He Announced His Presence With Authority

[Guest]

Great game. Looked to be a blowout by the pats early but the chiefs hung tough and ended ip blowing up the pats D as the injuries added up. Pats could be in trouble this year (fingers crossed), by the end of the game they basically had no defense. They are also down to their 4th WR as their #1. D line looked absent. 

I'd be more optimistic about the Chiefs but Berry is likely done for the season and thats going to hurt that D. 

Hunts performance makes me stoked to Cook. But I wish I had more confidence in our O line. KC was giving Smith enough time to make him look like a hall of famer. 

Really fun game to start the season though. Its so great that football is back!

[Guest]

If I gambled, I would have a rule to never bet week 1.  Big talk, small time gambler I know was talking about betting the pats very confidently. 

[Guest]

@JimmyinSD said:
Where are all the 16-0 talkers this morning?

Yep. And in true national sports media fashion, now its 'What's wrong with the Patriot's D'? 'Flawed' team. SMH, so unbelievably fickle. But when they are called on it, they do the 'what...me?' thing I hate. Beyond reproach.

[Guest]

@StickyBun said:

@JimmyinSD said:
Where are all the 16-0 talkers this morning?

Yep. And in true national sports media fashion, now its 'What's wrong with the Patriot's D'? 'Flawed' team. SMH, so unbelievably fickle. But when they are called on it, they do the 'what...me?' thing I hate. Beyond reproach.

wasn't it 2 years ago the chiefs embarrassed them and everyone was talking about Brady being done?

[Guest]

@Bezerker88 said:
Kid was drafted third round 86th pick or somewhere around there.  

just another question mark for our scouts and front office talent evaluation and decision making skills?  

or is it develop a line and you can make any RB look good?

This season will answer those questions. 

Exactly! Because,.you know, 1 game equals an entire career, right? 

[Guest]

@JimmyinSD said:
Where are all the 16-0 talkers this morning?

 
In KC eating leftover BBQ ribs... B)

[Guest]

@Bezerker88 said:
Kid was drafted third round 86th pick or somewhere around there.  

just another question mark for our scouts and front office talent evaluation and decision making skills?  

or is it develop a line and you can make any RB look good?

This season will answer those questions. 

OMG already slinging arrows based on one player one game only.  14 other games to be played but throwing this crap out even after week 1 is dumb.   My god people.   Calm the F down.

This season will NOT answer those questions.  You need a few years to evaluate picks.

[Guest]

@twgerber said:

@Bezerker88 said:
Kid was drafted third round 86th pick or somewhere around there.  

just another question mark for our scouts and front office talent evaluation and decision making skills?  

or is it develop a line and you can make any RB look good?

This season will answer those questions. 

OMG already slinging arrows based on one player one game only.  14 other games to be played but throwing this crap out even after week 1 is dumb.   My god people.   Calm the F down.

This season will NOT answer those questions.  You need a few years to evaluate picks.

in a league where the avg career is only 2.66 years (wall street journal quoted by SI) and continuing to decrease,  a few years to evaluate is to long for most of these guys.

I am sure much of what Zerker said is tongue in cheek,  but I tend to agree that our scouting dept needs to be evaluated in terms of where they find value.  hitting on first and second rounders isnt really that difficult,  its being able to find consistent talent in the middle rounds is where they are suspect and it could be argued that if Spielman was more confident in his and the scouting departments abilities that he wouldnt  be looking to move out of those middle rounds so often.  (both up for safer picks,  and back for more picks to try and get lucky and find a diamond in the rough through sheer numbers)

[Guest]

Historic Success ChartThe numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:
1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)
2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)
3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)
4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)
5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)
6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)
7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)
https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20...t-by-round



Round 1 isn't the resounding hit rate one would expect really.  60% or so?   Round 2 drops even further.


Also found this chart...

[Guest]

@twgerber said:
Historic Success ChartThe numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:
1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)
2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)
3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)
4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)
5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)
6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)
7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)
https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20...t-by-round



Round 1 isn't the resounding hit rate one would expect really.  60% or so?   Round 2 drops even further.


Also found this chart...

ok,  not sure what all this is trying to show?  it stands to reason that higher talented (drafted ) players on avg will have longer careers.  so is the bang for the buck better having a 4th round pick or 2 in the 7th?

Heres some numbers from 2014 that lists starters by round drafted in terms of qty (freq) % of total and a cumulative %.  (Forbes)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015...dcc6736315

Round	Freq.	Percent	Cuml
1	178	29.9	29.9
2	104	17.5	47.4
3	75	12.6	60.0
4	64	10.8	70.8
5	38	6.4	77.2
6	29	4.9	82.0
7	25	4.2	86.2
Undrafted	81	13.6	99.8
Supplemental	1	0.2	100.0
Total	595	100