Quote: @Bullazin said:
@ Havoc1649 said:
“If we cannot get Daniels, either sit at 11 and take an Edge, or trade back and see if Penix of JJ are available in the mid-20s. I'm not too sold on Nix. Average arm. He rarely reads more than one receiver. He should be further along considering his age. McCarthy is so young. He is a bit of an unknown because of the offense at Michigan - although it was more pro style than UW or Oregon. But he is a better athlete than Penix or Nix, has a better arm than Nix, and can actually read more than one receiver.”
Bo Nix runs the Oregon offense and has for the past two years. What looks like a one read play never is. Nix is probably the most mislabeled/misunderstood QB in this draft, and it’s because most of the “experts” don’t actually know what they are looking at.
I’ve spent the past few days dissecting the Ducks offense and what exactly Nix is doing. The reason why? Because a one read offense/QB is easy to defend against and Bo Nix is clearly not that. So what is actually happening?
Through interviews coaches have given and what I see on tape, Nix has full autonomy over their offense and has since day 1. What do I mean by autonomy? Basically he receives the formation that usually dictates run or pass and the routes. All the rest is on him.
So to map out an example: he’ll have a pass signal and the play formation. Any one of those players could be his “one read”. As he approaches the line and sees the defense, he gets an idea of what they are planning. There’s no way to know for sure every time, but he has a very good idea based on experience and film study. As for the rest of his players, they simply run their routes as designed unless he makes a change.
Once Nix gets an idea of what the defense is going to do, he may choose the guy he’s going to (“his one read”) or at least narrow his choices down to three total options based on what happens after the snap. At the snap, he’ll watch whichever defender he needs to see react, to know where to go. If the defender breaks on one guy, he goes to the other. Bang Bang. If both guys are not open, his final decision is the “check down” if it’s open. However, the “check down” is not the same as what many of us are used to. The check down could be the traditional RB out of the backfield, or it could be a myriad of other options running short slants etc. One of these guys can also become his “one read” after seeing the defense. If he knows he’ll have a guy running a slant in the middle and knows there will be a hole in the zone there, he’ll hit it immediately.
Once he makes all these pre-snap decisions/ the actual read is fast. Timing the guy, the ball is often out under 2 seconds - on time and with perfect ball placement for YAC. YAC is a byproduct of timing and ball placement and he does this freakishly well.
So you see, he isn’t a “one read” QB. The offense is actually complex and asks him to read all of it pre-snap. That’s also why it’s so difficult to defend against. Nix identifies the weakness in your coverage (every defensive formation/play has weaknesses) and carves you up.
I’m still working and will be for awhile, but Bo Nix may be further along than any college QB I’ve ever reviewed. His stats exemplify his command of the offense and his knowledge of what defenses are trying to do to him. This is also why he takes so few sacks as well. He’s always one step ahead.
Hopefully this makes some sense. I’m not the best at describing it, but it’s not the offense it appears to be on the surface.
Good stuff, question remains can he go through progression post snap, does he have a “feel”. for pressure? i only watched youtube but he bails out to the right alot, reminded me of a QB we took at 12 a few years back “shudder”
If we get burned we get burned. Add it to the list. But between Nix and Mccarthy give me the guy with more mobility, a bigger arm, and younger. I trust KO.
You could replace Nix with Mullens and the scouting report would be the same. Which scares me.
Quote: @dadevike said:
@ Havoc1649 said:
“If we cannot get Daniels, either sit at 11 and take an Edge, or trade back and see if Penix of JJ are available in the mid-20s. I'm not too sold on Nix. Average arm. He rarely reads more than one receiver. He should be further along considering his age. McCarthy is so young. He is a bit of an unknown because of the offense at Michigan - although it was more pro style than UW or Oregon. But he is a better athlete than Penix or Nix, has a better arm than Nix, and can actually read more than one receiver.”
Bo Nix runs the Oregon offense and has for the past two years. What looks like a one read play never is. Nix is probably the most mislabeled/misunderstood QB in this draft, and it’s because most of the “experts” don’t actually know what they are looking at.
