Iran Capitulating

[purplefaithful]

President Donald Trump will decide whether to launch a US strike on Iran within the next two weeks, he said in a statement delivered by his press secretary during a briefing Thursday.

Trump said he wanted to allow diplomatic efforts to proceed before making a final decision on US military action.

“Based on the fact that there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks,” said the president in his statement, which was read aloud by press secretary Karoline Leavitt from the White House briefing room.

CNN

[Waterboy]

President Donald Trump will decide whether to launch a US strike on Iran within the next two weeks, he said in a statement delivered by his press secretary during a briefing Thursday.

Trump said he wanted to allow diplomatic efforts to proceed before making a final decision on US military action.

“Based on the fact that there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks,” said the president in his statement, which was read aloud by press secretary Karoline Leavitt from the White House briefing room.

CNN

That says a whole lot of nothing.     We could be nuking them in ten mins and still be truthful with that statement.

[badgervike]

I keep hearing reporting that the US would need to fly B-2's from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri to carry the Bunker Buster bombs. I'm pretty sure we have B-2's located elsewhere around the globe.  I'm wondering if this is purposeful disinformation which we know is going on as this progresses.  I believe we're going in, but it's not going to be when Iran thinks.  I think Trump in his head knows that this group will never negotiate in good faith on their nuclear program and has probably made the decision to go in absent a total surprise development.

The US genuinely doesn't want to get involved.  They want this negotiated and to have the weapons capability dismantled.  Some bad outcomes could come with bombing for Israel.  

What if we bomb Fordow and it doesn't achieve the objective?   Part of having the MOPS is as a deterrent.  If dropping them doesn't achieve the objective...other rogue regimes will just dig deeper.  
What if the bombing is too successful...and radiation is leaked across the Middle East?  Think that's going to work out in our favor?
Bombing Fordow would give Iran an excuse for rogue attacks on the US.  Attacks on infrastructure...  Maybe a dirty bomb in a populated area?

Just my two cents.  Let the Israel AF keep dropping bombs on Fordow for a while and see how that goes.  Let Iran know that if even a cubic yard of dirt is repaired...you're just going to drop more bombs.

Iran is quickly running out of missiles to defend themselves.  

It might be time for Israel to "accidently" take down the Ayatollah with an errant missile or at least scare him into compliance.  Remember when they killed Gaddafi's son?  I have it on very good authority the Intelligence community was convinced that if they killed Gaddafi, his replacement would be as bad or worse.  On the day they killed his son in a missile strike, they had also locked in on Gaddafi himself.  Immediately after, they sent him video of himself going into a safehouse and gun footage from an Apache of them locking on the safehouse and firing a missile.  They self destructed the missile before it reached the target.  They moved to another location and killed his son.  The CIA than bundled up the gun footage of him going into a building, the Apache launching the missile, the self destruct and the subsequent gun video of the missile strik that killed his son.  They included a message that said we can always find you and will not self destruct the missile the next time.  If you remember, Gaddafi was pretty tame at the end of his reign.

[Waterboy]

The US genuinely doesn't want to get involved.  They want this negotiated and to have the weapons capability dismantled.  Some bad outcomes could come with bombing for Israel.  

What if we bomb Fordow and it doesn't achieve the objective?   Part of having the MOPS is as a deterrent.  If dropping them doesn't achieve the objective...other rogue regimes will just dig deeper.  
What if the bombing is too successful...and radiation is leaked across the Middle East?  Think that's going to work out in our favor?
Bombing Fordow would give Iran an excuse for rogue attacks on the US.  Attacks on infrastructure...  Maybe a dirty bomb in a populated area?

Just my two cents.  Let the Israel AF keep dropping bombs on Fordow for a while and see how that goes.  Let Iran know that if even a cubic yard of dirt is repaired...you're just going to drop more bombs.

Iran is quickly running out of missiles to defend themselves.  

