I’m not sold on Purdy either. He played well when he had the chance, but we all know how NFL defenses tend to figure out young guys once they have some tape.
The issue with Lance is no different than when he was coming out and really hasn’t changed at this point. Limited overall experience prior to the NFL and limited reps since coming in. The guy only threw 318 passes throughout college and that wasn’t at a top level program against top flight competition. On top of that, he has to overcome the injury bug and mentally dealing with that. He’s lost a ton of time both in college and the NFL. Right now he’s coming off of a 2nd ankle surgery.
Lance would be best served on a team with a proven veteran and given time to heal up and get his head right. He should never have been a top draft pick and the 9ers took a monster chance on a guy with very limited experience.
The Vikings would be an ideal place for him, but he’d have to be signed to the roster as I see him grabbed off the PS. That brings into play losing their most recent drafted QB if he is moved to PS.
If I were the 49ers, I wouldn’t cut him. I’d let him work through it with more time.
Quote: @kmillard said:
Dorian Thompson-Robinson has looked very good in two straight games for the browns. 5th round pick.
There was some pre-draft rumors that we were high on him, was hoping we were going to take a shot on him after we passed on others, Browns took him one spot before us in the 5th, although we could have taken him 6 spots ahead of them at end of the 4th.
Quote: @MaroonBells said:
@ StickyBun said:
@ Knucklehead said:
The best situation for him is to start over w/ another team. The expectations of not just being a first round pick, but the #3 overall pick & the draft pick haul that SF traded to draft him has put him in a less than optimal situation to develop.
I have nothing against Brock Purdy, seems like a nice kid and such, but....FU to the 49ers for getting lucky with him and not paying the price for trading the farm to get Lance and setting back the franchise years.
We can only hope that Purdy was a flash in the pan. If a roster that strong can snag its QBOTF with a nearly worthless 7th round pick, you can only roll your eyes.
But for those who think they were smarter than everyone else, keep in mind they had three 6th rounders, none of which they used on Purdy, so he was clearly not a must-have target for them.
Trust me. Purdy is NOT a flash in the pan. Not by a long shot. I watched him play college ball at ISU and I am here to tell you he is the real deal. No he is not a Mahomes, Allen, or Burrough, but he is definitely next level below and can most certainly compete at a very high level with the right team and coaching around him. The NFL is NOT littered with former Iowa State Cyclones although there are a few, and Purdy beat the likes of Oregon, Oklahoma, Texas, TCU, and played Clemson to a 20-13 loss. He definitely elevated the players around him. Has more arm talent than given credit for too.
Quote: @pattersaur said:
@ Zanary said:
@ AGRforever said:
@ Knucklehead said:
The best situation for him is to start over w/ another team. The expectations of not just being a first round pick, but the #3 overall pick & the draft pick haul that SF traded to draft him has put him in a less than optimal situation to develop.
Thats my main fear of drafting a QB. We're going to spend a fortune trading up and there's only a small chance that the guy we pick ends up decent.
THIS.
I know that there's some legitimacy to the "strike while your new QB is cheap" formula, but people forget just how rare real franchise QBs are...and how many first-round picks have been complete washouts. With us, Ponder is the example, though he was also part of the Frazier era and that helped no one...but yeah, for every Peyton Manning or Patrick Mahomes, you're gonna have a dozen (or more) Leafs and Manziels.
2022- Pickett (20)
2021- Lawrence (1), Wilson (2), Lance (3), Fields (11), M. Jones (15)
2020- Burrow (1), Tagavailoa (5), Herbert (6), Love (26)
2019- Murray (1), D. Jones (6), Allen (7)
2018- Mayfield (1), Darnold (3), Jackson (32)
2017- Trubisky (2), Mahomes (10), Watson (12)
2016- Goff (1), Wentz (2), Lynch (26)
Looking at the past 7 years of first round QBs (not including 2023), I see 7 stone cold busts to date, 6 QBs any team in the league would want, and 9 averageish starters if you assume Love will fall into this group. So the bust rate is 32%.
To me 68% is much better than a “small chance” that one ends up decent. Plus you have almost as good of odds at finding THE guy as you do at drafting a bust.
The Vikings need a plan post-Kirk and I really hope that plan doesn’t involve the Colts model of wasting seasons with old vets like Rivers, Ryan, Wentz… and even they finally wisened up and drafted Richardson this year.
Yes it’s scary but without going through every single FRP of the past 7 years, my gut says the bust rate on QBs is probably about the same as it is for any other position. It just gets more attention because, QB.
Just looking at the Vikings FRPs since 2016, we have 3 busts (Treadwell, Hughes, Gladney), 2 home runs (JJ, Darrisaw), and 2 average players (Bradbury, Cine [I’m feeling generous]).
I think people are only looking at the odds of a player becoming
that elite franchise guy everyone wants.
I think that people totally miss the possibility of getting that
mid-tier starting caliber guy but for a fraction of the price as your
journeyman mid-tier starting caliber guy.
I think there’s room for a strategy, where you just don’t pay that
mid-tier journeyman QB price and instead just keep drafting young guys and hitting
at a high enough rate that your short term isn’t fucked while you try and get
that elite guy and then you get that $30-$40M extra every year to spend. That said, I think Cousins is good enough
that he makes that decision much harder and the math is a little fuzzier on
whether you would rather have Cousins or 2 extra stud FA linemen and a rookie
contract guy.
