The Athletic: What I heard about Minnesota's QBs

[medaille]

Failed to live up to the #1 pick? Against what standard? Cam Ward? Caleb Williams? Bryce Young? Murray was Rookie of the Year in 2019, voted to the Pro Bowl in 2020, then again in 2021. In 2022 he tore his ACL. At the time, despite Deandre Hopkins missing half the season, had 17 total TDs and 7 INTs. Missed half of 2023 due to same ACL. Despite missing 9 games and playing in a new offense under Petzing, he still had 13 TDs and 5 INTs. He played a full season in 2024 with 26 TDs and 11 INTs, including a game where he had a perfect passer rating in a 41-10 beating of the Rams. 

Is there a chance he gets hurt? Of course. Is there a chance it takes a while to connect scheme to QB and QB to scheme? Absolutely. But the Vikings haven't had a QB with this much talent in a long time. 

Wins are a team stat, not a QB stat. And Murray will be playing on a team with a better scheme, better weapons, a better offensive line, and a better defense than any other team he had while in Arizona. If it all blows up in our faces, well damn, there goes all those draft picks we gave up and all that money we paid him. 

Oh...wait...

You know what the standard is.  By any standard for a #1 overall pick, Kyler hasn’t lived up to them, unless your standard is like Kirk Cousins level or below.  Murray just got kicked off his team and they’d rather enter the QB lottery to try and find a new one rather than keep going with him.

We don’t need to pretend all his lack of winning is everyone else’s fault and that he’s on the level with QBs that elevate the players around him and carry teams to the playoffs.  He is not.  Hopefully, he doesn’t have to be a team carrier here, because we surround him with adequate talent.

[MaroonBells]

You know what the standard is.  By any standard for a #1 overall pick, Kyler hasn’t lived up to them, unless your standard is like Kirk Cousins level or below.  Murray just got kicked off his team and they’d rather enter the QB lottery to try and find a new one rather than keep going with him.

We don’t need to pretend all his lack of winning is everyone else’s fault and that he’s on the level with QBs that elevate the players around him and carry teams to the playoffs.  He is not.  Hopefully, he doesn’t have to be a team carrier here, because we surround him with adequate talent.

You tell me what the standard is. Is your standard based on some vague, ethereal notion of what a #1 pick should be? Or is it based on what a #1 overall pick actually is based on historical precedence? 

Here's a list. You decide where Kyler Murray fits in...

1999: Tim Couch (Kentucky) — Cleveland Browns
2001: Michael Vick (Virginia Tech) — Atlanta Falcons
2002: David Carr (Fresno State) — Houston Texans
2003: Carson Palmer (USC) — Cincinnati Bengals
2004: Eli Manning (Ole Miss) — San Diego Chargers (traded to New York Giants)
2005: Alex Smith (Utah) — San Francisco 49ers
2007: JaMarcus Russell (LSU) — Oakland Raiders
2009: Matthew Stafford (Georgia) — Detroit Lions
2010: Sam Bradford (Oklahoma) — St. Louis Rams
2011: Cam Newton (Auburn) — Carolina Panthers
2012: Andrew Luck (Stanford) — Indianapolis Colts
2015: Jameis Winston (Florida State) — Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2016: Jared Goff (California) — Los Angeles Rams
2018: Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma) — Cleveland Browns
2019: Kyler Murray (Oklahoma) — Arizona Cardinals
2020: Joe Burrow (LSU) — Cincinnati Bengals
2021: Trevor Lawrence (Clemson) — Jacksonville Jaguars
2023: Bryce Young (Alabama) — Carolina Panthers
2024: Caleb Williams (USC) — Chicago Bears
2025: Cam Ward (Miami) — Tennessee Titans

[purplefaithful]

You tell me what the standard is. Is your standard based on some vague, ethereal notion of what a #1 pick should be? Or is it based on what a #1 overall pick actually is based on historical precedence? 

Here's a list. You decide where Kyler Murray fits in...

