Iran Capitulating

[Waterboy]

You have to let the Iraniam people uprise first.  If you take out the Ayatollah, that power void will be immediately filled by the military.  Not sure that having the Revolutionary guard in charge is better than the 

I’m not sure I totally agree or disagree with you here.  There are a lot of ways in this free for all environment that it could go, but a front-runner scenario would certainly be what you spell out.  I think anything is better than a radical Muslim cleric.  A tamed military that could take control and install order isn’t all bad.  Something resembling the Revolutionary Guard would be, but they’re so decimated that they may not look very similar post war.

[JimmyinSD]

Have we not learned the wisdom behind " the devil we know"?   The US's "king maker" efforts dont typically have the best long term results for the people of the country we meddle in,  or our own standing in that country/region.

[Waterboy]

Have we not learned the wisdom behind " the devil we know"?   The US's "king maker" efforts dont typically have the best long term results for the people of the country we meddle in,  or our own standing in that country/region.

I don't know if you meant this for me, but I'm not advocating us installing anyone. I also don't think you could find a regime that is worse than what's in place right now.  The problem is as bad as it is, it has provided internal stability in a Stalinist Russia kind of way.  We (collectively with Israel or Israel itself) have to take out his nukes in a visibly obvious manner.  And once that has occurred, there's no way Khamenei stays in power.  What could be of benefit, however, is the alignment with the other Arab states and the Iran people's wishes to become prosperous, perhaps the leadership that emerges looks more moderate.  There will be triggers being pulled from the Arab states I have to believe, but at least the moves will be regionally influenced and not as a result of the Great Satan.   Just my read and I could be WAY off.  lol   I'm not an expert in Mideast studies but do understand the basic dynamics at work and some of the specifics on the make-ups of the populations.

[JimmyinSD]

I don't know if you meant this for me, but I'm not advocating us installing anyone. I also don't think you could find a regime that is worse than what's in place right now.  The problem is as bad as it is, it has provided internal stability in a Stalinist Russia kind of way.  We (collectively with Israel or Israel itself) have to take out his nukes in a visibly obvious manner.  And once that has occurred, there's no way Khamenei stays in power.  What could be of benefit, however, is the alignment with the other Arab states and the Iran people's wishes to become prosperous, perhaps the leadership that emerges looks more moderate.  There will be triggers being pulled from the Arab states I have to believe, but at least the moves will be regionally influenced and not as a result of the Great Satan.   Just my read and I could be WAY off.  lol   I'm not an expert in Mideast studies but do understand the basic dynamics at work and some of the specifics on the make-ups of the populations.

wasnt meant for anybody in particular,  just my observation that when the CIA... I mean the US Govt is involved in removing a known evil,  quite often they are replaced with a bigger evil, or hand picked entity that feels above reproach since they have the "blessing" of Uncle Sam.   I think if you want to see real democracy spread,  it needs to be organic,  we cant dictate it and "create" it like we so often seem to be compelled to do.  I hate seeing people suffer as much as anybody,  but if those people arent in a position to rise up on their own,  they are only going to become a new dependent group once they are in control as they are not prepared or equipped to lead a nation,  or simply will be slaughtered and replaced with the next evil.

vacuums dont exist for long before nature fills it, power vacuums even less,  it would be great to see a better Iran,  but are the Iranian people ready for that,  or are we talking about a new game of whack a mole that like Badger says, the next mole may have even less respect for life.

[purplefaithful]

I think they needed to give diplomacy more time. In 20 years we've now bombed and fought in Iraq, Iran, Libya, Afghanistan, Syria, who am I missing? Lebanon maybe?

How many of those endeavors ended well for us? Or them?

I dont like where this could net out long term with an extreme muslim govt still in place. They will find ways to build material and or dirty bombs.

Whose to say those 3 sites were the extent of Irans capabilities? Are we in full nuke whack-a-mole mode now?

This is all very off-brand for a Populist/Isolationist/America First Potus. An evolved view of the world from a more experienced Potus?

All that said, I see the rational for why they went in yesterday; it's been a long time since Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas were all this weakened. Still dangerous, but weakened. The Houthis still have fangs.

Doesnt feel like time to celebrate a victory to me. Not unless Iran comes to the table willing to sign a ZERO weapons grade policy and dismantles their ballistic missiles.

What are the odds for that?