Quote: @medaille said:
@ pattersaur said:
@ Zanary said:
@ AGRforever said:
@ Knucklehead said:
The best situation for him is to start over w/ another team. The expectations of not just being a first round pick, but the #3 overall pick & the draft pick haul that SF traded to draft him has put him in a less than optimal situation to develop.
Thats my main fear of drafting a QB. We're going to spend a fortune trading up and there's only a small chance that the guy we pick ends up decent.
THIS.
I know that there's some legitimacy to the "strike while your new QB is cheap" formula, but people forget just how rare real franchise QBs are...and how many first-round picks have been complete washouts. With us, Ponder is the example, though he was also part of the Frazier era and that helped no one...but yeah, for every Peyton Manning or Patrick Mahomes, you're gonna have a dozen (or more) Leafs and Manziels.
2022- Pickett (20)
2021- Lawrence (1), Wilson (2), Lance (3), Fields (11), M. Jones (15)
2020- Burrow (1), Tagavailoa (5), Herbert (6), Love (26)
2019- Murray (1), D. Jones (6), Allen (7)
2018- Mayfield (1), Darnold (3), Jackson (32)
2017- Trubisky (2), Mahomes (10), Watson (12)
2016- Goff (1), Wentz (2), Lynch (26)
Looking at the past 7 years of first round QBs (not including 2023), I see 7 stone cold busts to date, 6 QBs any team in the league would want, and 9 averageish starters if you assume Love will fall into this group. So the bust rate is 32%.
To me 68% is much better than a “small chance” that one ends up decent. Plus you have almost as good of odds at finding THE guy as you do at drafting a bust.
The Vikings need a plan post-Kirk and I really hope that plan doesn’t involve the Colts model of wasting seasons with old vets like Rivers, Ryan, Wentz… and even they finally wisened up and drafted Richardson this year.
Yes it’s scary but without going through every single FRP of the past 7 years, my gut says the bust rate on QBs is probably about the same as it is for any other position. It just gets more attention because, QB.
Just looking at the Vikings FRPs since 2016, we have 3 busts (Treadwell, Hughes, Gladney), 2 home runs (JJ, Darrisaw), and 2 average players (Bradbury, Cine [I’m feeling generous]).
I think people are only looking at the odds of a player becoming
that elite franchise guy everyone wants.
I think that people totally miss the possibility of getting that
mid-tier starting caliber guy but for a fraction of the price as your
journeyman mid-tier starting caliber guy.
I think there’s room for a strategy, where you just don’t pay that
mid-tier journeyman QB price and instead just keep drafting young guys and hitting
at a high enough rate that your short term isn’t fucked while you try and get
that elite guy and then you get that $30-$40M extra every year to spend. That said, I think Cousins is good enough
that he makes that decision much harder and the math is a little fuzzier on
whether you would rather have Cousins or 2 extra stud FA linemen and a rookie
contract guy.
Yep. One other thing to note is of the averageish QBs and of course of the studs, all of them other than Love were Day 1 starters or started very early on. So you really are talking about getting 4-5 years of cheap QB play, unless they’re a total bust and you decide to move on. Young, Stroud, and Richardson are all looking like Day 1s this year as well.
Love is an outlier and it’ll be very interesting to see how he does this season. In most cases teams are tossing these kids into the deep end right away.
Quote: @purplefaithful said:
Best thing for Lance at this point would be to come back home, get out of the media spotlight, spend a year working with KC/KOC/Staff and get re-grounded.
What in Lance's resume says he is a pro caliber QB.
I believe Lance will fade in to obscurity.
Quote: @minny65 said:
For some reason I watched the 49'ers/Raiders preseason game. 4th round pick Aiden O'Connell (Purdue) vs Trey Lance. Aiden was in command like a veteran from the very first snap and was 14-18 with 2 or 3 drop passes by his receivers. Lance did not see the field and was under pressure and sacked because he did not go through progressions and would try to run. Lance did the same in college which is why I ranked him last of the top QB's that draft.
Back to O'Connell, I don't remember a rookie QB who played that well along with second and third string players. Impressive 4th round pick. Just one preseason game but he showed he can play in the NFL. Quick decisions, accurate and went to second and third reads.
He definitely showed flashes of that last year against the Gophers after he came back from his rib injury. He has some serious arm talent.
Real talk on NFL Radio today wondering if Lance might be cut. If that were to happen, I can't see the 49ers going into the season with Purdy coming off injury, and Sam Darnold. That would have to make a move and what that might be is anybodys guess.. but they need to win now. I know it won't happen, but Cousins really would be the ideal QB for them and their situation
Quote: @JR44 said:
@ kmillard said:
Dorian Thompson-Robinson has looked very good in two straight games for the browns. 5th round pick.
There was some pre-draft rumors that we were high on him, was hoping we were going to take a shot on him after we passed on others, Browns took him one spot before us in the 5th, although we could have taken him 6 spots ahead of them at end of the 4th.
Yeah I thought the same. Who knows what he will become but I have watched the replays of the two browns games and he looked very comfortable in both contests, bigger arm than I thought as well.
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