The Tag and Trade

[MaroonBells]

The young QB suffers a season ending injury and is replaced by the backup. The backup, a 27 year old, former USC QB, who had done nothing in his previous seasons. Now with a very good surround, he takes the team to an 11-win season. 

After the season, with the young starter returning to health, the team places the franchise tag on the backup QB. Couple weeks later he’s traded for a high 2nd round pick. Of course I’m talking about the Patriots, Tom Brady, Matt Cassel and the Chiefs. Someone explain to me how our situation is SO DIFFERENT that we shouldn’t expect to get something for Sam Darnold.

You might argue that Cassel was better than Darnold. Not even close. Cassel's season: 11 wins, 3600 yards, 21 TDs and 11 INTs. Darnold's season: 14 wins, 4300 yards, 35 TDs and 12 INTs. You might argue the upcoming QB class was worse, forcing the Chiefs to make the trade. It wasn't. The Chiefs had the #3 overall pick and Matthew Stafford was in that class. You might argue that Cassel was cheaper than Darnold will be. But that's not true either. By definition, the tag salaries are exactly the same. And later in the offseason, before he even took a snap with the Chiefs, Cassel received an extension that made him the 5th highest paid QB in the NFL.

[purplefaithful]

I think this is about supply and demand then vs today...

All it takes is two teams interested and this is subterfuge season.

Not sure if Darnold/Agent are part of the problem if tag/trade isnt possible?

[comet52]

Maybe it's because Cassell didn't poop his pants with the whole world watching... twice. The market is what it is. The Vikings aren't prepared to have him on the roster at 41 mil, so they can't put the tag on without working a deal behind the scenes.

And it looks like attempts at that haven't panned out although there are still 24 hours or so left. But people who are pretty dialed in have been saying it's unlikely for several days now. Comp pick here we come.

[MaroonBells]

Maybe it's because Cassell didn't poop his pants with the whole world watching... twice.  The market is what it is.  The Vikings aren't prepared to have him on the roster at 41 mil, so they can't put the tag on without working a deal behind the scenes. 

And it looks like attempts at that haven't panned out although there are still 24 hours or so left.  But people who are pretty dialed in have been saying it's unlikely for several days now.  Comp pick here we come.

Patriots would not have been prepared to keep Cassel either. If no team traded for him, they would've been stuck paying Cassel AND Brady, whom they were already paying big money on his 2nd contract. So two QBs with top 5 salaries. The risk was MUCH bigger for them. The Vikings have McCarthy on a rookie salary. 

Another thing is that with Cassel there was no "unleashed raw talent" factor. Darnold was the 3rd overall pick for a reason. Cassel was a 7th rounder for reason. 

I've said all along that I would be surprised if the Vikings were able to tag and trade him. But I don't know why I think that. Probably just inherent purple pessimism. But I think if it doesn't happen, PF is maybe closer to the reason why: lack of cooperation by Darnold and his agent.

[StickierBuns]

 But I think if it doesn't happen, PF is maybe closer to the reason why: lack of cooperation by Darnold and his agent.

And I don't blame them. Minnesota doesn't want him, or not near the level another team will probably 'want' him by giving up a bigger bag for a longer contract period. The Vikings don't owe him anything and vice versa, Minnesota set him up for success, gave him a redemption possibility and he mostly succeeded in return. I'm sure this is what his agent told him. I'm not fretting about it, but of course would love some kind of comp.....I just don't think its going to happen.

[MaroonBells]

I think this is about supply and demand then vs today...

All it takes is two teams interested and this is subterfuge season.

Not sure if Darnold/Agent are part of the problem if tag/trade isnt possible?

While I tend to agree with you on the Darnold/Agent thing, I don't on the supply and demand thing. I'd say the demand for a top QB now is far greater than it was then.

[dadevike]

We have to be willing to do something a player does not like and willing to call others' bluffs. The Vikings can easily add cap space by extending or converting current contracts. If I were the Vikings' owner, I would order KAM to tag Darnold and have Brez create more cap space. Teams will want Darnold. It would take at least a 2d - at least - for me to trade Darnold. Otherwise, he will compete with JJ to be the starter. And as soon as a QB goes down in the preseason or if one is clearly not ready (Sanders or Ward) or has lost it (Rodgers), they will call about Sam. Then it will take at least a 1st to acquire Darnold. What are the Raiders going to do with a new HC in Pete, a new OC, and a new face of ownership in Brady. Are they going to go back to their trash QBs? Maxx will want out as badly as Garrett now does.

Gotta be willing and able to play the game.

[MaroonBells]

We have to be willing to do something a player does not like and willing to call others' bluffs. The Vikings can easily add cap space by extending or converting current contracts. If I were the Vikings' owner, I would order KAM to tag Darnold and have Brez create more cap space. Teams will want Darnold. It would take at least a 2d - at least - for me to trade Darnold. Otherwise, he will compete with JJ to be the starter. And as soon as a QB goes down in the preseason or if one is clearly not ready (Sanders or Ward) or has lost it (Rodgers), they will call about Sam. Then it will take at least a 1st to acquire Darnold. What are the Raiders going to do with a new HC in Pete, a new OC, and a new face of ownership in Brady. Are they going to go back to their trash QBs? Maxx will want out as badly as Garrett now does.

Gotta be willing and able to play the game.

Interesting take. Similar thing happened with the Vikings and Sam Bradford. What's more, Darnold isn't near the injury risk as Bradford was at the time.

[purplefaithful]

We have to be willing to do something a player does not like and willing to call others' bluffs. The Vikings can easily add cap space by extending or converting current contracts. If I were the Vikings' owner, I would order KAM to tag Darnold and have Brez create more cap space. Teams will want Darnold. It would take at least a 2d - at least - for me to trade Darnold. Otherwise, he will compete with JJ to be the starter. And as soon as a QB goes down in the preseason or if one is clearly not ready (Sanders or Ward) or has lost it (Rodgers), they will call about Sam. Then it will take at least a 1st to acquire Darnold. What are the Raiders going to do with a new HC in Pete, a new OC, and a new face of ownership in Brady. Are they going to go back to their trash QBs? Maxx will want out as badly as Garrett now does.

Gotta be willing and able to play the game.

That's $41mm worth of stakes...It could have a really negative impact on FA if things dont play out right.

[MaroonBells]

That's $41mm worth of stakes...It would no doubt impact FA.

Yes it would. Not nearly as much as some think though. Look, you know I love playing devil's advocate, sometimes offering a position I don't necessarily support just to play around with scenarios. 

Think about it this way. The Vikings have $63M in cap space. Take $41M out and you have $22M left. And that's before releasing or restructuring anyone. For the sake of comparison, the Vikings added their best free agent class in history last year and started with $16.9M in cap space.

Releasing Asamoah, Bradbury, and Ingram adds $10M. So $32M total now. Restructure candidates include Brian O'Neill, TJ Hockenson and Jonathan Greenard. It's been said that there is up to $28M in potential savings there. It's doubtful we restructure all of it, so let's just say $20M. So, the Vikings, if they wanted to, could pay Darnold his tag hit AND have nearly three times the cap space they had entering free agency last year.