Draft: If it's not a QB..?

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@mgobluevikes said:

@supafreak84 said:

@dadevike said:

@supafreak84 said:
IMO (as of now), best case scenario for the Vikings in this draft is McCarthy dropping to our pick at #11 and sitting him behind Cousins for a year or two. Anything after that is gravy. 

If McCarthy is not there at 11, I would be shocked. Note: I have been shocked before. But 11 seems too high for JJ, whom I like. While there is a lot to like with JJ, he is something of a long shot. He has never been the focus of the offense at UM. But he did have to get them out of third and long on a regular basis and he did it without any stud receivers. To me he seems like a guy that you trade back 10-15 spots and if he is there you pull the trigger, and if he is gone, you move on to Plan B, C, D or whatever he represents for us. We're not in a good spot to draft the top QBs and too many teams ahead of us have a dire need at QB. But those are the hard facts.

It's going to be interesting to see how the process plays out for JJ, but most reliable draft sites have him as the 4th ranked QB in this class. I think his age/upside is going to play into his favor as well as the fact he's a better runner and athlete than Penix and Nix. Take this for what it's worth but Walterfootball had this recent update on JJ;

 J.J. McCarthy*, QB, Michigan
Height: 6-3. Weight: 203.
Projected 40 Time: 4.70.
Projected Round (2024): 1-2.
1/16/24: In 2023, McCarthy completed 72 percent of his passes for 2,991 yards, 22 touchdowns and four interceptions. He notched three rushing touchdowns as well. Pro team sources have said McCarthy has a strong arm, throws well outside the numbers, and is a good athlete. However, they question his vision, as well as his passing instincts. McCarthy can be late throwing down the middle and misses vertically. Those sources shared they feel McCarthy’s decision-making can be careless and reckless. Some sources have compared McCarthy to Daniels Jones, while others have said Will Levis.

I don't get the comparisons to Levis or Jones. In Michigan's run heavy scheme, McCarthy's comp % was considerably better than either of them while his TD to Int ratio was also much better. I also think McCarthy is going to be faster than a 4.7. The kid can motor, but not shifty, and at 205 lbs. running upright, he better learn how to slide.

I don't either. Its a stupid comparison. McCarthy was a 5 star QB coming out of high school and he's very athletic.....I agree that he'll probably run a 4.55 or 4.6. He does take a click longer to process, but he's also very young. He's got the frame for another 5-8 lbs of muscle. He's not slight however. Penix looks like a good wind would break a wrist. 

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@mgobluevikes said:

@supafreak84 said:

@dadevike said:

@supafreak84 said:
IMO (as of now), best case scenario for the Vikings in this draft is McCarthy dropping to our pick at #11 and sitting him behind Cousins for a year or two. Anything after that is gravy. 

If McCarthy is not there at 11, I would be shocked. Note: I have been shocked before. But 11 seems too high for JJ, whom I like. While there is a lot to like with JJ, he is something of a long shot. He has never been the focus of the offense at UM. But he did have to get them out of third and long on a regular basis and he did it without any stud receivers. To me he seems like a guy that you trade back 10-15 spots and if he is there you pull the trigger, and if he is gone, you move on to Plan B, C, D or whatever he represents for us. We're not in a good spot to draft the top QBs and too many teams ahead of us have a dire need at QB. But those are the hard facts.

It's going to be interesting to see how the process plays out for JJ, but most reliable draft sites have him as the 4th ranked QB in this class. I think his age/upside is going to play into his favor as well as the fact he's a better runner and athlete than Penix and Nix. Take this for what it's worth but Walterfootball had this recent update on JJ;

 J.J. McCarthy*, QB, Michigan
Height: 6-3. Weight: 203.
Projected 40 Time: 4.70.
Projected Round (2024): 1-2.
1/16/24: In 2023, McCarthy completed 72 percent of his passes for 2,991 yards, 22 touchdowns and four interceptions. He notched three rushing touchdowns as well. Pro team sources have said McCarthy has a strong arm, throws well outside the numbers, and is a good athlete. However, they question his vision, as well as his passing instincts. McCarthy can be late throwing down the middle and misses vertically. Those sources shared they feel McCarthy’s decision-making can be careless and reckless. Some sources have compared McCarthy to Daniels Jones, while others have said Will Levis.

