I think this draft was ok with a chance of being really
good.
I’m a fan of Cook and Elflein. I think both are high floor – high ceiling prospects.
I probably would have went Feeney, but I
can see the desire to go C over G with all the guys we can plug into RG. I’m not really buying into the Cook off the
field issues. I really like Hodges. He was a big value pick in the 6th,
but for the most part I’m not a fan of the bottom bulk of the draft. Isidora and Gedeon are growing on me. It really seemed like we were drafting ST
only players. I think we really should
have drafted a top kicker and/or punter.
Best of class options were available at the bottom of the draft, and it’s
not like many of these late round picks are going to be sticking.
I think a lot of things have to go right for it to be the “best
draft” over the 2015 draft.
Quote: @Jor-El said:
FSUVike knows college football very well and his prospect evaluations are solid. Of course none of his suggested players are in the HOF yet. But neither are any of the guys Spielman picked this spring, but plenty of people are endorsing them. You need to look at the record of the guy who chose all these players, and his strategy of accumulating late picks (rounds 5-7) over earlier ones.
In the drafts from 2006 (when Spielman joined the team) through 2016, he has picked 50 players in rounds 5-7, and 41 in rounds 1-4. We've had an average of 1.5 picks in every round 5 or later, but .93 picks in the first 4. He likes to collect late picks.
For his 50 late-round picks, what has Spielman acquired as far as productive players?- John Sullivan - very good starter
- Stefon Diggs - very good starter, could be great
- Brandon Fusco - decent starter for 5 seasons
- Robert Blanton, Shamar Stephen - fill-in backups
- A couple of kickers who are gone now
3 starters for 50 picks in those late rounds - 1 in 16. He picked 7 late-rounders this year, so we shouldn't expect more than about 1/2 a starting player among Isadora, Adams, Coley, Hodges, and the rest. "Coaches say so-and-so looks great in practice"..? So did MyCole Pruitt, Jeff Baca, Brandon Watts, DeMarcus Love, etc....
Yes FSUVike knows his college football. But so do the scouts that help form the opinions of Spielman. Just saying, denegrating the Vikings late round picks for your guys that haven't played a down in the NFL seems a bit pretentious. Everyone loves their guys, especially late round picks. But no one remembers their late round failures because unlike the actual pros, their "failures" aren't documented.
As to late round picks, Audie Cole stuck on the team for quite a few years as a 7th rounder. That is a solid hit for a 7th rounder. Walsh was a pro-bowler until he got the yips.
And according to your stats, we get +.5 picks in the last 3 rounds for giving up a measly .07 in the first 4. That seems to work out ok.
Could he be better? Sure, our offensive line sez so. But overall, I think he is hitting pretty well. Hunter, Robison, Griff are all 4th rounders and top DEs. The D is filled with studs. Now we need to hit on a few over on the other side.
Quote: @greediron said:
Yes FSUVike knows his college football. But so do the scouts that help form the opinions of Spielman. Just saying, denegrating the Vikings late round picks for your guys that haven't played a down in the NFL seems a bit pretentious. Everyone loves their guys, especially late round picks. But no one remembers their late round failures because unlike the actual pros, their "failures" aren't documented.
As to late round picks, Audie Cole stuck on the team for quite a few years as a 7th rounder. That is a solid hit for a 7th rounder. Walsh was a pro-bowler until he got the yips.
And according to your stats, we get +.5 picks in the last 3 rounds for giving up a measly .07 in the first 4. That seems to work out ok.
Could he be better? Sure, our offensive line sez so. But overall, I think he is hitting pretty well. Hunter, Robison, Griff are all 4th rounders and top DEs. The D is filled with studs. Now we need to hit on a few over on the other side.
I can't compare how FSUVike's picks would have played in the NFL, and not trying to. But I can see how Spielman and his scouts have done. Spielman has tried to add extra picks in the later rounds of the draft - and he has only found 3 starters there in 11 years. OK, we'll add in Audie Cole, whoo. The late picks are not working too well, and my main point was that this history tells us not to get too excited about guys the Vikings scouts draft in late rounds. This team doesn't get much out of those late picks, but Spielman still loves them. All picks are not equal, but he seems to want quantity, not quality. Do you think if I gave him 15 nickels he would give me 9 quarters and be thrilled that he had more coins in his pocket?
Our defense is strong because we have been pumping HIGH draft picks into it the last few years: 5 #1 picks, 2 #2s, a #3 (Hunter), and 2 #4s, not to mention free agents who were high picks originally (Linvalle Joseph 2nd, Datone Jones 1st, Terence Newman 1st). I think Spielman does fine when picking among the top 100-120 prospects each year (the first 4 rounds). But after that he's mostly picking up TC fodder, and it's a shame he trades some of his early picks for late scraps, instead of the other way around.
Quote: @Jor-El said:
@ greediron said:
Yes FSUVike knows his college football. But so do the scouts that help form the opinions of Spielman. Just saying, denegrating the Vikings late round picks for your guys that haven't played a down in the NFL seems a bit pretentious. Everyone loves their guys, especially late round picks. But no one remembers their late round failures because unlike the actual pros, their "failures" aren't documented.
As to late round picks, Audie Cole stuck on the team for quite a few years as a 7th rounder. That is a solid hit for a 7th rounder. Walsh was a pro-bowler until he got the yips.
And according to your stats, we get +.5 picks in the last 3 rounds for giving up a measly .07 in the first 4. That seems to work out ok.
Could he be better? Sure, our offensive line sez so. But overall, I think he is hitting pretty well. Hunter, Robison, Griff are all 4th rounders and top DEs. The D is filled with studs. Now we need to hit on a few over on the other side.