I’ve spent the past few days dissecting the Ducks offense and what exactly Nix is doing. The reason why? Because a one read offense/QB is easy to defend against and Bo Nix is clearly not that. So what is actually happening?
Through interviews coaches have given and what I see on tape, Nix has full autonomy over their offense and has since day 1. What do I mean by autonomy? Basically he receives the formation that usually dictates run or pass and the routes. All the rest is on him.
So to map out an example: he’ll have a pass signal and the play formation. Any one of those players could be his “one read”. As he approaches the line and sees the defense, he gets an idea of what they are planning. There’s no way to know for sure every time, but he has a very good idea based on experience and film study. As for the rest of his players, they simply run their routes as designed unless he makes a change.
Once Nix gets an idea of what the defense is going to do, he may choose the guy he’s going to (“his one read”) or at least narrow his choices down to three total options based on what happens after the snap. At the snap, he’ll watch whichever defender he needs to see react, to know where to go. If the defender breaks on one guy, he goes to the other. Bang Bang. If both guys are not open, his final decision is the “check down” if it’s open. However, the “check down” is not the same as what many of us are used to. The check down could be the traditional RB out of the backfield, or it could be a myriad of other options running short slants etc. One of these guys can also become his “one read” after seeing the defense. If he knows he’ll have a guy running a slant in the middle and knows there will be a hole in the zone there, he’ll hit it immediately.
Once he makes all these pre-snap decisions/ the actual read is fast. Timing the guy, the ball is often out under 2 seconds - on time and with perfect ball placement for YAC. YAC is a byproduct of timing and ball placement and he does this freakishly well.
So you see, he isn’t a “one read” QB. The offense is actually complex and asks him to read all of it pre-snap. That’s also why it’s so difficult to defend against. Nix identifies the weakness in your coverage (every defensive formation/play has weaknesses) and carves you up.
I’m still working and will be for awhile, but Bo Nix may be further along than any college QB I’ve ever reviewed. His stats exemplify his command of the offense and his knowledge of what defenses are trying to do to him. This is also why he takes so few sacks as well. He’s always one step ahead.
Hopefully this makes some sense. I’m not the best at describing it, but it’s not the offense it appears to be on the surface.
You've got a fair point, Havoc. I do not know what the play call is or what Nix is doing pre-snap. But Oregon usually has much better personnel than their opponents so I do expect them to dominate. But I see too many times when Nix seems to go to his first read whether he is open or not. It's not that he never finds another receiver, but he usually seems committed by the time he takes the snap. Then you look at that play again and see an open receiver on the other side and Nix was under heavy pressure. Why make that throw? Or he hits his first read for 5 yards when another receiver is running open 25 yards down field. Again, why make that throw when the line is keeping him protected? He has been very productive at Oregon but, again, with their talent, isn't that to be expected?
This is more in line with my thinking. FWIW, I watched Nix over a handful of games and these were the notes I took:
Bo Nix - 6-2, 216, thickGreat , quick release and velocity, good anticipation, good touchVery good accuracy to all three levelsThrows well on the run
Very good runner, smart, good run instincts. Looks like a 4.6 guy. Not Jayden Daniels, but he’s a legit weapon as runner. See 80 yard run.
Most throws, like 80%, are quick outs, screens or swing passes under 10 yardsRarely moves past his 1st read. Great 1st read QB, but will occasionally miss open receivers on the back side.
Natural in interviews. Confident, a bit of gravitas
Floor is a more accurate Mitch Trubisky. Ceiling is Brock Purdy
Quote: @Bullazin said:
@ Havoc1649 said:
“If we cannot get Daniels, either sit at 11 and take an Edge, or trade back and see if Penix of JJ are available in the mid-20s. I'm not too sold on Nix. Average arm. He rarely reads more than one receiver. He should be further along considering his age. McCarthy is so young. He is a bit of an unknown because of the offense at Michigan - although it was more pro style than UW or Oregon. But he is a better athlete than Penix or Nix, has a better arm than Nix, and can actually read more than one receiver.”
