Quote:
“If we cannot get Daniels, either sit at 11 and take an Edge, or trade back and see if Penix of JJ are available in the mid-20s. I'm not too sold on Nix. Average arm. He rarely reads more than one receiver. He should be further along considering his age. McCarthy is so young. He is a bit of an unknown because of the offense at Michigan - although it was more pro style than UW or Oregon. But he is a better athlete than Penix or Nix, has a better arm than Nix, and can actually read more than one receiver.”
Bo Nix runs the Oregon offense and has for the past two years. What looks like a one read play never is. Nix is probably the most mislabeled/misunderstood QB in this draft, and it’s because most of the “experts” don’t actually know what they are looking at.
I’ve spent the past few days dissecting the Ducks offense and what exactly Nix is doing. The reason why? Because a one read offense/QB is easy to defend against and Bo Nix is clearly not that. So what is actually happening?
Through interviews coaches have given and what I see on tape, Nix has full autonomy over their offense and has since day 1. What do I mean by autonomy? Basically he receives the formation that usually dictates run or pass and the routes. All the rest is on him.
So to map out an example: he’ll have a pass signal and the play formation. Any one of those players could be his “one read”. As he approaches the line and sees the defense, he gets an idea of what they are planning. There’s no way to know for sure every time, but he has a very good idea based on experience and film study. As for the rest of his players, they simply run their routes as designed unless he makes a change.
Once Nix gets an idea of what the defense is going to do, he may choose the guy he’s going to (“his one read”) or at least narrow his choices down to three total options based on what happens after the snap. At the snap, he’ll watch whichever defender he needs to see react, to know where to go. If the defender breaks on one guy, he goes to the other. Bang Bang. If both guys are not open, his final decision is the “check down” if it’s open. However, the “check down” is not the same as what many of us are used to. The check down could be the traditional RB out of the backfield, or it could be a myriad of other options running short slants etc. One of these guys can also become his “one read” after seeing the defense. If he knows he’ll have a guy running a slant in the middle and knows there will be a hole in the zone there, he’ll hit it immediately.
Once he makes all these pre-snap decisions/ the actual read is fast. Timing the guy, the ball is often out under 2 seconds - on time and with perfect ball placement for YAC. YAC is a byproduct of timing and ball placement and he does this freakishly well.
So you see, he isn’t a “one read” QB. The offense is actually complex and asks him to read all of it pre-snap. That’s also why it’s so difficult to defend against. Nix identifies the weakness in your coverage (every defensive formation/play has weaknesses) and carves you up.
I’m still working and will be for awhile, but Bo Nix may be further along than any college QB I’ve ever reviewed. His stats exemplify his command of the offense and his knowledge of what defenses are trying to do to him. This is also why he takes so few sacks as well. He’s always one step ahead.
Hopefully this makes some sense. I’m not the best at describing it, but it’s not the offense it appears to be on the surface.
Quote: @Havoc1649 said:
“If we cannot get Daniels, either sit at 11 and take an Edge, or trade back and see if Penix of JJ are available in the mid-20s. I'm not too sold on Nix. Average arm. He rarely reads more than one receiver. He should be further along considering his age. McCarthy is so young. He is a bit of an unknown because of the offense at Michigan - although it was more pro style than UW or Oregon. But he is a better athlete than Penix or Nix, has a better arm than Nix, and can actually read more than one receiver.”
Bo Nix runs the Oregon offense and has for the past two years. What looks like a one read play never is. Nix is probably the most mislabeled/misunderstood QB in this draft, and it’s because most of the “experts” don’t actually know what they are looking at.
I’ve spent the past few days dissecting the Ducks offense and what exactly Nix is doing. The reason why? Because a one read offense/QB is easy to defend against and Bo Nix is clearly not that. So what is actually happening?
Through interviews coaches have given and what I see on tape, Nix has full autonomy over their offense and has since day 1. What do I mean by autonomy? Basically he receives the formation that usually dictates run or pass and the routes. All the rest is on him.
So to map out an example: he’ll have a pass signal and the play formation. Any one of those players could be his “one read”. As he approaches the line and sees the defense, he gets an idea of what they are planning. There’s no way to know for sure every time, but he has a very good idea based on experience and film study. As for the rest of his players, they simply run their routes as designed unless he makes a change.
Once Nix gets an idea of what the defense is going to do, he may choose the guy he’s going to (“his one read”) or at least narrow his choices down to three total options based on what happens after the snap. At the snap, he’ll watch whichever defender he needs to see react, to know where to go. If the defender breaks on one guy, he goes to the other. Bang Bang. If both guys are not open, his final decision is the “check down” if it’s open. However, the “check down” is not the same as what many of us are used to. The check down could be the traditional RB out of the backfield, or it could be a myriad of other options running short slants etc. One of these guys can also become his “one read” after seeing the defense. If he knows he’ll have a guy running a slant in the middle and knows there will be a hole in the zone there, he’ll hit it immediately.
