Major Juice

[medaille]

Is there any film of him out there rocketing the ball around or was it only at the combine velocity test?

[MaroonBells]

Is there any film of him out there rocketing the ball around or was it only at the combine velocity test?

I don't understand the question. There's plenty of film of JJ at both Michigan and OTAs. It sounds like you're skeptical that the velo test isn't an accurate gauge of a QB's arm strength? I don't think it's any different than a 40 time. Sure, some players play fast and some time fast, but still, it gives you a pretty good idea.

[StickierBuns]

Is there any film of him out there rocketing the ball around or was it only at the combine velocity test?

Sure. That's what the search function on Google is for or the multiple threads with his highlights in them on this board.

I personally wouldn't take 100% stock in the velocity test. Is it an indicator of arm strength? Yes. Does it mean JJM's arm is as strong as Joe Milton III? IMO, no. Reporters at OTAs have brought up JJM's arm strength and Addison just said yesterday at a presser that JJM 'throws a tight spiral....you have to be ready and make sure and catch it'. RPMs on a tight spiral always means arm strength. 

JJM does not have a Josh Allen arm. But its a plus arm for sure.

[Montana Tom]

Sure. That's what the search function on Google is for or the multiple threads with his highlights in them on this board.

I personally wouldn't take 100% stock in the velocity test. Is it an indicator of arm strength? Yes. Does it mean JJM's arm is as strong as Joe Milton III? IMO, no. Reporters at OTAs have brought up JJM's arm strength and Addison just said yesterday at a presser that JJM 'throws a tight spiral....you have to be ready and make sure and catch it'. RPMs on a tight spiral always means arm strength. 

JJM does not have a Josh Allen arm. But its a plus arm for sure.

Joe Milton has a cannon of an arm, but it's a loose cannon.  His accuracy is kinda like my spitballs...I might hit you, I might not.  I watched him in the Senior Bowl and he was scary inaccurate.  As in "no way, Jose".

[MaroonBells]

Joe Milton has a cannon of an arm, but it's a loose cannon.  His accuracy is kinda like my spitballs...I might hit you, I might not.  I watched him in the Senior Bowl and he was scary inaccurate.  As in "no way, Jose".

Saw that too. I wanted to like him--to add another QB to the mix. But he was just god awful. He was spiking 3 yard gimmes in the flat. He's got tools to work with, but he's going to need a half decade of work.

[StickierBuns]

Joe Milton has a cannon of an arm, but it's a loose cannon.  His accuracy is kinda like my spitballs...I might hit you, I might not.  I watched him in the Senior Bowl and he was scary inaccurate.  As in "no way, Jose".

I only mention Milton because his velocity was 62 and JJM's was 61. My point is I think their arm strength differences are greater than that. 

Milton will be trying out at TE within 2 years.

[Havoc]

“JJ McCarthy - 61 mph. JJ showed to have a huge arm, better than people probably realized. This is among the fastest ever recorded.

Bo Nix - 58 mph. Oddly, Nix didn’t take a drop or wind up. He just stood upright and armed it. Based on watching JJM and him throw together, he’s probably about 60 mph if he throws it with a wind up like the rest if them.

All three have very impressive ball velocities. There are a number of years where no player matched any of these. Average starters are probably around the 55 mph mark. Joe Milton’s was not a surprise. His arm strength has never been in question, just accuracy. JJM on the other hand, recorded a higher velocity than Pat Mahomes and Baker Mayfield’s 60 mph. The kid can seriously spin it and I have to wonder if he’ll get stronger yet. I had been curious about this as his tape isn’t as easy to decipher it. Nix matches the tape for the most part. He’s along the lines of a Cousins or Rodgers - excellent but not elite.

Ball velocity isn’t the be all end all, but there’s little doubt these guys can spin it with the top players in the league.”


I wrote the above after the combine. Arm strength is something I pay a lot of attention to after the Ponder boondoggle. What I have found is people in general, are exceptionally poor at judging speed/velocity. Perhaps the years in my youth running radar paid off - it’s easy for me. It’s how I can see a guy like Drake Maye does not have the arm people believe he does. He’s probably a 55-56 guy and might be one of the reasons he didn’t throw at the combine. 55-57 is just fine for the NFL, but it’s not what he was being sold as. 

It’s actually not that hard to figure out arm strength. First, don’t use the eye test. Odds are exceptionally low you can be accurate about the velocity. The combine gives us an actual radar gun measurement- which is hugely useful (and likely a reason some of these guys won’t throw), and we can watch tape for air yards travelled.

Is there a big difference between JJM and Joe Milton? Not at all. That’s your eyes playing tricks on you. Both guys giving their all throw a few yards apart to Milton’s favor. JJM is just below Milton and Allen with an arm that is still developing. I noticed a number of years ago when Blake Bortles came out, people perceive “big guys throw hard”. Uh no. That isn’t always the case. Like I said, not many people can estimate velocity well.