1999: Tim Couch (Kentucky) — Cleveland Browns
2001: Michael Vick (Virginia Tech) — Atlanta Falcons
2002: David Carr (Fresno State) — Houston Texans
2003: Carson Palmer (USC) — Cincinnati Bengals
2004: Eli Manning (Ole Miss) — San Diego Chargers (traded to New York Giants)
2005: Alex Smith (Utah) — San Francisco 49ers
2007: JaMarcus Russell (LSU) — Oakland Raiders
2009: Matthew Stafford (Georgia) — Detroit Lions
2010: Sam Bradford (Oklahoma) — St. Louis Rams
2011: Cam Newton (Auburn) — Carolina Panthers
2012: Andrew Luck (Stanford) — Indianapolis Colts
2015: Jameis Winston (Florida State) — Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2016: Jared Goff (California) — Los Angeles Rams
2018: Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma) — Cleveland Browns
2019: Kyler Murray (Oklahoma) — Arizona Cardinals
2020: Joe Burrow (LSU) — Cincinnati Bengals
2021: Trevor Lawrence (Clemson) — Jacksonville Jaguars
2023: Bryce Young (Alabama) — Carolina Panthers
2024: Caleb Williams (USC) — Chicago Bears
2025: Cam Ward (Miami) — Tennessee Titans

Not speaking for Medaille, in bold are my top 6. I think Caleb has a chance to get there too. 

My next tier would include Baker, Murray, Smith, Winston, Lawrence and (maybe) Young. Then u got the rest and the turds.

I think Murray has a chance to elevate his game quite a bit. The coach and player surround I would says is > adequate and better than he's had at any time as a pro. 

I'll bet the locker room is psyched to have him here too - something we dont talk about much.

[JR44]

You know what the standard is.  By any standard for a #1 overall pick, Kyler hasn’t lived up to them, unless your standard is like Kirk Cousins level or below.  Murray just got kicked off his team and they’d rather enter the QB lottery to try and find a new one rather than keep going with him.

We don’t need to pretend all his lack of winning is everyone else’s fault and that he’s on the level with QBs that elevate the players around him and carry teams to the playoffs.  He is not.  Hopefully, he doesn’t have to be a team carrier here, because we surround him with adequate talent.

They said the same things about Darnold before he got here and I think that turned out pretty well and he proved everyone wrong.

The language that he got kicked off his team is not accurate language and loaded with agendas.  They have a new HC, they are not in the same place as we are, they are in rebuilding mode and most likely going to tank this year.

[StickierBuns]

You know what the standard is.  By any standard for a #1 overall pick, Kyler hasn’t lived up to them, unless your standard is like Kirk Cousins level or below.  Murray just got kicked off his team and they’d rather enter the QB lottery to try and find a new one rather than keep going with him.

We don’t need to pretend all his lack of winning is everyone else’s fault and that he’s on the level with QBs that elevate the players around him and carry teams to the playoffs.  He is not.  Hopefully, he doesn’t have to be a team carrier here, because we surround him with adequate talent.

I think there are points on both sides to be made: one for Murray's past and one for his future. The point about his past is obvious and can be spoken to accurately....his future however remains to be seen and we can only speculate. But that speculation has more reference points than ever as it stands right now that this might turn out well (Darnold, Mayfield, and even Daniel Jones in Indy before being injured) that a successful 2.0 version can be achieved with the right coaching and surround for a highly talented former lesser-than. 

Neither point can be dismissed because you have to recognize both, but past performance isn't a guarantee of future results...which in this case means just because he underperformed before doesnt mean he will in Minnesota.

[1VikesFan]

There will definitely be competition but I belive it's Murray's job to lose. If JJM completely outperforms KM (which I doubt happens) then give JJM the QB1 role.

[MaroonBells]

They said the same things about Darnold before he got here and I think that turned out pretty well and he proved everyone wrong.

The language that he got kicked off his team is not accurate language and loaded with agendas.  They have a new HC, they are not in the same place as we are, they are in rebuilding mode and most likely going to tank this year.

This. 

Teams moving on from highly drafted QBs is nothing new. See Darnold, Brees, Stafford, Mayfield, Alex Smith, Steve Young, Plunkett. Each of these situations is unique so I’m not arguing that they’re exactly the same. Just that moving on is not unusual, and that many times these QBs go on to have success in a new setting. And that’s the bulk of my argument: SURROUND. And the massive difference it can make.

In Kyler’s case, we’re talking about a QB who had already gotten his 2nd contract, which is a level of achievement many of the QBs on that list above did not earn. What’s more, he was owed $36.8 million guaranteed for 2026, with another $19.5 million in 2027 that would have fully guaranteed on March 15 of THIS year if they had kept him. That’s $56.3M guaranteed!

Now, under some circumstances—Mahomes, Allen, Burrow—you probably just pay that. In others—Lawrence, Prescott, Purdy—it’s more of a question. But in this case, Murray was hurt again in 2025. They were set to hire a new head coach and a new offensive coordinator, which meant another new offense for Murray to learn for the second time in three seasons. He wanted to be released. And LaFleur and Hackett wanted to tank and reset with their own guy. 