Once he makes all these pre-snap decisions/ the actual read is fast. Timing the guy, the ball is often out under 2 seconds - on time and with perfect ball placement for YAC. YAC is a byproduct of timing and ball placement and he does this freakishly well.
So you see, he isn’t a “one read” QB. The offense is actually complex and asks him to read all of it pre-snap. That’s also why it’s so difficult to defend against. Nix identifies the weakness in your coverage (every defensive formation/play has weaknesses) and carves you up.
I’m still working and will be for awhile, but Bo Nix may be further along than any college QB I’ve ever reviewed. His stats exemplify his command of the offense and his knowledge of what defenses are trying to do to him. This is also why he takes so few sacks as well. He’s always one step ahead.
SCOUTING REPORT: WEAKNESSES
-While Nix has shown growth, inconsistencies still exist. His footwork can become jittery under pressure, resulting in erratic throws not attributed to arm talent limitations.-His reliance on sideline cues before snaps raises questions about his ability to helm a complex NFL offense independently.-The transition from Auburn to Oregon brought marked improvement, but teams may be cautious about determining which facets of his game can be successfully transitioned to the NFL.Nix needs to refine his game processing. He can telegraph primary reads, and his hesitancy during receiver breaks can lead to missed opportunities. This also extends to deep routes, where despite having the arm strength, he often hesitates.-Improvisation under pressure introduces risk. Nix's tendency to force plays or make impulsive throws increases the chance for turnovers. His in-pocket presence, especially in collapsing situations, can be erratic, leading to rushed decisions.-His perception of oncoming pressure is inconsistent, impacting pocket discipline. A more reliable sense of incoming threats is crucial for his professional growth.
He's also going to be 24 years old at the end of February.
Quote: @MaroonBells said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@ MaroonBells said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@ MaroonBells said:
@ mgobluevikes said:
If it's edge I'd look at Jared Verse or Chop Robinson. I'm kind of disappointed in the DT crop as far as what we need (a true NT). Some like Newton out of IL as a 3 Tech., but he seems a bit short and slow.
WR is probably too high considering we already have JJ and Addison as a #2.
Do we need a true NT? I'll grant you most 3-4 defenses have a big plugger in the middle, but the Vikings finished tied for 5th against the run. And in his first draft with the Vikings, Flores didn't draft one, selecting instead Jaquelin Roy who was more of a pass rusher. Plus, I think the team is much higher on our current nose, Harrison Phillips, than the fans are.
There's still hope for Roy too, considering he was an upside pick, having started only one season at LSU, so I'm not overly concerned he didn't have much impact as a rookie.
Anyway, Johnny Newton can really get after the QB, and he's a pretty good run stopper as well. You can get 2-down NT's later in the draft. Right now, the consensus best NT, T'vondre Sweat, who goes 6-4, 362, is holding pretty consistently around the 40-60 range and the Vikings own the 42nd pick.
speaking of NTs... did anybody else see what Vita Vea did to Kelsy on monday night? I only watched a little of the game, but damn did he have JK on roller skates, it was like watching Bradbury in an eagles uniform. Its no wonder after a game like that Kelsy is talking retirement.
Kelce is 36 years old. All centers struggle with Vea. Still, I'd bet Kelce has won his fair share of those matchups over the years.
Kelce has been rumored to be retiring for the several years, he has a date with Canton, and yes he has shown that undersized OL can play in the game, just wish we could have found one.
Yeah, I wish Bradbury were better too. After playing so much better last season, I was hoping that his improvement would continue but it didn't. Still, like I said before, when Cousins went down, Bradbury was the only offensive linemen in the NFL to not allow a single pressure. He fell apart after that.
I really have to question some of those stats that get put out there, who says who allowed a pressure and who didnt? If Bradbury steps aside and lets a guy come unblocked through his gap, does that pressure or sack not go to him? I have seen to many times where a free runner comes right up the chute when Bradbury steps left or right and doesnt even touch a delayed blitz. Either way, I am hoping that they bring in some real size and strength for the position, down field blocking is great, but they have to be able to control the LOS first and foremost.
Quote: @supafreak84 said:
IMO (as of now), best case scenario for the Vikings in this draft is McCarthy dropping to our pick at #11 and sitting him behind Cousins for a year or two. Anything after that is gravy.
