Viking preview

[comet52]

This is from a handicapper whose work I respect.  YMMV.

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2024 Season in Review What an incredible 2024 season for the Minnesota Vikings. If you read my 2024 NFL Preview, you know
how high I was on Minnesota and had a long shot KOC coach of the year ticket. What the Vikings accomplished last year, going 14-
3, was beyond my wildest expectations. Minnesota went over their closing win total by 7 wins, the highest mark in the NFL since
2004. The coaching chops of both KOC and DC Brian Flores married with one of the most talented rosters in the NFL, helped carry
Sam Darnold to respectability and the Vikings to the Playoffs. 

Justin Jefferson was awesome at WR and Flores led the Vikings to the 2nd ranked EPA defense in the NFL. Unfortunately, after a dream season, things came crashing down in a 31-9 blowout loss to the Rams in the Wildcard Round. Darnold ranked top 10 in EPA over the first 17 weeks of the season but turned back into a pumpkin in their final two games. 2nd year QB JJ McCarthy takes over as the franchise QB for Darnold who left for Seattle in free agency

Luck Factor Even though the Vikings won 14 games, they ranked just 9th in the NFL in point differential. They were also 9-1 in one
score games, leading Minnesota to posting the 2nd highest win % over expected based on blended 4th quarter win probabilities
(+11.8%). Their underlying metrics were much more indicative of a 12-win team. There have been 14 other teams with a 90%+ close
game win percentage since 2000 and in aggregate those teams won just 51% of their close games the next season. Among a
sample of 18 other teams with an 85%+ close game win percentage, who also outperformed their 4th quarter win probabilities by
at least 10%, only six of those teams went over their win total the following season. If you analyze the teams that cleared the win
total out of this subset, it’s all teams with Hall of Fame level QBs. To be fair to the Vikings, almost all of those close wins were
earned. They held >50% blended 4th quarter win share in all but one of those games (23% v ARI) and >80% blended 4th quarter
win probability in five of those wins. Minnesota really benefitted from opponent miscues. They led the league in overall turnovers
forced (33) and EPA gained from turnovers. In addition, Vikings opponents drew the most false start penalties and also committed
the most defensive holding penalties in the NFL. They were #1 in the NFL with 39 automatic first downs gained due to penalty.
Justin Jefferson was likely a big factor in generating those defensive penalties.

Schedule Analysis After playing a league average level schedule last season, Minnesota is expected to face one of my five toughest
schedules this season. They face the 2nd most top 10 opponents based on my ratings (8th) and the 2nd fewest (3) bottom 10 teams
on their schedule. The early part of the Minnesota schedule is unique in that they play four games in the first five weeks in a
standalone tv spot, including the opening MNF game in Chicago. In wee 4, the Vikings partake in a rare back to back overseas road
trip. They face the Steelers in Dublin then hop on a short flight to London for a week 5 game against the Browns. It’s probably too
small of a sample to make any conclusions but common sense does say already having your body acclimated to the time zone is a
decent advantage. Following a week 6 bye week to catch their breath, they face a gauntlet of opponents that includes Philly, LA
Chargers, Detroit, Baltimore, Chicago and Green Bay.. That’s five of six opponents favored to make the Playoffs. Their first 12 games
consist of just one cupcake (Cleveland), six potential Playoff teams, two overseas games and three night games. That is one hell of a
welcome to the NFL for McCarthy.

Offseason The biggest move of the offseason was allowing Darnold to walk in free agency. Nobody knows for sure how this will go
for McCarthy but we do know KOC has proven to be able to take all different types and talent level at QB and generate successful
offense. McCarthy is the only QB that KOC has worked with in Minnesota with the combination of athleticism and above average
arm talent. While Darnold was excellent at generating explosive plays down the field, but his inconsistencies really started to show
late in the season. He took nine sacks in their loss to the Rams after struggling in the season finale vs the Lions. Otherwise on
offense, Minnesota added RB Jordan Mason to complement Aaron Jones. Very quietly, the Vikings run offense was atrocious when it
mattered last year. Their -0.42 EPA per rush in the red zone ranked dead last in the NFL as Jones ranked last among RBs in rush
yards over expected, success rate and EPA inside the red zone. He was also just 3/20 in success rate in goal to go situations. 