---

I dont trust Hegseth as a person or a leader. I'm sure not buying what he's selling (yet):

“The order we received from our commander in chief was focused, it was powerful, and it was clear,” Hegseth said from the Pentagon podium. We devastated the Iranian nuclear program, but it’s worth noting the operation did not target Iranian troops or the Iranian people. … Thanks to President Trump’s bold and visionary leadership and his commitment to peace through strength, Iran’s nuclear ambitions have been obliterated.”

[Waterboy]

I think they needed to give diplomacy more time. In 20 years we've now bombed and fought in Iraq, Iran, Libya, Afghanistan, Syria, who am I missing? Lebanon maybe?

How many of those endeavors ended well for us? Or them?

I dont like where this could net out long term with an extreme muslim govt still in place. They will find ways to build material and or dirty bombs.

Whose to say those 3 sites were the extent of Irans capabilities? Are we in full nuke whack-a-mole mode now?

This is all very off-brand for a Populist/Isolationist/America First Potus. An evolved view of the world from a more experienced Potus?

All that said, I see the rational for why they went in yesterday; it's been a long time since Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas were all this weakened. Still dangerous, but weakened. The Houthis still have fangs.

Doesnt feel like time to celebrate a victory to me. Not unless Iran comes to the table willing to sign a ZERO weapons grade policy and dismantles their ballistic missiles.

What are the odds for that?

If the three sites are not the extent of their capabilities, that to me makes me glad we attacked as well.  They CANNOT have a nuclear weapon.  These guys will use them.  If we find that we have more work to do, then we’ll do it.  The Houthis do not have as much firepower as they once had. They have been significantly degraded as well.  

One major difference here is that we’ve combined extremely developed intelligence via the Israeli’s and probably have a better picture of the objectives we need to it.  Iran is not going to go all the way to the lengths you’re pointing out, but this is still Israel’s war overall, and they will do a lot of the dirty work that I think ends with the Ayatollah being out of power.  The US will do what’s necessary to keep this headed the right direction but that involves intermittent support, not full-fledged involvement.  Any actions that Iran takes from this point forward were just looming threats waiting to happen had we not become involved.  They have been committed to doing as much damage possible to the US and Israel forever.   That was not heightened as a result of recent strikes.

[purplefaithful]

If the three sites are not the extent of their capabilities, that to me makes me glad we attacked as well.  They CANNOT have a nuclear weapon.  These guys will use them.  If we find that we have more work to do, then we’ll do it.  The Houthis do not have as much firepower as they once had. They have been significantly degraded as well.  

One major difference here is that we’ve combined extremely developed intelligence via the Israeli’s and probably have a better picture of the objectives we need to it.  Iran is not going to go all the way to the lengths you’re pointing out, but this is still Israel’s war overall, and they will do a lot of the dirty work that I think ends with the Ayatollah being out of power.  The US will do what’s necessary to keep this headed the right direction but that involves intermittent support, not full-fledged involvement.  Any actions that Iran takes from this point forward were just looming threats waiting to happen had we not become involved.  They have been committed to doing as much damage possible to the US and Israel forever.   That was not heightened as a result of recent strikes.

At the bold...

Time will tell...I think the Straits of Hormuz commerce and our troops on the ground presence in the Gulf are all viable targets for a reaction from IRAN. 

That likelihood has w/out a doubt increased due to yesterday.

[BigAl99]

At the bold...

Time will tell...I think the Straits of Hormuz commerce and our troops on the ground presence in the Gulf are all viable targets for a reaction from IRAN. 

That likelihood has w/out a doubt increased due to yesterday.

Once again the lessons of "asymmetric warfare" will be repeated, damage to the US will not be done by nation states or regular armies. These lesson will repeat till long after I am gone,

[purplefaithful]

Anyone who thinks this strike ended Irans ambitions or capabilities may be way off point. I sure hope that's not what the Admin will be publicly preaching. I wont be lapping that up at all.  

Could be whack-a-mole with nukes season now. 

Maybe it'll bring Iran to the table? Eventually? Maybe...

The ruling govt is still the problem:

Before the Israeli military campaign began, Iran said it had declared a third, unknown site as a new enrichment facility.

“Questions remain as to where Iran may be storing its already enriched stocks … as these will have almost certainly been moved to hardened and undisclosed locations, out of the way of potential Israeli or U.S. strikes," said Darya Dolzikova, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute focused on nonproliferation issues.

“It is also unclear what secret facilities may exist inside Iran that Tehran could use for continued centrifuge production enrichment and weapons-relevant activities.”

Associated Press