If McCarthy is not there at 11, I would be shocked. Note: I have been shocked before. But 11 seems too high for JJ, whom I like. While there is a lot to like with JJ, he is something of a long shot. He has never been the focus of the offense at UM. But he did have to get them out of third and long on a regular basis and he did it without any stud receivers. To me he seems like a guy that you trade back 10-15 spots and if he is there you pull the trigger, and if he is gone, you move on to Plan B, C, D or whatever he represents for us. We're not in a good spot to draft the top QBs and too many teams ahead of us have a dire need at QB. But those are the hard facts.
Well Bradbury had zero pressures early on in large part because he played 7 snaps, reinjured his bad back, sat out the rest of that game & then missed the next 3 games. I gave up zero pressures in those games too…!  B)
Quote: @MaroonBells said:
I might be a little higher on Nix than you, but this is spot on. As a 1st read QB he's awesome. Here's what I wrote in my notes about him: Most throws, like 80%, are quick outs, screens or swing passes under 10 yards. Rarely moves past his 1st read. Great 1st read QB, but misses open receivers on the back side. The check down seems almost habitual.
Interesting take on Rattler. I haven't watched him yet (outside of Saturdays), but now I'm intrigued.
I think we are saying the exact same things re Nix. And it is not that I dislike him, but I would like him a lot more if he were a couple of years younger (he will be 24 next month). He has a reasonably high floor but I think his potential is limited. JJ has a lower floor than Nix, but he is not even 22 yet. His potential is ... who knows? But he has a great attitude and make-up, really good athleticism, strong arm, and accuracy on the move. But he has never really been asked to carry a team. That is called a game manager. Whether he can do more and actually be the reason an NFL team wins big games is unknown. I think Nix would almost always be the lesser QB in a playoff game. I could be wrong on Nix, but that's what I see in him, and he is a far more finished product than JJ.
Quote: @Havoc1649 said:
“If we cannot get Daniels, either sit at 11 and take an Edge, or trade back and see if Penix of JJ are available in the mid-20s. I'm not too sold on Nix. Average arm. He rarely reads more than one receiver. He should be further along considering his age. McCarthy is so young. He is a bit of an unknown because of the offense at Michigan - although it was more pro style than UW or Oregon. But he is a better athlete than Penix or Nix, has a better arm than Nix, and can actually read more than one receiver.”
Bo Nix runs the Oregon offense and has for the past two years. What looks like a one read play never is. Nix is probably the most mislabeled/misunderstood QB in this draft, and it’s because most of the “experts” don’t actually know what they are looking at.
I’ve spent the past few days dissecting the Ducks offense and what exactly Nix is doing. The reason why? Because a one read offense/QB is easy to defend against and Bo Nix is clearly not that. So what is actually happening?
Through interviews coaches have given and what I see on tape, Nix has full autonomy over their offense and has since day 1. What do I mean by autonomy? Basically he receives the formation that usually dictates run or pass and the routes. All the rest is on him.
So to map out an example: he’ll have a pass signal and the play formation. Any one of those players could be his “one read”. As he approaches the line and sees the defense, he gets an idea of what they are planning. There’s no way to know for sure every time, but he has a very good idea based on experience and film study. As for the rest of his players, they simply run their routes as designed unless he makes a change.
Once Nix gets an idea of what the defense is going to do, he may choose the guy he’s going to (“his one read”) or at least narrow his choices down to three total options based on what happens after the snap. At the snap, he’ll watch whichever defender he needs to see react, to know where to go. If the defender breaks on one guy, he goes to the other. Bang Bang. If both guys are not open, his final decision is the “check down” if it’s open. However, the “check down” is not the same as what many of us are used to. The check down could be the traditional RB out of the backfield, or it could be a myriad of other options running short slants etc. One of these guys can also become his “one read” after seeing the defense. If he knows he’ll have a guy running a slant in the middle and knows there will be a hole in the zone there, he’ll hit it immediately.
Once he makes all these pre-snap decisions/ the actual read is fast. Timing the guy, the ball is often out under 2 seconds - on time and with perfect ball placement for YAC. YAC is a byproduct of timing and ball placement and he does this freakishly well.
So you see, he isn’t a “one read” QB. The offense is actually complex and asks him to read all of it pre-snap. That’s also why it’s so difficult to defend against. Nix identifies the weakness in your coverage (every defensive formation/play has weaknesses) and carves you up.
I’m still working and will be for awhile, but Bo Nix may be further along than any college QB I’ve ever reviewed. His stats exemplify his command of the offense and his knowledge of what defenses are trying to do to him. This is also why he takes so few sacks as well. He’s always one step ahead.
Hopefully this makes some sense. I’m not the best at describing it, but it’s not the offense it appears to be on the surface.
