8 days, what I think I know

[rf54]

1. the Vikings are tight lip when it comes to their plan in the '24 draft.   It has been harder to gleen information but we have to try and read the tea leaves.

2.  QB is the top target, we all know this, but their plans and back-up plans are closely guarded secrets.  I think Maye is the target but I just don't know if they can get to him.  I believe that McCarthy is the QB that could fall and I could see the Vikings reluctant to move up if he is left standing after the top 3 dust settles.  Meaning unwilling to add '25 first to get to top 5 pick.

3. JJ will NOT be traded and has never been on the trade block.  This is the dumbest crap that people with a podium or keyboards have tried to put out there as being in the realm of possibility.    

4. Day 2 will be one of the most boring draft days we as Viking fans will face,  I think the only way we see a day 2 pick would be if they failed to get their QB in a trade up and are looking to move back and get picks in the 2nd and 3rd.  I don't see this as happening, but there is always a chance.

5.  The Vikings have 7 picks scheduled on day 3 starting at 108.  I could see them trying to put some of those picks on the trade block to move up and get a guy they are targeting to fill a depth spot at OL, DL, WR, or CB.  

6.  The Vikings will be active with UDFAs again and expect to see them handing out some of the largest signing bonuses to add a UDFA or 2 that they covett.

So that's it for 2024.  alot of question marks and alot of sitting and waiting ahead of us as fans next week.  

[StickierBuns]

I think this a pretty accurate assessment....or at least it aligns with my own personal opinions. As you mention, just over a week away now and the conjecture will end.

[purplefaithful]

I always enjoy your no-nonsense football takes RF...

The only things I am certain about is:

the Vikings NEED to draft a QB
They have war-gamed their contingencies/potential scenarios and feel confidently prepared
If the Vikings want one of the top 4 qb's? They are going to have to find a way to trade-up. None will drop to 11.

[medaille]

The only thing I think I would add is that since we acquired 23, we know that trading up is strongly on the table and there is one or more QBs they feel is worth trading up for and they were preparing for the scenario that QB might become within reach. Without 23, I think trading up a ways gets pretty cringeworthy if you are trading 2024, 25 and 26 first round picks.

I think it feels pretty likely that we will have to trade up some amount to get one of the top 4 QBs. I wouldn’t stand pat at 11 and hope to get the 4th QB. We could stay at 11 and probably get the 5th or 6th QB prospects.

I also think that I feel confident that this team has done it’s due diligence. I feel like they’ve got a plan in place and that they are executing that plan. I feel it’s a given that we’re going to come away with a QB that a decent chunk of fans are really excited about. The only option I see for us not getting a QB, is if Kwesi’s accounting genes kick in and he just can’t take a QB at a reach, and then tries to get one later but they’re all gone. I don’t think that will happen, but I’m holding that as my worst case scenario just so I’m not massively disappointed.

The thing I would be most surprised by is skipping QB at 11 and then getting one at 23. For how QB focused this offseason is, I just can’t see leaving that much up to chance on who will be left.

[purplefaithful]

The only thing I think I would add is that since we acquired 23, we know that trading up is strongly on the table and there is one or more QBs they feel is worth trading up for and they were preparing for the scenario that QB might become within reach.  Without 23, I think trading up a ways gets pretty cringeworthy if you are trading 2024, 25 and 26 first round picks.

I think it feels pretty likely that we will have to trade up some amount to get one of the top 4 QBs.  I wouldn’t stand pat at 11 and hope to get the 4th QB.  We could stay at 11 and probably get the 5th or 6th QB prospects.

I also think that I feel confident that this team has done it’s due diligence.  I feel like they’ve got a plan in place and that they are executing that plan.  I feel it’s a given that we’re going to come away with a QB that a decent chunk of fans are really excited about.  The only option I see for us not getting a QB, is if Kwesi’s accounting genes kick in and he just can’t take a QB at a reach, and then tries to get one later but they’re all gone.  I don’t think that will happen, but I’m holding that as my worst case scenario just so I’m not massively disappointed.

The thing I would be most surprised by is skipping QB at 11 and then getting one at 23.  For how QB focused this offseason is, I just can’t see leaving that much up to chance on who will be left.

@MaroonBells called out a similar concern - KAM just wont flex off his calculus and it could cost us. 

That, getting sniped by another team and/or not finding any trade partners give me the most pause.

[Kentis]

   
Are you feeling lucky at 11…? Hell no, make the damn move Kwazy! 

[StickierBuns]

There actually is one thing I know for sure as well: KAM is in a no-win situation with fans. He either gives up 'too much' to move up for a QB and is a fool or he stays put and doesn't have the guile or guts to move up and take a big swing.

[MaroonBells]

There actually is one thing I know for sure as well: KAM is in a no-win situation with fans. He either gives up 'too much' to move up for a QB and is a fool or he stays put and doesn't have the guile or guts to move up and take a big swing.

Yep, this is one I completely agree with. You can see the narratives building as we speak.

[purplefaithful]

There actually is one thing I know for sure as well: KAM is in a no-win situation with fans. He either gives up 'too much' to move up for a QB and is a fool or he stays put and doesn't have the guile or guts to move up and take a big swing.

Truth...

1/2 will lose their shit if they move up 
1/2 this board (like me) will lose their shit if they dont find a way to move up from 11

[minny65]

It really depends on how everything falls. I really think they are after Maye but if he does go in those first 3, I would be OK if they sit and wait for QB at 11. I am also OK if they think the 4th QB is worth a move to 4 or 5 but those teams have to play, and I don't want to give up anything in 2025. This is coming from a fan who has for many years pounded the table for a carpe diem approach at QB. If you truly have the one guy identified as being the best, then you have to make the move at almost any cost.

Scenario: Maye is available at 3 and he is The Guy, plus NE is willing to play ball. I would be willing to give up 11, 23 and plus?
Scenario: Maye is gone at 3 but we have JJ as The guy I move up and grab him giving up 11,23. But if he is not The Guy, I am willing to wait.

The thing is not matter what QB we draft Kwesi/FO are going to say he was The Guy we wanted. But the rumor mill over time will reveal the truth.
I am going to support whatever the Viking experts have done their due diligence on, it is their livelihood after all