Bo Nix runs the Oregon offense and has for the past two years. What looks like a one read play never is. Nix is probably the most mislabeled/misunderstood QB in this draft, and it’s because most of the “experts” don’t actually know what they are looking at.
I’ve spent the past few days dissecting the Ducks offense and what exactly Nix is doing. The reason why? Because a one read offense/QB is easy to defend against and Bo Nix is clearly not that. So what is actually happening?
Through interviews coaches have given and what I see on tape, Nix has full autonomy over their offense and has since day 1. What do I mean by autonomy? Basically he receives the formation that usually dictates run or pass and the routes. All the rest is on him.
So to map out an example: he’ll have a pass signal and the play formation. Any one of those players could be his “one read”. As he approaches the line and sees the defense, he gets an idea of what they are planning. There’s no way to know for sure every time, but he has a very good idea based on experience and film study. As for the rest of his players, they simply run their routes as designed unless he makes a change.
Once Nix gets an idea of what the defense is going to do, he may choose the guy he’s going to (“his one read”) or at least narrow his choices down to three total options based on what happens after the snap. At the snap, he’ll watch whichever defender he needs to see react, to know where to go. If the defender breaks on one guy, he goes to the other. Bang Bang. If both guys are not open, his final decision is the “check down” if it’s open. However, the “check down” is not the same as what many of us are used to. The check down could be the traditional RB out of the backfield, or it could be a myriad of other options running short slants etc. One of these guys can also become his “one read” after seeing the defense. If he knows he’ll have a guy running a slant in the middle and knows there will be a hole in the zone there, he’ll hit it immediately.
Once he makes all these pre-snap decisions/ the actual read is fast. Timing the guy, the ball is often out under 2 seconds - on time and with perfect ball placement for YAC. YAC is a byproduct of timing and ball placement and he does this freakishly well.
So you see, he isn’t a “one read” QB. The offense is actually complex and asks him to read all of it pre-snap. That’s also why it’s so difficult to defend against. Nix identifies the weakness in your coverage (every defensive formation/play has weaknesses) and carves you up.
I’m still working and will be for awhile, but Bo Nix may be further along than any college QB I’ve ever reviewed. His stats exemplify his command of the offense and his knowledge of what defenses are trying to do to him. This is also why he takes so few sacks as well. He’s always one step ahead.
Hopefully this makes some sense. I’m not the best at describing it, but it’s not the offense it appears to be on the surface.
Good stuff, question remains can he go through progression post snap, does he have a “feel”. for pressure? i only watched youtube but he bails out to the right alot, reminded me of a QB we took at 12 a few years back “shudder”
Ponder is a name we need to keep in mind. I think most thought he was a 2nd rounder overdrafted due to need. That could happen again.
Still, Ponder was well built, fairly accurate, had a solid arm and was a pretty good runner. His problem was that you could SEE the chaos in his head when pressured. And that's a hard projection to make. You don't see NFL-like pressure very often in college tape, so it's hard to know how they're going to respond to it.
Quote: @pattersaur said:
@ Bullazin said:
@ Havoc1649 said:
“If we cannot get Daniels, either sit at 11 and take an Edge, or trade back and see if Penix of JJ are available in the mid-20s. I'm not too sold on Nix. Average arm. He rarely reads more than one receiver. He should be further along considering his age. McCarthy is so young. He is a bit of an unknown because of the offense at Michigan - although it was more pro style than UW or Oregon. But he is a better athlete than Penix or Nix, has a better arm than Nix, and can actually read more than one receiver.”
Bo Nix runs the Oregon offense and has for the past two years. What looks like a one read play never is. Nix is probably the most mislabeled/misunderstood QB in this draft, and it’s because most of the “experts” don’t actually know what they are looking at.
I’ve spent the past few days dissecting the Ducks offense and what exactly Nix is doing. The reason why? Because a one read offense/QB is easy to defend against and Bo Nix is clearly not that. So what is actually happening?
Through interviews coaches have given and what I see on tape, Nix has full autonomy over their offense and has since day 1. What do I mean by autonomy? Basically he receives the formation that usually dictates run or pass and the routes. All the rest is on him.