I don't get the comparisons to Levis or Jones. In Michigan's run heavy scheme, McCarthy's comp % was considerably better than either of them while his TD to Int ratio was also much better. I also think McCarthy is going to be faster than a 4.7. The kid can motor, but not shifty, and at 205 lbs. running upright, he better learn how to slide.

What were your thoughts on his cast of pass catchers? That to me seemed down also, which would effect his numbers. 

To me though, he's started a ton of football games, has won a ton of football games, has great upside at his age, and is a better athlete than Penix and Nix. 

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@FLVike said:
If McCarthy, Penix, and Nix are there at 11 which one would you take?

McCarthy

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@FLVike said:
If McCarthy, Penix, and Nix are there at 11 which one would you take?

If Penix didn't have the injury history and the slight frame.....but he does. I think McCarthy is the rawest of the 3 for sure, but highest potential (there's that dreaded word again). I really like Nix's intangibles. He's got a gunslinger mentality. But I worry he might be an INT machine. 

Listen, I'll get behind whomever they select. I'll find the positives. Because its such a crapshoot, I don't get locked into anyone. 

[Guest]

@supafreak84 said:

@mgobluevikes said:

@supafreak84 said:

@dadevike said:

@supafreak84 said:
IMO (as of now), best case scenario for the Vikings in this draft is McCarthy dropping to our pick at #11 and sitting him behind Cousins for a year or two. Anything after that is gravy. 

If McCarthy is not there at 11, I would be shocked. Note: I have been shocked before. But 11 seems too high for JJ, whom I like. While there is a lot to like with JJ, he is something of a long shot. He has never been the focus of the offense at UM. But he did have to get them out of third and long on a regular basis and he did it without any stud receivers. To me he seems like a guy that you trade back 10-15 spots and if he is there you pull the trigger, and if he is gone, you move on to Plan B, C, D or whatever he represents for us. We're not in a good spot to draft the top QBs and too many teams ahead of us have a dire need at QB. But those are the hard facts.

It's going to be interesting to see how the process plays out for JJ, but most reliable draft sites have him as the 4th ranked QB in this class. I think his age/upside is going to play into his favor as well as the fact he's a better runner and athlete than Penix and Nix. Take this for what it's worth but Walterfootball had this recent update on JJ;

 J.J. McCarthy*, QB, Michigan
Height: 6-3. Weight: 203.
Projected 40 Time: 4.70.
Projected Round (2024): 1-2.
1/16/24: In 2023, McCarthy completed 72 percent of his passes for 2,991 yards, 22 touchdowns and four interceptions. He notched three rushing touchdowns as well. Pro team sources have said McCarthy has a strong arm, throws well outside the numbers, and is a good athlete. However, they question his vision, as well as his passing instincts. McCarthy can be late throwing down the middle and misses vertically. Those sources shared they feel McCarthy’s decision-making can be careless and reckless. Some sources have compared McCarthy to Daniels Jones, while others have said Will Levis.

I don't get the comparisons to Levis or Jones. In Michigan's run heavy scheme, McCarthy's comp % was considerably better than either of them while his TD to Int ratio was also much better. I also think McCarthy is going to be faster than a 4.7. The kid can motor, but not shifty, and at 205 lbs. running upright, he better learn how to slide.

What were your thoughts on his cast of pass catchers? That to me seemed down also, which would effect his numbers. 

To me though, he's started a ton of football games, has won a ton of football games, has great upside at his age, and is a better athlete than Penix and Nix. 

McCarthy is so tough to judge because of what you mention. He's had a pretty good cast of TE's, although Erik All was injured a lot before leaving for Iowa. He probably had his biggest success throwing to his very young but talented Colston Loveland and Indiana transfer AJ Barner. His WR corps, were always under achieving, and or just not utilized in the Harbaugh system enough to get a great game in, game out rhythm. It also didn't seem like Michigan's WR's were the type to win 1 on 1 contested balls the way that great WR's in the NFL do.

