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(04-09-2025, 07:14 PM)Waterboy Wrote: You need to understand that most money is made during this time. Don’t sell low and throw more money in after a really bad day or stretch. The market has one direction over time. It can be frustrating, but remember you’re investing at a discount during this time frame. Five years later, these things turn out quite well if you’re patient.
I completely agree...Just that my runway is a bit less than when I was in my 40's!
I dont like it when Bonds + stocks arent trending well.
Like we've all been saying, we'll see how this all shakes out - its early.
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(04-09-2025, 05:00 PM)purplefaithful Wrote: For sure, this is just another chapter in the novella getting written.
But it's still way too volatile out there...The US Govt Bond Mkt was trending badly in addition to the stock mkt, that was a HUGE red flag and and a major catalyst for Trump to hit pause.
You can say lots of things about Trump, but he knows how things work financially in this country. A tanking bond mkt + tanking stocks was more than even he could want or stomach.
Look, I hope we get to some better agreements, I have my doubts we'll significantly impact trade imbalances. The timelines for bringing factories back to the states way out paces the political timelines.
But, its gotta work or lots of people will be facing tougher times, and the 26 interims will be a blood-bath for team red.
Actually, Treasury had their 10 year bond sale in the morning prior to Trump's pause and they were able to sell at a lower rate than they were trading at due to high demand from Global institutional investors. No doubt hedging against volatility.
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04-10-2025, 08:54 AM
(This post was last modified: 04-10-2025, 08:59 AM by purplefaithful.)
(04-10-2025, 08:39 AM)badgervike Wrote: Actually, Treasury had their 10 year bond sale in the morning prior to Trump's pause and they were able to sell at a lower rate than they were trading at due to high demand from Global institutional investors. No doubt hedging against volatility.
So you're contending the overall dynamics of the Bond mkt didnt play a role in pausing the tariffs? I think Trump is financially smart, read the tea leaves and said hit pause now.
What % of this traces to magnificence from "art of the deal" vs Bond + Stock dynamics?
Many in Washington wants to paint this as all part of the plan, I aint buying into that. I think they saw the writing on the wall and were smart enough to hit pause - before they had one hell of a melt-down on their hands...
Trump surrounded himself with some very smart financial people, I think they knew they were at the precipice of something bad.
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(04-10-2025, 08:54 AM)purplefaithful Wrote: So you're contending the overall dynamics of the Bond mkt didnt play a role in pausing the tariffs? I think Trump is financially smart, read the tea leaves and said hit pause now.
What % of this traces to magnificence from "art of the deal" vs Bond + Stock dynamics?
Many in Washington wants to paint this as all part of the plan, I aint buying into that. I think they saw the writing on the wall and were smart enough to hit pause - before they had one hell of a melt-down on their hands...
Trump surrounded himself with some very smart financial people, I think they knew they were at the precipice of something bad.
I think it's even bigger than that. He's got a variety of options as he proceeds and navigates the path. He's smart enough to adjust on the run based on the feedback. It's more than just hitting pause on the tariffs, it's timing of individual pieces. It probably made sense to hit pause so he could isolate China at this point in time. If China had been more compliant, it may have been different. There's nothing wrong with adjusting as you proceed to obtain the most favorable outcome. It well could be the case that they needed time to negotiate the Korean / Japanese deals and they had too many countries wanting on the short list to get a deal done. I think that is very plausible as well. the key is you don't know, I don't know, and I'm pretty certain China doesn't know where the end game is headed here. That causes uncertainty in the market, but a higher likelihood that the end deal is maximized.
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04-10-2025, 10:03 AM
(This post was last modified: 04-10-2025, 10:18 AM by badgervike.)
(04-10-2025, 08:54 AM)purplefaithful Wrote: So you're contending the overall dynamics of the Bond mkt didnt play a role in pausing the tariffs? I think Trump is financially smart, read the tea leaves and said hit pause now.
What % of this traces to magnificence from "art of the deal" vs Bond + Stock dynamics?
Many in Washington wants to paint this as all part of the plan, I aint buying into that. I think they saw the writing on the wall and were smart enough to hit pause - before they had one hell of a melt-down on their hands...
Trump surrounded himself with some very smart financial people, I think they knew they were at the precipice of something bad.
I didn't say it was part of a plan...
I just said the Bond sale indicated global support for the underlying economic indicators and $90T of 10 year Treasury bonds were sold at about a quarter point lower than anticipated. Lots of hand wringing about the Bond market prior to the sale. I think that was pretty factual... I said nothing about Trump.....
(04-10-2025, 09:15 AM)Waterboy Wrote: I think it's even bigger than that. He's got a variety of options as he proceeds and navigates the path. He's smart enough to adjust on the run based on the feedback. It's more than just hitting pause on the tariffs, it's timing of individual pieces. It probably made sense to hit pause so he could isolate China at this point in time. If China had been more compliant, it may have been different. There's nothing wrong with adjusting as you proceed to obtain the most favorable outcome. It well could be the case that they needed time to negotiate the Korean / Japanese deals and they had too many countries wanting on the short list to get a deal done. I think that is very plausible as well. the key is you don't know, I don't know, and I'm pretty certain China doesn't know where the end game is headed here. That causes uncertainty in the market, but a higher likelihood that the end deal is maximized.
I think the end goal was always to try to minimize or eliminate duties between all Countries and isolate China.