It might be time for Israel to "accidently" take down the Ayatollah with an errant missile or at least scare him into compliance.  Remember when they killed Gaddafi's son?  I have it on very good authority the Intelligence community was convinced that if they killed Khadafi, his replacement would be as bad or worse.  On the day they killed his son in a missile strike, they had also locked in on Gaddafi himself.  Immediately after, they sent him video of himself going into a safehouse and gun footage from an Apache of them locking on the safehouse and firing a missile.  They self destructed the missile before it reached the target.  They moved to another location and killed his son.  The CIA than bundled up the gun footage of him going into a building, the Apache launching the missile, the self destruct and the subsequent gun video of the missile strik that killed his son.  They included a message that said we can always find you and will not self destruct the missile the next time.  If you remember, Gaddafi was pretty tame at the end of his reign.

Yeah, he gave up his nukes and we then proceeded to kill him which told future dictators not to give up their nukes.  I think we need to deal with the current situation with whatever means it takes to firmly address no nukes.  We can't afford to get this close to having the no Iran nuke problem solved only to let them wiggle off the hook due to other world circumstances moving our eye off the ball.  I'm no expert, but I would prefer we focus on the one main goal and make sure it's achieved now that much of the other dirty work has been done.  I say this based off what we believe to be the conditions today.  The actuals could be far different.

[badgervike]

Is Israel drops enough bombs on Fordow, it will be obvious via reconnaissance if they are trying to reopen it or other facilities. You can likely even get a UN supported resolution that trades a cease fire for not reopening their bombed facilities. If Iran goes back on their word, Israel can just keep dropping bombs on Nuclear facilities, key personnel, military targets and oil infrastructure until the Iranians stop trying to rebuild. Nobody will ever just take Iran's word for it again. I guess I should have said "no Republican" will ever take Iran's word for it. Obama and Biden sure thought it was possible.

You have Macron and the Europeans heading to meet with the Iranians this weekend...that seems like a great way to F@ck things up. I wonder how much Iran wants this time to pinky swear they'll only produce energy grade material.

[purplefaithful]

I am 100% for a diplomatic solution with oversight.

They start f'ing around and not letting the oversight to be executed properly? Then you gotta bring a hammer again.

I think you need to take out that regime tbh.

Dropping heavy bombs on Fordow is fraught with peril as has been discussed - including bringing the war to our shores/cities/schools.

Criminal immigrants might look pretty good next to who Iran can send here (and probably are here already) to wreak havoc.

No guarantees bombing will succeed either.

[Waterboy]

I am 100% for a diplomatic solution with oversight.

They start f'ing around and not letting the oversight to be executed properly? Then you gotta bring a hammer again.

I think you need to take out that regime tbh. 

Dropping heavy bombs on Fordow is fraught with peril as has been discussed - including bringing the war to our shores/cities/schools. 

Criminal immigrants might look pretty good next to who Iran can send here (and probably are here already) to wreak havoc.

No guarantees bombing will succeed either.

I’m a little more hawkish than both of you I think. Part of that is the pieces are roughly in place to greatly tone down the entire region.   The obvious work done during Trumps Mideast visit tell me he could be about to ramp up the Abram Accords to regional status. While that may leave Iran as an internal question mark, perhaps the broader region dictates the direction of the country. Bottom line, we bombed the shit out of the Houthis.  If this is as simple as a bunch of bunker busters putting them out of the nuclear business, it would be the way to minimize overall death.  I think either way the regime dies here.  I just don’t see how it survives.   This, the chaos is inevitable and I really don’t care what Macron thinks. ?

[purplefaithful]

Unless the regime is beheaded, its nothing but whack-a-mole regarding nukes. Even if Fordow is taken out for now.

[Waterboy]

Unless the regime is beheaded, its nothing but whack-a-mole regarding nukes.  Even if Fordow is taken out for now.

I’m migrating there more and more. He has to be taken out and when he is it opens a whole new can of worms.  But, that concern falls behind a nuclear warhead in the hands of the crazy Ayatollah.

[badgervike]

I’m migrating there more and more. He has to be taken out and when he is it opens a whole new can of worms.  But, that concern falls behind a nuclear warhead in the hands of the crazy Ayatollah.

You have to let the Iraniam people uprise first.  If you take out the Ayatollah, that power void will be immediately filled by the military.  Not sure that having the Revolutionary guard in charge is better than the current situation.