Early in the year Michigan did throw a little more against inferior teams, and McCarthy had some games when he had a 18 for19 comp. % and a couple TD's in super tight windows, and there was no doubt he was on a different level. He got hurt more than people knew in the Minnesota game. From there out the game plans got a lot more conservative. His throwing mechanics also kind of reverted back to last year's level where his misses were generally high, and every throw seemed to have pace instead of putting a bit of air underneath it for WR or RB to be able to adjust to it. 

How much of that was the injury vs. just not getting enough game reps. vs. talent around him is anyones guess, but I've seen the arm talent and decision making to "think" that he could be very good if given the right coaching, the right protection (O-line), and weapons. Again, he's only 20 yrs. old so I think there's a lot to work with.

I know next to nothing about Nix so can't compare them, I think Penix throws a more catchable ball right now, but I question his upside and physical longevity. I'd go with McCarthy.

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@Kentis said:
Well Bradbury had zero pressures early on in large part because he played 7 snaps, reinjured his bad back, sat out the rest of that game & then missed the next 3 games. I gave up zero pressures in those games too…!  B)  

Can't give up a pressure if you're on the bench, right? LOL. No, the benchmark was 100 snaps minimum thru mid-year and Bradbury had played in five games, playing especially well against Chris Jones and the Chiefs. But get this, as soon as Cousins went down, Bradbury proceeded to give up 21 pressures over the next 9 games. This, the fact that he has zero dead cap in 2024 and his recurring back injury, makes me believe there is a chance he won't be back. 

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@MaroonBells said:

@Kentis said:
Well Bradbury had zero pressures early on in large part because he played 7 snaps, reinjured his bad back, sat out the rest of that game & then missed the next 3 games. I gave up zero pressures in those games too…!  B)  

Can't give up a pressure if you're on the bench, right? LOL. No, the benchmark was 100 snaps minimum thru mid-year and Bradbury had played in five games, playing especially well against Chris Jones and the Chiefs. But get this, as soon as Cousins went down, Bradbury proceeded to give up 21 pressures over the next 9 games. This, and the fact that he apparently has zero dead cap ikin 2024, makes me believe there is a chance he won't be back. 

[Guest]

@mgobluevikes said:

@supafreak84 said:

@dadevike said:

@supafreak84 said:
IMO (as of now), best case scenario for the Vikings in this draft is McCarthy dropping to our pick at #11 and sitting him behind Cousins for a year or two. Anything after that is gravy. 

If McCarthy is not there at 11, I would be shocked. Note: I have been shocked before. But 11 seems too high for JJ, whom I like. While there is a lot to like with JJ, he is something of a long shot. He has never been the focus of the offense at UM. But he did have to get them out of third and long on a regular basis and he did it without any stud receivers. To me he seems like a guy that you trade back 10-15 spots and if he is there you pull the trigger, and if he is gone, you move on to Plan B, C, D or whatever he represents for us. We're not in a good spot to draft the top QBs and too many teams ahead of us have a dire need at QB. But those are the hard facts.

It's going to be interesting to see how the process plays out for JJ, but most reliable draft sites have him as the 4th ranked QB in this class. I think his age/upside is going to play into his favor as well as the fact he's a better runner and athlete than Penix and Nix. Take this for what it's worth but Walterfootball had this recent update on JJ;

 J.J. McCarthy*, QB, Michigan
Height: 6-3. Weight: 203.
Projected 40 Time: 4.70.
Projected Round (2024): 1-2.
1/16/24: In 2023, McCarthy completed 72 percent of his passes for 2,991 yards, 22 touchdowns and four interceptions. He notched three rushing touchdowns as well. Pro team sources have said McCarthy has a strong arm, throws well outside the numbers, and is a good athlete. However, they question his vision, as well as his passing instincts. McCarthy can be late throwing down the middle and misses vertically. Those sources shared they feel McCarthy’s decision-making can be careless and reckless. Some sources have compared McCarthy to Daniels Jones, while others have said Will Levis.

