Can Sam Darnold be the next Rich Gannon?

[comet52]

I must add that an issue for Sam and young qb's in general now is how the league and specifically offense has evolved. When Gannon resurrected his career, run game and defense were much more integral. Today's NFL teams are basically overdrafting qb's and taking guys who 20 years ago would have gone in rounds 2,3,4 or later, in the first round. JJM could fit that bill in fact. Then they run them out often before they are ready and chuck them on the scrap heap just as fast. And the willingness of other teams to pay anything of value for these kids is telling - Justin Fields drafted 11th, goes for a 6th round pick for example.

As the league has evolved into pass pass and more pass teams want a superstar at qb who carries the team through thick and thin, the Mahomes, Allen, Burrow type guy. So they are basically gambling on rookies who in the past would never have been drafted that high, using them up while they're cheap, and if they don't hit then it's on to the next guy. Heck the Jets who took Darnold, then took Zach Wilson, and are now on the geriatric ARod plan.

The other option is you find a guy who's good but not great, like Trevor Lawrence, then you overpay him because the market is nuts and hope that despite him hoovering up your cap space you can somehow build a decent team around him and get lucky and win a SB. Meanwhile, most of the last 10 SB wins belong to Brady and Mahomes, guys who fit the qb-as-god dynamic that is driving all of this.

So it's not that I wish Sam Darnold would continue to suck but I see so many things stacked against him. He should not have been drafted as high as he was to begin with, but that's the game in the NFL today.

[Still Hurtn]

I would be happy with Gino Smith type numbers

[StickierBuns]

I would be happy with Gino Smith type numbers

Yep, agreed. Although Geno doesn't throw a lot of TDs: only 20 in 15 starts last year.

[MaroonBells]

Its an interesting story right now and I'm rooting for Darnold.....but my guess is they've been trying to 'fix' him for years in New York, Carolina and San Fran. I'm sure other QB gurus have taken a swing. It remains to be seen and the odds are against it, but it doesn't mean it can't happen. Its a talented offensive skill set team. Darnold seems to be taking the right approach, working hard and keeping his head down. This will be his last true opportunity to be a starting QB in the NFL, he'll be showcasing his skills for someone else or possibly if he goes way beyond expectations somehow, stay in Minnesota for a bit. Regardless, will the moment in the heat of battle be too much? We'll find out.

The 49ers don't really count. He went there as a backup and never got an opportunity to play. He started week 17, but that was a game in which the 49ers rested their starters. McCaffrey didn’t play. Kittle didn’t play. Trent Williams, Brandon Aiuk and Deebo Samuel played only a few series. 

But your point is well taken. Sure, he had crap weapons in both New York and Carolina, but for those teams to give up on him instead of trying to build around him says a lot. So yes, it's unlikely he'll have a Gannon-like turnaround.

There's little doubt he'll have his best season. But that's a different thing entirely. Again, low bar. But to suggest he'll be better than Cousins (as some are saying) is pretty silly IMO.

[Still Hurtn]

In 2022 Geno had 30 td and 4000 passing. Last year I think he was injuried and Seahawks defence got worse. Im hoping for the 2022 guy

[rf54]

Sam's issues are all from the neck up.  Doesn't handle pressure, doesn't process fast enough.  That last is generally not fixable short of a brain transplant which afaik, medical science has not developed yet. 

He's made enough plays over time, combined with the fool's gold of "being drafted high" to hang around into year 7, but come year 8 he'll be looking for team #5 on the woulda coulda shoulda Sam Darnold career tour.

yet all the QBsthat have turned their careers around do just that, get better from the neck up...

Many QBs have said over the years they wish they had their seasoned game on their rookie bodies...

This is the same reason JJ will have his red shirt year, he needs to learn the game...

Carolina was a JV team when Sam was the QB and the Jets were a joke.  I am not saying that I expect Sam to be Joe Montana, but I do expect him better than the three behind him on the depth chart and there is no reason that he can't be comparable to Kirk if he can avoid pressure and make a few plays with his legs.  I expect  top 15 season.

[RS_Express]

I expect him to be better than he was as a Jet, but after being a TO machine in college and a 5-year TO machine as a pro, I think Darnold is basically a luxury model Mullens: bigger arm, more mobile, and in the end will still do something stupid.

[MaroonBells]

I expect him to be better than he was as a Jet, but after being a TO machine in college and a 5-year TO machine as a pro, I think  Darnold is basically a luxury model Mullens: bigger arm, more mobile, and in the end will still do something stupid.

It's interesting to me that KOC spent the last two offseasons trying to coax more boldness out of his QB...to be less risk averse. I think to get the most out of elite receivers like Jefferson, Addison and Hockenson you have to give them opportunities, even a few that might seem ill-advised. 

So Darnold has never had that problem, with ball security being his millstone for years. I'd be curious to know where KOC sees Darnold on the risk aversion scale. 

I think you're right that Darnold is probably a higher-end Nick Mullens. Mullens could sure move the ball. Threw for over 400 yards against the Lions...but also threw 4 picks in that game. Maybe somewhere between Mullens and Cousins isn't such a terrible thing.

[comet52]

Ran across some stats on another board this morning... even worse than I realized and I already realize how bad Darnold is:

Since Darnold entered the league out of 38 QBs with 35+ starts he is:
Dead last in passer rating
Dead last in completion percentage
34th in TD%
36th lowest in int %
37th in YPA
34th in total game winning drives
34th in 4th quarter comebacks
37th in success %

Of any QB who has started a single game or more since 2018, only 11 QBs have a worse passer rating-- out of 81 QBs he is 70th.

[hogjowlsjohnny]

That's encouraging!