Mason wasn’t much better in the red zone (23% success rate) but at least his style of running is more conducive to short yardage situations.
They did try and improve the interior of the OL by using their top pick on OSU Guard Donovan Jackson as well as signing C Ryan
Kelly and Guard Will Fries away from the Colts in FA. All three have the ability to play really well but they also have big question
marks. Who knows how quickly Jackson contributes as a rookie and Kelly has battled multiple injuries the last two seasons, missing
10 games. Fries played really well in his five starts last year before missing the rest of the season with right leg fracture. In his first
three seasons, however, Fries graded out poorly. Not to mention, All-Pro LT Christian Darrisaw is trying to come back from an ACL
tear and the team is not sure if he will be able to start week 1. Veteran swing OL Justin Skule was also signed from the Bucs and
provides a stop gap if needed. While the OL could be much improved, there is also a chance that it will take time until they can gel.

Defensively, the Vikings were awesome last year but decided to improve even further with the acquisitions of DL Javon Hargrave
and Jonathan Allen. They should improve the pass rush, however, both are on the downward trajectory of their careers. The Vikings
are light in the CB room with both Stefon Gilmore and Shaq Griffin no longer on the roster. Instead, Minnesota looks like they will
rely on Isaiah Rodgers and Jeff Okudah in those starting spots. Rodgers was fine in a reserved role with Philly last year, but Okudah
has been awful throughout his career. The good news is Flores is as good as it gets at hiding deficient secondary talent.

2025 Outlook Just like last season, there is a ton to like from this Vikings team. Between great coaching and a loaded roster,
Minnesota certainly can advance deep into the Playoffs depending on McCarthy’s upside. I am much more lukewarm versus a
season ago since expectations are much higher right now and the schedule should be really difficult. That early stretch will test
McCarthy and having an unstable OL situation right off the bat, with Darrisaw likely not in the lineup, can derail things early. My
baseline for this team is just over 8 wins but the right tail outcome is a potential Super Bowl contender.

[MaroonBells]

Some fair points here. But this one is misleading.

“Schedule Analysis After playing a league average level schedule last season, Minnesota is expected to face one of my five toughest schedules this season.”

In terms of their opponents' previous year winning percentage, the Vikings schedule this year ranks 5th in difficulty. At this time last year, before any games were played, the Vikings schedule likewise ranked 5th in difficulty. But many of the teams we faced last year just weren’t as good as they were supposed to be. The Texans, 49ers and Jets among them. So yes, if our 2025 opponents play EXACTLY like they’re supposed to, then this could be a more difficult schedule, but we all know that never happens.

The biggest reason we rank so high in terms of difficulty is that we play a 15-win team and an 11-win team twice each. But these are divisional games, meaning they’re dogfights and you can probably throw records out the window.

[comet52]

Some fair points here. But this one is misleading.

“Schedule Analysis After playing a league average level schedule last season, Minnesota is expected to face one of my five toughest schedules this season.”

In terms of their opponents' previous year winning percentage, the Vikings schedule this year ranks 5th in difficulty. At this time last year, before any games were played, the Vikings schedule likewise ranked 5th in difficulty. But many of the teams we faced last year just weren’t as good as they were supposed to be. The Texans, 49ers and Jets among them. So yes, if our 2025 opponents play EXACTLY like they’re supposed to, then this could be a more difficult schedule, but we all know that never happens.

The biggest reason we rank so high in terms of difficulty is that we play a 15-win team and an 11-win team twice each. But these are divisional games, meaning they’re dogfights and you can probably throw records out the window.

I don't know where our schedule ranks if you look at prior year winning % but most betting analysts now use market win totals for S.O.S. because prior year records are not very useful.  For example:
https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/an...-schedule/

So the Vikings are facing the 5th most difficult schedule this year.  We had a few cream puffs last year including the AFC South.  It is a harder schedule imo no matter how you slice it.

And yes it's true that upcoming opps could play below (or above) their market expectations but this is pretty much the best we have to go on and make predictions before games are actually played.

Combining that S.O.S. with an unknown at QB is why opinions are mostly in the 8-9 win range.  Money has moved it from 8.5 to more like 9.5 (if you see 8.5 with heavy juice it's basically the same thing) so that tells us there is some sharp money that believes this will be a better than average team..  

As the author notes, a fat tail outcome could be as high as a championship.   So there's your hopium, go fire up the bowl! . Personally I think we're gonna be in that 8-9 win range as this off-season is giving me some uncertain vibes lately.  I was higher on the team a couple of months ago tbh.

[Montana Tom]

Regarding tough teams or weak teams, I remember a quote from Jared Allen years ago after we lost a stinker to a weak (at the time) KC Chiefs team.

"hey, it's the NFL. Everyone is good"

[greediron]

Regarding tough teams or weak teams, I remember a quote from Jared Allen years ago after we lost a stinker to a weak (at the time) KC Chiefs team.

"hey, it's the NFL.  Everyone is good"

yes, and the year to year changes make the strength of schedule rather a moot point.  To me the toughness comes within the division.  If division teams are tough, then the schedule is going to be very hard.