It's been interesting this week with a few of my remaining Chinese vendors (they haven't gone after chip suppliers yet). The Chinese vendors have all indicated that our pricing will remain the same regardless of the tariffs. I was already in the process of on-shoring some of these purchased items at a marginally higher cost but for now...we have options. We'll see how long they can hold out playing the long game. Clearly, the Chinese believe the US public can't live without Temu, Alibaba and Tiktok et al and will protest on their behalf until this is solved to China's satisfaction.
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(04-10-2025, 10:03 AM)badgervike Wrote: I didn't say it was part of a plan...
I just said the Bond sale indicated global support for the underlying economic indicators and $90T of 10 year Treasury bonds were sold at about a quarter point lower than anticipated. Lots of hand wringing about the Bond market prior to the sale. I think that was pretty factual... I said nothing about Trump.....
I think the end goal was always to try to minimize or eliminate duties between all Countries and isolate China.
It's been interesting this week with a few of my remaining Chinese vendors (they haven't gone after chip suppliers yet). The Chinese vendors have all indicated that our pricing will remain the same regardless of the tariffs. I was already in the process of on-shoring some of these purchased items at a marginally higher cost but for now...we have options. We'll see how long they can hold out playing the long game. Clearly, the Chinese believe the US public can't live without Temu, Alibaba and Tiktok et al and will protest on their behalf until this is solved to China's satisfaction.
Even 1 day after tariff pauses, down another grand.
China has always had an attitude regarding their supposed superiority, and their ability to play the long game at everyone else's expense; it works both for and against them as they have to keep their own society in the dark.
I have it on decent authority that their economy isn't as set for the long game as they pretend. The biggest issue with them is Taiwan, as their window to actually do anything about their former territory is limited. I'm hoping that we park a task force in the area as a constant reminder that they shouldn't get too ambitious. For all their bluster about their military toys, it's typically as overstated as the Russian equivalents.
Build on 14-3, take back the NFCN, break the ****ing curse. Simple.
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(04-10-2025, 10:03 AM)badgervike Wrote: I didn't say it was part of a plan...
I just said the Bond sale indicated global support for the underlying economic indicators and $90T of 10 year Treasury bonds were sold at about a quarter point lower than anticipated. Lots of hand wringing about the Bond market prior to the sale. I think that was pretty factual... I said nothing about Trump.....
I think the end goal was always to try to minimize or eliminate duties between all Countries and isolate China.
It's been interesting this week with a few of my remaining Chinese vendors (they haven't gone after chip suppliers yet). The Chinese vendors have all indicated that our pricing will remain the same regardless of the tariffs. I was already in the process of on-shoring some of these purchased items at a marginally higher cost but for now...we have options. We'll see how long they can hold out playing the long game. Clearly, the Chinese believe the US public can't live without Temu, Alibaba and Tiktok et al and will protest on their behalf until this is solved to China's satisfaction.
That's great news. I think China is trying to save face here.
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(04-10-2025, 02:26 PM)Waterboy Wrote: That's great news. I think China is trying to save face here.
Not sure how Chinese vendors attempting to save their businesses by selling product at a loss is good news. The Chinese government isn't paying for their losses. China is my company's second largest market. I've spent 40 years building up the business over there. We export considerably more than we import from China. As some have said, once the tariffs were announced, there were some predictable short term outcomes...namely Chinese retaliation and a short term effect on the stock market. We shipped virtually all the inventory we had to China just prior to the tariffs kicking in including product that was destined for US customers. We're now able to ride out some short term effect of the tariffs. If they go longer, we'll have to figure out a plan. My largest competitors are European so once my inventory in China is depleted, I better have a strategy as my competitors will pay approximately 110% less in duties than I will. So...what to do? I could offshore production in China for Chinese customers but that's inefficient and will take considerable start up costs. I will also have to find a way to protect intellectual property.
China has been gaming the system for a long time so this is a fight that should have been had a long time ago. Clinton said so, Bush said so, Obama said so, Pelosi said so. Politicians are cowards though and they couldn't follow through as it would require them to deal with some pushback on imposing tariffs / sanctions on China. I give Trump credit for that. The Chinese aren't going to cave any time soon. They're counting on the American left and Globalists to do their bidding for them in this hyper politicized World. I see they're pushing Countries such as Australia and the EU to join them in the fight (they said no thank you btw). Lots of treason claims these days in America, etc. Telling everyone that now is a good time to buy stocks is evidently "insider trading" smfh. Cutting waste in government...well that's treasonous too. Let's burn some stuff down and threaten to kill people we disagree with. We gotta rile the base you know.
In the grand scheme of things, short term stock issues don't rise to the level of way more important issues out there. The market will rebound...it always does. Wait until a few of these tariffs get settled.
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The all important American consumer will decide much - as they always do.
Hopefully the consumer sentiment these days wont translate to actual behaviors that mirror their outlook.
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The real issue, one that the MAGAts try so desperately to wave off, is the sheer diplomatic damage being done by emperor prez cheeto. There is a mounting pile of reasons NOT to trust the USA as any kind of partner for a growing number of countries, and seeing our traitor-in-chief misusing power to fire/investigate anyone that disagrees with him too visibly is nauseating. He's already shown zero interest in due process, which should be a huge sticking point for functional Americans.
How can anyone trust a raging, inconsistent, hypocritical, felon oligarch?
Build on 14-3, take back the NFCN, break the ****ing curse. Simple.
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