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10-26-2017, 12:05 PM

Quote: @twgerber said:
Scrutiny yes. Some calling him a bust during year 2 is premature and shows a lack of patience. WR's are a historically slow group to contribute. There are always exceptions.

No they aren't. Especially 1st round draft picks, which is the main crux of the criticism and that a few refuse to acknowledge. 1st round WR picks are quick to show you they are either good or busts, that's historically accurate.

10-26-2017, 12:11 PM

I'd like to see that proof. How many are deemed a bust after 1 year? 2 years? vs 4 years?

I have never seen a true analysis so hopefully you can provide.

10-26-2017, 12:21 PM

Quote: @twgerber said:
I'd like to see that proof. How many are deemed a bust after 1 year? 2 years? vs 4 years?

I have never seen a true analysis so hopefully you can provide.

LOL, dude. 4 years? Give me a break. Listen, how about this....I'll make a friendly non-money wager that Treadwell will not be on this team in 2019. That's a bust. Can we agree on that? I want the guy to succeed, but its pretty obvious, at least to me (I'll qualify it that way) that he won't. He'll get next year because he's a 1st round pick and GM's hate to bag on those mistakes. The Vikings have to get a #3 with more upside than Treadless.

10-26-2017, 12:24 PM

4 years because most WR's don't break out until year 3 is the general consensus. sure I'll take that bet. He will be on the team Sept 1 2019 (baring catastrophic injury).

10-26-2017, 02:09 PM

Quote: @StickyBun said:

@twgerber said:
Scrutiny yes. Some calling him a bust during year 2 is premature and shows a lack of patience. WR's are a historically slow group to contribute. There are always exceptions.
No they aren't. Especially 1st round draft picks, which is the main crux of the criticism and that a few refuse to acknowledge. 1st round WR picks are quick to show you they are either good or busts, that's historically accurate.

Yes they are. Those 1st rounders that contribute typically run limited routes, often using pure speed.

Treadwell was injured last year, making his contributions null. He has contributed some this year, flashing some skills that made him a 1st rounder.

10-26-2017, 02:13 PM

Wasn't there a detailed analysis earlier in this thread that went back like 4 years and looked at the production of 1st Round WRs and specifically those drafted in the 20s that revealed that there hasn't been a lot of early success?

Or was that another post?

10-26-2017, 02:21 PM

Don't remember LOL

10-26-2017, 02:23 PM

Quote: @FSUVike said:
Wasn't there a detailed analysis earlier in this thread that went back like 4 years and looked at the production of 1st Round WRs and specifically those drafted in the 20s that revealed that there hasn't been a lot of early success?

Or was that another post?

I believe you are right. I also think that some people are not going to look at anything that might make them change their position so its futile to try.

there are always a mixture of results at all positions, some surprises, some disappointments, but what I can never understand is how some fans can hold their expectations over a player based on his draft position. its not like they slot themselves. if they are lacking in some area its not on the player for not being great at that right away.

especially a player that is taken on potential and not current ability. ( Treadwell fits this mold IMO) these guys are kind of roll the dice guys. I wonder how many people that are writing Treadwell off already were pushing CPatt until the very end. At least we know Treadwell is working on being a better football player from day one... as a rookie CP was worried about becoming a fashion designer and didnt really focus on his game until after his second season. ( not to mention all those additional picks surrendered for CP)... ( devil emoji )

10-26-2017, 02:55 PM

I think that was another thread, but it was only going back 4 years and the poster found the rate was about 50% in round 1, bit lower in the 20s. I thought it was skewed by the freakish 2014 group of WRs (Watkins, Evans, Beckham, Cooks, Benjamin) but excellent. But his intent was to show that the odds of success in drafting a WR in the 1st are dicey. I think the question in this thread is, "Do WRs who produce very little in their first year often have later success?" You would have to dig back over a longer period, because all the guys from the last 4 years who have not produced yet might NEVER produce.

10-26-2017, 03:45 PM

Quote: @FSUVike said:
Wasn't there a detailed analysis earlier in this thread that went back like 4 years and looked at the production of 1st Round WRs and specifically those drafted in the 20s that revealed that there hasn't been a lot of early success?

Or was that another post?

I did that analysis on another thread. I will look and cut and paste.