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Keeping JJM will be a business decision
#1
After listening to all the pundits say why we will re-sign Darnold on a Franchise tag, sign him to a 4-year deal, blah blah ad nauseum, and why we will trade JJM and nobody knows what to do with Daniel Jones...I think I can reasonably forecast what will actually happen in the end. 

It's going to be a business decision (just like letting Cousins walk, which worked out pretty well for us).  After trying to make it complicated, I realized it's not that complicated.

You're going to tie up around $41 million to secure Darnold for one year on a franchise tag, or between $35-$40 million/year on a 3-4 year deal.
You have maybe $50-70 million (depending on who is calculating what) in salary cap room. 
Do you tie up $40mm on one person?  Or do you use that as capital to re-sign the FA's we badly want to keep, and go on the hunt for more help on both interior lines?
JJM's cap hit is team friendly this year and for a couple more years.  

If they are serious about building a Championship calibre TEAM, it makes more sense to spread that salary cap around, not hamstring us into oblivion in future years by deferring cap hits (thanks Spielman).   You've theoretically got say $35mm to spend on improving the roster, and that includes keeping JJM and signing Daniel Jones to a one year backup extension for say $5mm/year (while he attends QB Whisperer School with KOC).  

One variation on that them would be the tag & trade option for Darnold.  Franchise tag him and trade him to some QB desperate team.  There are very few proven options out there and I'm certain that some teams would think they died and went to heaven if they could get Darnold for a bargain $41mm with the option of a long-term deal.  

I'm impressed with some of the moves Kwesi has done to build this roster and get us out of cap hell that he inherited.  It doesn't happen all at once.  I think he learned from blowing the draft his first year, and he's a smart, shrewd guy.  We are sitting with an embarrassment of riches in our QB room, and that give us leverage.  Not one person thought we'd be in this situation 365 days ago.
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#2
I'll repost this here...Doogie is pretty tied in.

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#3
(Yesterday, 01:54 PM)purplefaithful Wrote: I'll repost this here...Doogie is pretty tied in.


I wouldn't agree the Vikings don't know yet....of course they know. Its been thought about long before today. Just because Doogie doesn't know, and yes he's mostly dialed in, doesn't mean the team doesn't. IMO, I think its hard for some fans, media, etc. to grasp the concept that Minnesota might most likely let Darnold go. And couple that with the Vikings probably being very tight lipped about their strategy here, you'll get opinion like Doogie has here because he probably hasn't been told much from his sources and if he has, its easy to say 'we just aren't sure yet'. 

If Minnesota believes that McCarthy is better than advertised when they drafted him, which is what they've said, along with strong sentiment that he's a 'franchise QB', which is what KOC said, then you go with that premise. If you don't, then you stay with Darnold.
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#4
Why pay Darnold to be a 30 million backup QB when he's proven he plays his worst when it matters most? To me the ideal situation is you hand the keys over to McCarthy and make him the unquestioned starter heading into the season. You sign Daniel Jones to be the backup on a short term deal, and someone pays Darnold a lot of money in free agency which results in a comp pick for us.

I think the Vikings fully intend to roll with McCarthy and its the right move to make.
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#5
(Yesterday, 02:16 PM)supafreak84 Wrote: Why pay Darnold to be a 30 million backup QB when he's proven he plays his worst when it matters most? To me the ideal situation is you hand the keys over to McCarthy and make him the unquestioned starter heading into the season. You sign Daniel Jones to be the backup on a short term deal, and someone pays Darnold a lot of money in free agency which results in a comp pick for us.

I think the Vikings fully intend to roll with McCarthy and its the right move to make.

I think of it as:

If Darnold is not our starter, can we get something in return for him? (Tag/Trade)

Qb1 in 25: I would like to see Dimes/JJM compete for it. I dont think JJM has earned the spot yet. 

Got hurt too early for that imo.
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#6
I'm pretty sure they know after post season evaluations which way the team is going to go. However, they have to play it out and see if someone offers a deal they can't refuse; in which case they reevaluate.
Their original plan was to build a team around their first contract QB. The only options I see are signing Darnold to a contract friendly short term contract and competing with JJM for the starting position, or signing Dimes to a short term contract to compete with JJM. Darnold staying seems a very low probability.
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#7
Another thing Doogie mentioned on Skor North, if they tag and trade Darnold they would get picks in the 2025 draft. If they let him walk they wouldn't get the comp pick until the 2026 draft.
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#8
The Vikings might be trying to get something for Sam Darnold, and that might be why we're hearing all of this indecision. If the Vikings truly are undecided, then it probably has to do with determining the best way to maximize the return. 

If tag and trade is off the table, and for whatever reason, many think it is now, I'll go back to what I was thinking a few weeks ago before Sam self destructed. If you can sign him long term--at least two years--you can rehabilitate his image a little in 2025. You can probably expect a similar performance to what he did in 2024. If you don't get that, you just replace him with JJM, Sam is the backup and you trade him in the offseason for a day-two pick. But if you do, then we're no longer talking about day-two picks or comp picks. We're talking about a couple 1st rounders. 

One thing I feel completely confident in is that the Vikings will not trade McCarthy.
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#9
Another possibility, though more unlikely, is to sign free agent Jimmy Garoppolo as a bridge/backup if Sam and Jones walk. He's another Shanahan trained QB, which KOC seems to like, and his current contract with the Rams this year was a little over $3M.
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#10
(Yesterday, 03:07 PM)NorseFeathers Wrote: Another possibility, though more unlikely, is to sign free agent Jimmy Garoppolo as a bridge/backup if Sam and Jones walk. He's another Shanahan trained QB, which KOC seems to like, and his current contract with the Rams this year was a little over $3M.

Stafford hasn't committed to returning next season - yet.  Might be a spot for Sam.  

I think Stafford has like 16 years in the league? I hope he can survive off that pension earned.
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