You've got a fair point, Havoc. I do not know what the play call is or what Nix is doing pre-snap. But Oregon usually has much better personnel than their opponents so I do expect them to dominate. But I see too many times when Nix seems to go to his first read whether he is open or not. It's not that he never finds another receiver, but he usually seems committed by the time he takes the snap. Then you look at that play again and see an open receiver on the other side and Nix was under heavy pressure. Why make that throw? Or he hits his first read for 5 yards when another receiver is running open 25 yards down field. Again, why make that throw when the line is keeping him protected? He has been very productive at Oregon but, again, with their talent, isn't that to be expected?
Quote: @dadevike said:
@ supafreak84 said:
IMO (as of now), best case scenario for the Vikings in this draft is McCarthy dropping to our pick at #11 and sitting him behind Cousins for a year or two. Anything after that is gravy.
If McCarthy is not there at 11, I would be shocked. Note: I have been shocked before. But 11 seems too high for JJ, whom I like. While there is a lot to like with JJ, he is something of a long shot. He has never been the focus of the offense at UM. But he did have to get them out of third and long on a regular basis and he did it without any stud receivers. To me he seems like a guy that you trade back 10-15 spots and if he is there you pull the trigger, and if he is gone, you move on to Plan B, C, D or whatever he represents for us. We're not in a good spot to draft the top QBs and too many teams ahead of us have a dire need at QB. But those are the hard facts.
It's going to be interesting to see how the process plays out for JJ, but most reliable draft sites have him as the 4th ranked QB in this class. I think his age/upside is going to play into his favor as well as the fact he's a better runner and athlete than Penix and Nix. Take this for what it's worth but Walterfootball had this recent update on JJ;
![[Image: Michigan_logo.gif]](https://walterfootball.com/college/Michigan_logo.gif) J.J. McCarthy*, QB, Michigan
Height: 6-3. Weight: 203.
Projected 40 Time: 4.70.
Projected Round (2024): 1-2.
1/16/24: In 2023, McCarthy completed 72 percent of his passes for 2,991 yards, 22 touchdowns and four interceptions. He notched three rushing touchdowns as well. Pro team sources have said McCarthy has a strong arm, throws well outside the numbers, and is a good athlete. However, they question his vision, as well as his passing instincts. McCarthy can be late throwing down the middle and misses vertically. Those sources shared they feel McCarthy’s decision-making can be careless and reckless. Some sources have compared McCarthy to Daniels Jones, while others have said Will Levis.
If McCarthy, Penix, and Nix are there at 11 which one would you take?
Quote: @supafreak84 said:
@ dadevike said:
@ supafreak84 said:
IMO (as of now), best case scenario for the Vikings in this draft is McCarthy dropping to our pick at #11 and sitting him behind Cousins for a year or two. Anything after that is gravy.
If McCarthy is not there at 11, I would be shocked. Note: I have been shocked before. But 11 seems too high for JJ, whom I like. While there is a lot to like with JJ, he is something of a long shot. He has never been the focus of the offense at UM. But he did have to get them out of third and long on a regular basis and he did it without any stud receivers. To me he seems like a guy that you trade back 10-15 spots and if he is there you pull the trigger, and if he is gone, you move on to Plan B, C, D or whatever he represents for us. We're not in a good spot to draft the top QBs and too many teams ahead of us have a dire need at QB. But those are the hard facts.
It's going to be interesting to see how the process plays out for JJ, but most reliable draft sites have him as the 4th ranked QB in this class. I think his age/upside is going to play into his favor as well as the fact he's a better runner and athlete than Penix and Nix. Take this for what it's worth but Walterfootball had this recent update on JJ;
J.J. McCarthy*, QB, Michigan
Height: 6-3. Weight: 203.
Projected 40 Time: 4.70.
Projected Round (2024): 1-2.
1/16/24: In 2023, McCarthy completed 72 percent of his passes for 2,991 yards, 22 touchdowns and four interceptions. He notched three rushing touchdowns as well. Pro team sources have said McCarthy has a strong arm, throws well outside the numbers, and is a good athlete. However, they question his vision, as well as his passing instincts. McCarthy can be late throwing down the middle and misses vertically. Those sources shared they feel McCarthy’s decision-making can be careless and reckless. Some sources have compared McCarthy to Daniels Jones, while others have said Will Levis.
I don't get the comparisons to Levis or Jones. In Michigan's run heavy scheme, McCarthy's comp % was considerably better than either of them while his TD to Int ratio was also much better. I also think McCarthy is going to be faster than a 4.7. The kid can motor, but not shifty, and at 205 lbs. running upright, he better learn how to slide.
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