I can't compare how FSUVike's picks would have played in the NFL, and not trying to. But I can see how Spielman and his scouts have done. Spielman has tried to add extra picks in the later rounds of the draft - and he has only found 3 starters there in 11 years. OK, we'll add in Audie Cole, whoo. The late picks are not working too well, and my main point was that this history tells us not to get too excited about guys the Vikings scouts draft in late rounds. This team doesn't get much out of those late picks, but Spielman still loves them. All picks are not equal, but he seems to want quantity, not quality. Do you think if I gave him 15 nickels he would give me 9 quarters and be thrilled that he had more coins in his pocket?
Our defense is strong because we have been pumping HIGH draft picks into it the last few years: 5 #1 picks, 2 #2s, a #3 (Hunter), and 2 #4s, not to mention free agents who were high picks originally (Linvalle Joseph 2nd, Datone Jones 1st, Terence Newman 1st). I think Spielman does fine when picking among the top 100-120 prospects each year (the first 4 rounds). But after that he's mostly picking up TC fodder, and it's a shame he trades some of his early picks for late scraps, instead of the other way around.
for perspective... what is the league average in finding starters in the later rounds? what is the bench mark Rick is being compared to?
also later round players may not develop into studs very often, but they do fill special teams rolls as well as being cheap back ups. we need to have cheap reserve players if we are going to be able to keep most of our quality young vets going onto their second contracts.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pr...aft-class/
The rankings were inspired by his “Wins Above Replacement” (WAR) model, which compares the expected wins for a player’s team with or without his contributions. .... We computed WAR for each player drafted while they were with their drafting team, and summed these numbers for each team from the years 2012 to 2016
6. Minnesota is led by WR Stefon Diggs and S Harrison Smith, both of whom rank in the top 40 individually. Diggs has dropped just six of 146 catchable balls during his two-year career, none of them coming on throws at least 10 yards through the air from the line of scrimmage. Opposing quarterbacks have a passer rating of just 71.1 when throwing into Smith’s coverage during his career, and despite missing multiple games due to injury the last two seasons, he’s racked up at least nine QB pressures and 21 total stops in each of his past three campaigns. The league’s third highest paid cornerback in Xavier Rhodes rounds out the group.
So using WAR he does pretty well.....
Would be interesting to see what other NFL teams have in regards to late round picks starting? Pretty sure the normal career for 5th-7th round picks is pretty short. Like less than 3 years short.
I will pick the nit that if we have 5 #1 picks starting on D from the last few years, he must not have traded all the early picks away. Not to mention all the 1st rounders RS has wasted over the last few years (numerous busts according to some). That is a hell of a lot of first round picks.
Quote: @JimmyinSD said:
...
for perspective... what is the league average in finding starters in the later rounds? what is the bench mark Rick is being compared to?
also later round players may not develop into studs very often, but they do fill special teams rolls as well as being cheap back ups. we need to have cheap reserve players if we are going to be able to keep most of our quality young vets going onto their second contracts.
Here is a site of value:
https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20...t-by-round
Quote: @medaille said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
...
for perspective... what is the league average in finding starters in the later rounds? what is the bench mark Rick is being compared to?
also later round players may not develop into studs very often, but they do fill special teams rolls as well as being cheap back ups. we need to have cheap reserve players if we are going to be able to keep most of our quality young vets going onto their second contracts.
Here is a site of value:
https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20...t-by-round
saw that earlier...made my head hurt.
Quote: @JimmyinSD said:
@ medaille said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
...
for perspective... what is the league average in finding starters in the later rounds? what is the bench mark Rick is being compared to?
also later round players may not develop into studs very often, but they do fill special teams rolls as well as being cheap back ups. we need to have cheap reserve players if we are going to be able to keep most of our quality young vets going onto their second contracts.
Here is a site of value:
https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20...t-by-round
saw that earlier...made my head hurt.
If you average the results from that site across positions (Doesn't account for volume of what positions get picked low.)
The league average is 13.4% in the 5th, 10.4% in the 6th, and 4.5% in the 7th to get a player who's a starter for more than half his career.
the Vikings were at 15.4% in the 5th, 13.3% in the 6th and 0% in the 7th. I chose to include Guion as he met the criteria for the site above, but I assume Jor-El left him off, because he only started a couple of seasons for the vikings before moving to the Packers. Without him, our success drops to 7.7% in the 5th.
Quote: @medaille said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@ medaille said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
...
for perspective... what is the league average in finding starters in the later rounds? what is the bench mark Rick is being compared to?
also later round players may not develop into studs very often, but they do fill special teams rolls as well as being cheap back ups. we need to have cheap reserve players if we are going to be able to keep most of our quality young vets going onto their second contracts.
Here is a site of value:
https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20...t-by-round
saw that earlier...made my head hurt.
If you average the results from that site across positions (Doesn't account for volume of what positions get picked low.)
The league average is 13.4% in the 5th, 10.4% in the 6th, and 4.5% in the 7th to get a player who's a starter for more than half his career.
the Vikings were at 15.4% in the 5th, 13.3% in the 6th and 0% in the 7th. I chose to include Guion as he met the criteria for the site above, but I assume Jor-El left him off, because he only started a couple of seasons for the vikings before moving to the Packers. Without him, our success drops to 7.7% in the 5th.
so slightly above or right at average... nothing worth getting worked up over IMO. however wer really should be looking at what he averages in the earlier rounds (that he trades out of ) in order to get more later round picks. if he hits on 30% of his 4th rounders, but then trades his 4th for a 5th and 2 7ths, does he really come out ahead on the deal in terms of odds of finding a quality player. ( i dont like "starter" as being a bench mark) we have 53 players on the roster and only 25 will be what you would classify as a starter is you count the K,P and LS. so even though those other 28 players dont start they do contribute and that should count for something.
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