DB you also need to watch out for posts and corners. Shurmur's offense is more of a chess game since you'll see him pick off DB's once and awhile to get a guy open. Run after catch is where he intends to get a significant amount of his yardage. In theory Teddy should be more successful in the offense being so accurate. But you ultimately will have to see him in the system before jumping to conclusions.
Case is a back-up... and a good one. It is a role he knows and understands. So I don't think we're going to "destroy" him by benching him and giving Teddy a shot. If Teddy can't get it done, Case has shown he can come in and play well. But he's not the future. Teddy might not be either- but, by playing him, at least we'll have a better idea about what to do with his contract (since he's due to get paid). I don't know that Teddy IS the future... but we've got to find out, right?
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