Honestly, if I’m in their shoes, I probably do the same thing. That does not, however, mean the Vikings were not just handed a gift from the football gods. And my mind boggles that more people don’t understand that.

[pattersaur]

The best things about Kyler is he came cheap and has upside.

The worst things about Kyler is that at the end of the day, what he's done in the NFL landed him here with us, hoping to jumpstart his career. There were about 25 NFL teams who had zero interest in Kyler being their starter. There were about 7 teams who did. So to me he's a bottom thirdish QB right now with top thirdish upside. It's a smart gamble by the Vikings.

The unspoken part- The Vikings "good fortune" is a crap sandwich for McCarthy and his truthers, and there's been enough bizarre rumblings and actions coming from the Vikings org this offseason that I think there's reasons to be concerned about how stable the foundation of the franchise is right now, and who our cornerstones for the next 3-5 years will be.

[MaroonBells]

The best things about Kyler is he came cheap and has upside.

The worst things about Kyler is that at the end of the day, what he's done in the NFL landed him here with us, hoping to jumpstart his career. There were about 25 NFL teams who had zero interest in Kyler being their starter. There were about 7 teams who did. So to me he's a bottom thirdish QB right now with top thirdish upside. It's a smart gamble by the Vikings.

The unspoken part- The Vikings "good fortune" is a crap sandwich for McCarthy and his truthers, and there's been enough bizarre rumblings and actions coming from the Vikings org this offseason that I think there's reasons to be concerned about how stable the foundation of the franchise is right now, and who our cornerstones for the next 3-5 years will be.

Where are you getting this?

[medaille]

You tell me what the standard is. Is your standard based on some vague, ethereal notion of what a #1 pick should be? Or is it based on what a #1 overall pick actually is based on historical precedence? 

Here's a list. You decide where Kyler Murray fits in...

1999: Tim Couch (Kentucky) — Cleveland Browns
2001: Michael Vick (Virginia Tech) — Atlanta Falcons
2002: David Carr (Fresno State) — Houston Texans
2003: Carson Palmer (USC) — Cincinnati Bengals
2004: Eli Manning (Ole Miss) — San Diego Chargers (traded to New York Giants)
2005: Alex Smith (Utah) — San Francisco 49ers
2007: JaMarcus Russell (LSU) — Oakland Raiders
2009: Matthew Stafford (Georgia) — Detroit Lions
2010: Sam Bradford (Oklahoma) — St. Louis Rams
2011: Cam Newton (Auburn) — Carolina Panthers
2012: Andrew Luck (Stanford) — Indianapolis Colts
2015: Jameis Winston (Florida State) — Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2016: Jared Goff (California) — Los Angeles Rams
2018: Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma) — Cleveland Browns
2019: Kyler Murray (Oklahoma) — Arizona Cardinals
2020: Joe Burrow (LSU) — Cincinnati Bengals
2021: Trevor Lawrence (Clemson) — Jacksonville Jaguars
2023: Bryce Young (Alabama) — Carolina Panthers
2024: Caleb Williams (USC) — Chicago Bears
2025: Cam Ward (Miami) — Tennessee Titans

There is never ever going to be a measurable standard.  All metrics are subject to being wrong.  What you are looking for in a #1 overall QB or for that matter any first round QB is less tangible than that. 

We all know how much a franchise QB costs.  I think ultimately, where the line is, is something like “You want a guy that you don’t feel bad about paying franchise QB money to”.  You want a guy that you give them $55-$60M a year, and you can build a team around them that can take you to the SB.  This is a QB who should give you multiple shots at a SB.  These are guys that are elevating and carrying the rest of the team. 

What you aren’t hoping for is a guy that only works … if the price is right.  You aren’t hoping for a guy … that only wins if everything is perfect.  I think Kyler is in this camp.  He’s good enough that you’ll end up paying him more than you should and the roster will deteriorate around him, and every year will be harder and harder until eventually you cut him and fire everyone.

I think Kyler is a guy who can find a long home with a team if he costs $30-$35M a year.  I think if he cost that much, he’d still be on the Cardinals.  At league minimum, he’s definitely a bargain.  If he’s asking $50M+, I’d only do that a year at a time.

Where is he on the list?  Probably between Carson Palmer and Alex Smith on a healthy year.