Quote: @TBro said:
You either sign him now, or let him walk in Free Agency. The Vikings aren't stupid enough to let all of his $28.5m dead cap hit go against this year's cap, and then try to sign him to a deal after that. You either get a deal done so you can spread that cap number over the next 2-3 years or move on.
Its possible to make the cap implications (with the dead money) similar in 2024/25. But its not ideal since you'd only be pushing money into the future to make that possible. E.G you just take the dead money now and move it to 2026 in a different way. But the catch-22 is if they want to re-sign Kirk and keep his cap hits lower they'll be doing some of that anyways. Ideal to get a deal done before the contract voids. But I guess there is some world where they could still work something out.
Quote: @kmillard said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
@ purplefaithful said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
@ StickyBun said:
@ MaroonBells said:
@ supafreak84 said:
Tannenbaum on ESPN this morning thinks Kirk will get a contract offer in the realm of 35 to 40 million a year, but won't be fully guaranteed due to age and injury. Thinks the Vikings have a line in the sand and will make him their best and final offer prior to the owners meetings so they know where they are prior to free agency. Thinks Atlanta is by far the best alternate fit and that if Cousons gets a fully guaranteed deal he should be inducted into the sports business Hall of Fame lol.
Jeff Darlington thinks Kirk is a goner and goes to Atlanta
I think the money will be roughly the same. The market is the market. So I'll say what I've been saying for two months: for Kirk it will come down to Atlanta (or whoever) for 3 years or the Vikings for 2.
I don't think there's a market for him beyond Minnesota and Atlanta in a real way and even if there were, I think these are the only 2 opportunities he would seriously consider. Its not like the Falcons have a shit team, they don't. Kirk's wife was born and raised in Atlanta and went to the University of Georgia in Athens, so this is a real choice if Atlanta is truly interested. But although I much prefer getting Cousins back in Minnesota, my line in the sand is no 3-year contract and the whole thing can't be guaranteed.
The combine will be pretty interesting to see how the market shapes up. Since there is no binary in/out it'll be interesting to see where the conversations start vs. where the Vikings line in the sand is. Would Pitt, NE, LV get involved somewhere in the middle if the reality is less than the initial ask? MNs offer is probably flexible in dollars but it'll be a single guaranteed year (2024) with partial guarantees in 2025.
Geoff, any perspectives (or reckless speculation) to share regarding how much the Vikings are prioritizing a rook QB this season?
How they may end up stacking their board?
I don't know how they're stacking the board, but I do know that they're very interested in finding a long-term QBOF and cost won't be a deterrent for them. But it has to be someone they love. I also don't think they planned to cutover to a rookie cold-turkey which is why the Kirk situation has been so intriguing. They'll let the Kirk situation play itself out, but if he walks I'd expect them to be incredibly aggressive in pursuing a QB in April.
I wonder if they will ever find someone they love. That is the big question.
And will the QB respect them 5 years later?
As of 2/23/24:
Kirk Cousins' Next Team Odds | Team | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | +325 | 23.5% | | Atlanta Falcons | +350 | 22.2% | | New England Patriots | +450 | 18.2% | | Minnesota Vikings | +650 | 13.3% | | Washington Commanders | +1000 | 9.1% | | Pittsburgh Steelers | +1400 | 6.7% | | Seattle Seahawks | +1500 | 6.3% | | Denver Broncos | +1800 | 5.3% | | The Field | +600 | 14.3% |
https://bookies.com/nfl/picks/kirk-cousins-next-team-odds
Saw a report today saying Cousins can expect a deal around $51 million annually. Listed a number of teams. I doubt the guy picked that number out of a hat. He’s probably heard from a team willing to go that high or near it, or they are hoping it will make it more likely he hits free agency so they get a shot at him.
Hate to say it, but the cap change changed the market. There simply aren’t enough decent starters and teams have cash to spend.
Quote: @Havoc1649 said:
Saw a report today saying Cousins can expect a deal around $51 million annually. Listed a number of teams. I doubt the guy picked that number out of a hat. He’s probably heard from a team willing to go that high or near it, or they are hoping it will make it more likely he hits free agency so they get a shot at him.
Hate to say it, but the cap change changed the market. There simply aren’t enough decent starters and teams have cash to spend.
That seems awfully high given age/injury.
But maybe things have flipped that quickly? The cap increase imo was massive.
Cost to keep DH has probably gone up too...
I am going to be one grouchy MF'er if we end-up losing both...And put some salt in the wound too if that happens; I gotta write a check for season tix by mos end.
Quote: @purplefaithful said:
As of 2/23/24:
Kirk Cousins' Next Team Odds| Team | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | +325 | 23.5% | | Atlanta Falcons | +350 | 22.2% | | New England Patriots | +450 | 18.2% | | Minnesota Vikings | +650 | 13.3% | | Washington Commanders | +1000 | 9.1% | | Pittsburgh Steelers | +1400 | 6.7% | | Seattle Seahawks | +1500 | 6.3% | | Denver Broncos | +1800 | 5.3% | | The Field | +600 | 14.3% |
https://bookies.com/nfl/picks/kirk-cousins-next-team-odds
This doesn't make any sense. I don't get the Raiders leading this. Kirk's a free agent, meaning he can sign with whomever he wants. I doubt the Raiders are one of those teams. And he sure as hell isn't going to sign with the Patriots, who have a terrible OL and no weapons. They are going to be historically bad in 24.
I still think it's a two-team race between the Falcons and Vikings.
Quote: @Havoc1649 said:
Saw a report today saying Cousins can expect a deal around $51 million annually. Listed a number of teams. I doubt the guy picked that number out of a hat. He’s probably heard from a team willing to go that high or near it, or they are hoping it will make it more likely he hits free agency so they get a shot at him.
Hate to say it, but the cap change changed the market. There simply aren’t enough decent starters and teams have cash to spend.
I've always felt it's going to be higher than most people think. And yes the market just went up 12%. Still, $51 seems high, unless it's a 1-year deal.
If I were to pull numbers out of my ass, I'd say AAV is $40M for 3 years, $44 for 2 years and maybe $48 for 1 year.
Quote: @purplefaithful said:
He says he's still a couple months away and you can see some short stepping in his drops, but I don't think there's any doubt he's going to be ready by training camp.
|