I don't get the comparisons to Levis or Jones. In Michigan's run heavy scheme, McCarthy's comp % was considerably better than either of them while his TD to Int ratio was also much better. I also think McCarthy is going to be faster than a 4.7. The kid can motor, but not shifty, and at 205 lbs. running upright, he better learn how to slide.

Wow, I don't either. In what world is McCarthy even remotely like either Levis or Jones? For me, his floor is less douchey Zach Wilson. His ceiling is much more mobile, less deep-accurate Kirk Cousins.

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@StickyBun said:

@FLVike said:
If McCarthy, Penix, and Nix are there at 11 which one would you take?

If Penix didn't have the injury history and the slight frame.....but he does. I think McCarthy is the rawest of the 3 for sure, but highest potential (there's that dreaded word again). I really like Nix's intangibles. He's got a gunslinger mentality. But I worry he might be an INT machine. 

Listen, I'll get behind whomever they select. I'll find the positives. Because its such a crapshoot, I don't get locked into anyone. 

After Teddy I find myself really gunshy on a guy with a slight frame who already has significant injury history. 

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@Havoc1649 said:

“If we cannot get Daniels, either sit at 11 and take an Edge, or trade back and see if Penix of JJ are available in the mid-20s. I'm not too sold on Nix. Average arm. He rarely reads more than one receiver. He should be further along considering his age. McCarthy is so young. He is a bit of an unknown because of the offense at Michigan - although it was more pro style than UW or Oregon. But he is a better athlete than Penix or Nix, has a better arm than Nix, and can actually read more than one receiver.”

Bo Nix runs the Oregon offense and has for the past two years. What looks like a one read play never is. Nix is probably the most mislabeled/misunderstood QB in this draft, and it’s because most of the “experts” don’t actually know what they are looking at.

I’ve spent the past few days dissecting the Ducks offense and what exactly Nix is doing. The reason why? Because a one read offense/QB is easy to defend against and Bo Nix is clearly not that. So what is actually happening? 
Through interviews coaches have given and what I see on tape, Nix has full autonomy over their offense and has since day 1. What do I mean by autonomy? Basically he receives the formation that usually dictates run or pass and the routes. All the rest is on him. 
So to map out an example: he’ll have a pass signal and the play formation. Any one of those players could be his “one read”. As he approaches the line and sees the defense, he gets an idea of what they are planning. There’s no way to know for sure every time, but he has a very good idea based on experience and film study. As for the rest of his players, they simply run their routes as designed unless he makes a change. 
Once Nix gets an idea of what the defense is going to do, he may choose the guy he’s going to (“his one read”) or at least narrow his choices down to three total options based on what happens after the snap. At the snap, he’ll watch whichever defender he needs to see react, to know where to go. If the defender breaks on one guy, he goes to the other. Bang Bang. If both guys are not open, his final decision is the “check down” if it’s open. However, the “check down” is not the same as what many of us are used to. The check down could be the traditional RB out of the backfield, or it could be a myriad of other options running short slants etc. One of these guys can also become his “one read” after seeing the defense. If he knows he’ll have a guy running a slant in the middle and knows there will be a hole in the zone there, he’ll hit it immediately. 
Once he makes all these pre-snap decisions/ the actual read is fast. Timing the guy, the ball is often out under 2 seconds - on time and with perfect ball placement for YAC. YAC is a byproduct of timing and ball placement and he does this freakishly well. 
So you see, he isn’t a “one read” QB. The offense is actually complex and asks him to read all of it pre-snap. That’s also why it’s so difficult to defend against. Nix identifies the weakness in your coverage (every defensive formation/play has weaknesses) and carves you up. 
I’m still working and will be for awhile, but Bo Nix may be further along than any college QB I’ve ever reviewed. His stats exemplify his command of the offense and his knowledge of what defenses are trying to do to him. This is also why he takes so few sacks as well. He’s always one step ahead.  

Hopefully this makes some sense. I’m not the best at describing it, but it’s not the offense it appears to be on the surface.

Good stuff, question remains can he go through progression post snap, does he have a “feel”. for pressure?   i only watched youtube but he bails out to the right alot, reminded me of a QB we took at 12 a few years back “shudder”