So to map out an example: he’ll have a pass signal and the play formation. Any one of those players could be his “one read”. As he approaches the line and sees the defense, he gets an idea of what they are planning. There’s no way to know for sure every time, but he has a very good idea based on experience and film study. As for the rest of his players, they simply run their routes as designed unless he makes a change.
Once Nix gets an idea of what the defense is going to do, he may choose the guy he’s going to (“his one read”) or at least narrow his choices down to three total options based on what happens after the snap. At the snap, he’ll watch whichever defender he needs to see react, to know where to go. If the defender breaks on one guy, he goes to the other. Bang Bang. If both guys are not open, his final decision is the “check down” if it’s open. However, the “check down” is not the same as what many of us are used to. The check down could be the traditional RB out of the backfield, or it could be a myriad of other options running short slants etc. One of these guys can also become his “one read” after seeing the defense. If he knows he’ll have a guy running a slant in the middle and knows there will be a hole in the zone there, he’ll hit it immediately.
Once he makes all these pre-snap decisions/ the actual read is fast. Timing the guy, the ball is often out under 2 seconds - on time and with perfect ball placement for YAC. YAC is a byproduct of timing and ball placement and he does this freakishly well.
So you see, he isn’t a “one read” QB. The offense is actually complex and asks him to read all of it pre-snap. That’s also why it’s so difficult to defend against. Nix identifies the weakness in your coverage (every defensive formation/play has weaknesses) and carves you up.
I’m still working and will be for awhile, but Bo Nix may be further along than any college QB I’ve ever reviewed. His stats exemplify his command of the offense and his knowledge of what defenses are trying to do to him. This is also why he takes so few sacks as well. He’s always one step ahead.
Hopefully this makes some sense. I’m not the best at describing it, but it’s not the offense it appears to be on the surface.
Good stuff, question remains can he go through progression post snap, does he have a “feel”. for pressure? i only watched youtube but he bails out to the right alot, reminded me of a QB we took at 12 a few years back “shudder”
If we get burned we get burned. Add it to the list. But between Nix and Mccarthy give me the guy with more mobility, a bigger arm, and younger. I trust KO.
You could replace Nix with Mullens and the scouting report would be the same. Which scares me.
I don't see that. I have concerns about Nix, but I think he's more mobile, a far better runner, more accurate and has a much stronger arm than Mullens.
I feel like I want to respond to every QB post. And that's because Penix, Nix, and JJ all come with really significant questions.
Penix: older; injury concerns; not a very good athlete (injuries?); weird foot work and throwing motion (may be the same thing, so if you fix the feet he won't look so awkward); looked pedestrian and rattled vs. Michigan despite great receivers (who also had an off game); but a strong arm and great accuracy on deep throws; great competitor, does not take sacks; healthy the last 2 years.
Nix: older; he may be close-to-finished-product without much room left to develop; too many check downs or one-read-only plays; good but not great arm; but also very accurate; can make all (almost all?) throws; decisive; experienced and smart so not easily fooled; very good runner; maturity and seriousness - he is all business.
JJ: other than leading his team to a national championship, has not really done much (some sarcasm there); did what he was asked to do but unlike Penix and Nix, JJ never really carried his team; benefitted from a really good running game, O-line, and defense; but he is all about the team and genuinely shares all credit; so young with plenty of room for growth (absolutely necessary); ran a pro-style offense with play action and was asked to read more than Penix or Nix (though debatable); best athlete of the 3; excellent arm and accurate on the run; deep ball accuracy is not at the level of Penix or Nix but again, he is young.
So whom to select and do you take one at 11?
Quote: @dadevike said:
I feel like I want to respond to every QB post. And that's because Penix, Nix, and JJ all come with really significant questions.
Penix: older; injury concerns; not a very good athlete (injuries?); weird foot work and throwing motion (may be the same thing, so if you fix the feet he won't look so awkward); looked pedestrian and rattled vs. Michigan despite great receivers (who also had an off game); but a strong arm and great accuracy on deep throws; great competitor, does not take sacks; healthy the last 2 years.