From this draft the strongest arms are:

1. Joe Milton
2. JJM
3. Bo Nix
3. Caleb Williams - these two are about the same. Nix is on tape with a throw a yard further it’s negligible.
4. Michael Penix
5. Drake Maye
6. Jayden Daniels

The last three are very close - all have very good arm strength.

As a whole, they have the most arm talent if any draft group I’ve ever seen.

Now for my JJM comp for arm strength and athleticism: Randall Cunningham
The upper level athleticism to go with a big time top 5 arm is there. A true prototypical dual threat QB.

[hogjowlsjohnny]

Nice to have some juice. Juice is useless without accuracy. Does he have accuracy?

[MaroonBells]

Nice to have some juice. Juice is useless without accuracy. Does he have accuracy?

When I first watched him, I thought his short and mid field accuracy was great, but that his deep accuracy could use some work. But I think accuracy is even more misleading than arm strength because it's dependent on so many other things. But I don't think JJM is an inherently inaccurate thrower along the lines of Locker, Trubisky, Allen, etc.

---

“JJ McCarthy - 61 mph. JJ showed to have a huge arm, better than people probably realized. This is among the fastest ever recorded.

Bo Nix - 58 mph. Oddly, Nix didn’t take a drop or wind up. He just stood upright and armed it. Based on watching JJM and him throw together, he’s probably about 60 mph if he throws it with a wind up like the rest if them.

All three have very impressive ball velocities. There are a number of years where no player matched any of these. Average starters are probably around the 55 mph mark. Joe Milton’s was not a surprise. His arm strength has never been in question, just accuracy. JJM on the other hand, recorded a higher velocity than Pat Mahomes and Baker Mayfield’s 60 mph. The kid can seriously spin it and I have to wonder if he’ll get stronger yet. I had been curious about this as his tape isn’t as easy to decipher it. Nix matches the tape for the most part. He’s along the lines of a Cousins or Rodgers - excellent but not elite.

Ball velocity isn’t the be all end all, but there’s little doubt these guys can spin it with the top players in the league.”


I wrote the above after the combine. Arm strength is something I pay a lot of attention to after the Ponder boondoggle. What I have found is people in general, are exceptionally poor at judging speed/velocity. Perhaps the years in my youth running radar paid off - it’s easy for me. It’s how I can see a guy like Drake Maye does not have the arm people believe he does. He’s probably a 55-56 guy and might be one of the reasons he didn’t throw at the combine. 55-57 is just fine for the NFL, but it’s not what he was being sold as. 

It’s actually not that hard to figure out arm strength. First, don’t use the eye test. Odds are exceptionally low you can be accurate about the velocity. The combine gives us an actual radar gun measurement- which is hugely useful (and likely a reason some of these guys won’t throw), and we can watch tape for air yards travelled.

Is there a big difference between JJM and Joe Milton? Not at all. That’s your eyes playing tricks on you. Both guys giving their all throw a few yards apart to Milton’s favor. JJM is just below Milton and Allen with an arm that is still developing. I noticed a number of years ago when Blake Bortles came out, people perceive “big guys throw hard”. Uh no. That isn’t always the case. Like I said, not many people can estimate velocity well.

From this draft the strongest arms are:

1. Joe Milton
2. JJM
3. Bo Nix
3. Caleb Williams - these two are about the same. Nix is on tape with a throw a yard further it’s negligible.
4. Michael Penix
5. Drake Maye
6. Jayden Daniels

The last three are very close - all have very good arm strength.

As a whole, they have the most arm talent if any draft group I’ve ever seen.

Now for my JJM comp for arm strength and athleticism: Randall Cunningham
The upper level athleticism to go with a big time top 5 arm is there. A true prototypical dual threat QB.

I don't think I'd agree that Nix would throw 60 if he had just taken a difference approach. But I agree about Maye's arm. I wrote about it in my breakdown of all six QBs before the draft. His arm is not as advertised. It's good, but not great. He looks like Justin Herbert, he's built like Justin Herbert, but he doesn't have Herbert's arm IMO.

[MAD GAINZ]

If you watch the QBs throwing at the combine, Nix's ball was a little wobbly coming out. He was overthrowing it. He has good arm strength, but it's not on the same level as McCarthy and Milton. Both of their throws were tight spirals that came out quick without them needing to sacrifice their mechanics to generate velocity.

And yes, Maye has good, not great arm strength. Same for Jayden Daniels who was touted by the media as having a big arm. He doesn't... his arm strength is pretty average, he just has a reputation for a big arm because he made some plays down field throwing to two first round picks at WR.

That said, all these guys we're talking about have sufficient arm strength to be successful QBs in the NFL. But JJ will be able to test tighter windows than some of these other QBs because of his arm.