Who ever wins the election, will have an economy tailwind

[purplefaithful]

Did the Fed pull off a rare "soft landing?"
===========================================

Gross domestic product, which measures all the goods and services produced in the economy, expanded at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. That’s a slightly weaker pace than the second quarter’s 3% rate and above the 2.6% rate economists projected in a FactSet poll. GDP is adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation.

Wednesday’s report comes after earlier data showed the economy added a whopping 254,000 jobs in September, inflation is a whisper away from the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and consumer confidence jumped this month by the fastest clip since March 2021, according to The Conference Board — all signs of a robust economy.

Despite all that, consumer moods remain gloomier than in pre-pandemic times, according to surveys. One popular explanation for that paradox is simply that price levels are now much higher than what they were in 2019 before the pandemic. While the Fed’s aggressive action to slow that inflation has pulled down the pace of price increases since reaching a four-decade peak in 2022, the lingering trauma of high inflation remains.

Regardless, American shoppers continued to fuel economic growth in the third quarter with their spending, according to Wednesday’s GDP report. That marked by far the biggest contributor to growth in the third quarter. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic output. Spending accelerated sharply in the third quarter, driven by purchases of big-ticket items, while spending on services eased a bit.

Businesses continued to invest during the July-through-September period, though at a slightly softer pace than earlier in the year. Government spending at both the federal and state level also contributed to third-quarter growth.

The Fed slashed interest rates in September for the first time in more than four years, by a bold half point. It was a sign that Fed officials felt confident enough that inflation had come under control just enough to begin paring back rates to shift more attention to the job market. The Fed is tasked by Congress to stabilize prices and maximize employment through its interest rate policy.

The International Monetary Fund expects US GDP to expand at an annualized 2.5% rate in the fourth quarter, higher than the IMF’s July forecast. That would be the strongest among the Group of Seven major advanced economies.

[JimmyinSD]

Did the Fed pull off a rare "soft landing?"
===========================================

Gross domestic product, which measures all the goods and services produced in the economy, expanded at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. That’s a slightly weaker pace than the second quarter’s 3% rate and above the 2.6% rate economists projected in a FactSet poll. GDP is adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation.

Wednesday’s report comes after earlier data showed the economy added a whopping 254,000 jobs in September, inflation is a whisper away from the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and consumer confidence jumped this month by the fastest clip since March 2021, according to The Conference Board — all signs of a robust economy.

Despite all that, consumer moods remain gloomier than in pre-pandemic times, according to surveys. One popular explanation for that paradox is simply that price levels are now much higher than what they were in 2019 before the pandemic. While the Fed’s aggressive action to slow that inflation has pulled down the pace of price increases since reaching a four-decade peak in 2022, the lingering trauma of high inflation remains.

Regardless, American shoppers continued to fuel economic growth in the third quarter with their spending, according to Wednesday’s GDP report. That marked by far the biggest contributor to growth in the third quarter. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic output. Spending accelerated sharply in the third quarter, driven by purchases of big-ticket items, while spending on services eased a bit.

Businesses continued to invest during the July-through-September period, though at a slightly softer pace than earlier in the year. Government spending at both the federal and state level also contributed to third-quarter growth.

The Fed slashed interest rates in September for the first time in more than four years, by a bold half point. It was a sign that Fed officials felt confident enough that inflation had come under control just enough to begin paring back rates to shift more attention to the job market. The Fed is tasked by Congress to stabilize prices and maximize employment through its interest rate policy.

The International Monetary Fund expects US GDP to expand at an annualized 2.5% rate in the fourth quarter, higher than the IMF’s July forecast. That would be the strongest among the Group of Seven major advanced economies.

considering the numbers manipulation that has been tried, exposed, and tried again with about every analytic coming out of DC... how can anyone believe any of this? How many times can we fall for the same charade? Like when they talk about jobs lost vs jobs created when they dont differentiate between full and part time jobs, or the wages they pay adjusted for inflation, or the crime statistics that when you go review the reports you find out the new reports leave out certain major cities that would have painted the picture much differently. I think we are just starting to see things tighten up, we are not seeing the new construction starts that we were seeing and the private money is still largely on the sideline waiting for construction costs to come down. Farmers are getting tighter with their spending as well ( lower prices and higher inputs means less profits, less profits means less they will spend to avoid paying the taxes at year end) I think we are at least a year away from seeing how things are doing, and that really depends on how this election turns out. 4 more years of reckless spending and we will be in a much worse place than we were before they started jacking the interest rates IMO.

[badgervike]

Both the GDP number and Employment numbers are VERY likely overstated. The monthly/quarterly numbers have virtually all been adjusted down in the past year. July and August employment numbers both missed forecasts and June and July were adjusted down despite being disappointing in the first place. The US debt is dragging the economy down and will continue to until spending is under control. Two ways to fix that...supercharge the economy and increase tax revenues or significantly reduce costs. I guess we'll see how the election turns out. You could tell how the financial institutions feel about the Feds reduction in Prime...the long term interest rates (mortgages) actually crept up meaning they don't believe yet in any recovery.

[purplefaithful]

I dont expect a deficit reduction any time soon, regardless of who is in office.

[Zanary]

There won't be one.

We're basically being offered sequels of our last couple of 4-year prez terms, COVID notwithstanding. Both added to the deficit, though both had record-setting DOW periods, too.

What matters is how the "average Joes" fared, and either treason club had been decisively better, the polls wouldn't be within the margins of error.

[badgervike]

Just out today. US only added 12,000 jobs in October. Forecasted for 110,000. The worst part is if the last year has taught us anything, that 12,000 will be revised down.

[purplefaithful]

It was a weaker jobs report and it was expected to be weaker with the hurricanes and strikes.

Go one layer deeper; Govt and Health Care continued to add jobs but leisure and hospitality lost jobs.

I'm not saying all is rosy and fixed, prices are still too high and borrowing is too. But there are a # of indicators that are trending positive. I expect that to accelerate under a Trump or Harris administration.

[badgervike]

I dont expect a deficit reduction any time soon, regardless of who is in office.

At least their talking about it this time around both in terms of growing the economy and reducing spending.

[purplefaithful]

At least their talking about it this time around both in terms of growing the economy and reducing spending.

They are and time will tell what's just bluster and what's reality. I am not a D. Trump supporter, but I am supportive of that administration doing good things for the country as a whole.

[Waterboy]

It was a weaker jobs report and it was expected to be weaker with the hurricanes and strikes.

Go one layer deeper; Govt and Health Care continued to add jobs but leisure and hospitality lost jobs.

I'm not saying all is rosy and fixed, prices are still too high and borrowing is too. But there are a # of indicators that are trending positive. I expect that to accelerate under a Trump or Harris administration.

It will be far more like headwinds than tailwinds.