Nix: older; he may be close-to-finished-product without much room left to develop; too many check downs or one-read-only plays; good but not great arm; but also very accurate; can make all (almost all?) throws; decisive; experienced and smart so not easily fooled; very good runner; maturity and seriousness - he is all business.
JJ: other than leading his team to a national championship, has not really done much (some sarcasm there); did what he was asked to do but unlike Penix and Nix, JJ never really carried his team; benefitted from a really good running game, O-line, and defense; but he is all about the team and genuinely shares all credit; so young with plenty of room for growth (absolutely necessary); ran a pro-style offense with play action and was asked to read more than Penix or Nix (though debatable); best athlete of the 3; excellent arm and accurate on the run; deep ball accuracy is not at the level of Penix or Nix but again, he is young.
So whom to select and do you take one at 11?
It's definitely McCarthy (as of now) and all the weighable categories tilt in his favor..
Not sure what it is about Nix, but I just get major Colt McCoy vibes on him. Like he could be a good backup in a pinch, but if you want him as your regular starter, you'll be disappointed.
1. McCarthy
2. Penix
3. Nix
Quote: @FLVike said:
If McCarthy, Penix, and Nix are there at 11 which one would you take?
for me that question is unanswerable at the moment. what did we do for a bridge QB, what did we do in FA to fix the IOL? If we resign Cousins, and have made big strides at the OL, then I take McCarthy, if we are looking at a scrub bridge QB and have addressed the OL, I think I take a chance with Penix and look to add somebody like Rattler in the later rounds. If they move on from Kirk, but dont do anything appreciable with the OL, then Nix likely is the pick for me.
also, a lot more will come out between now and then to really clarify this IMO. Currently I have them Penix, McCarthy, Nix, but really you could reach in a bag and pull out a name with these 3 and I dont know that you could argue against the pick.
Quote: @dadevike said:
I feel like I want to respond to every QB post. And that's because Penix, Nix, and JJ all come with really significant questions.
Penix: older; injury concerns; not a very good athlete (injuries?); weird foot work and throwing motion (may be the same thing, so if you fix the feet he won't look so awkward); looked pedestrian and rattled vs. Michigan despite great receivers (who also had an off game); but a strong arm and great accuracy on deep throws; great competitor, does not take sacks; healthy the last 2 years.
Nix: older; he may be close-to-finished-product without much room left to develop; too many check downs or one-read-only plays; good but not great arm; but also very accurate; can make all (almost all?) throws; decisive; experienced and smart so not easily fooled; very good runner; maturity and seriousness - he is all business.
JJ: other than leading his team to a national championship, has not really done much (some sarcasm there); did what he was asked to do but unlike Penix and Nix, JJ never really carried his team; benefitted from a really good running game, O-line, and defense; but he is all about the team and genuinely shares all credit; so young with plenty of room for growth (absolutely necessary); ran a pro-style offense with play action and was asked to read more than Penix or Nix (though debatable); best athlete of the 3; excellent arm and accurate on the run; deep ball accuracy is not at the level of Penix or Nix but again, he is young.
So whom to select and do you take one at 11?
It comes down to value, right? You're not going to take any of them if they're widely considered by NFL scouts to be 2nd round values. And right now those three are all over the map.
The thing that always perks up my ears are the media scouts who have connections to actual NFL scouts. So mostly Bob McGinn, Daniel Jeremiah, Lance Zeirlein, Matt Miller and Dane Brugler. We haven't seen much of anything yet from DJ, Zierlein or McGinn. However, Miller has been quoted as saying "NFL scouts continue to tell me that McCarthy will be drafted earlier than expected." Miller has him 7th in his latest mock. Brugler also has him as a middle 1st round pick--and actually had him well above Jayden Daniels on a November big board.
And I thought this was interesting from Zierlein: "Why is Maye annointed QB2 by so many people? It's very curious for me based on just watching the last two years. I see the talent but man were there issues this year. Seems like draft media has convinced people 1 and 2 are locked in. I'm not sure if that is the case."
Rumor season is here: a little buzz that Minnesota might be moving away from signing Cousins and instead trying to trade up to #3.
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