04-21-2023, 08:16 PM
I hope to get back and post a mock on draft day but wanted to take a stab at a potential scenario. Although I do think there is a more real chance the Vikings sacrifice their sheer # of picks this year to move up for a QB I played the alternative outcome of moving back since its every so slightly more likely. While drafting at #23 remains possible I've gathered the sense they will move up or down to target a player they love or back to accumulate picks to better position their needs to player values.
1(23): TRADE. Aforementioned but the Vikings move down in this scenario with the Steelers at 2(32). If the board falls right and the Steelers pick at #17 MN may end up being a good trade partner since they can let a potential OT target slide through and come back up 5 selections later. The Vikings also give-up 5(158) but pickup 3(80) to make the move backwards worthwhile.
2(32): TRADE...again! Now we are talking about a real Vikings draft day. Kicking off night two the Vikings hold a pick with more inherent value than most. Its a strategy that appealed to them last year, why not do it again? In this case they move back to 2(40) with NO moving up for a WR. The Vikings end up moving 2(32) for 2(40), 4(115), and 5(165).
2(40) via NO: DJ Turner (CB - Michigan): After moving back the Vikings position themselves to either select a falling WR or CB. Turner is not often talked about but is one of the better CBs in this year's class. Although small he mirrors well and can play a physical brand of football both inside and outside. Positional flexibility in the secondary is huge to the FO and coaching staff with Turner hitting all athletic thresholds. He should be a day one started in the nickel which will allow they to play Murphy as a chess piece based on matchup. E.G he can shadow receivers in and out of the slot. Its a nice luxury. Aside from Turner and Murphy the Vikings expect both Booth & Evans to contribute at the other outside CB spot.
3(69) via LAR: Jonathan Mingo (WR - Ole Miss): Now the Vikings move up to fill their need at WR with Mingo. While I'm not sure who they would choose amongst a group of Mingo, Mims and Dell I do think they can add a day 1 piece to the offense in this general area. Over the spring I've heard the Vikings prefer a WR 2 who wins underneath and can run away from the defense. This eliminates many of the field stretchers but schematically this actually is a nice wrinkle. If you have a WR2 that can consistently win in that fashion you really need to pick your position if they continue to stack Hockenson and Jefferson. Either bracket Jefferson with a LB and CB instead of a safety or leave the WR 2 1x1 or bracketed with a LB who can no longer plug the run game. The Vikings give 3(80) via PIT and 4(119) for this pick and 6(191).
3(87): Yaya Diaby (DE - Louisville): While I didn't project any player trades in this mock I feel its 50/50 if Za'Darius Smith is on the 2023 roster. Diaby is a bit of a different player but someone who can move up and down the D-line with the quickness and physicality to win in multiple ways. While he needs to continue developing a more consistent pass rushing repertoire, teams are going to love the schematic versatility and toolkit. In my mind we're talking about at worst a rotational pass rusher with the potential to become a regular contributor which is a value when talking about a premium position in the 3rd.
4(115): via NO: Noah Sewell (LB - Oregon): Brian Asamoah is penciled in to start next to Jordan Hicks but that just isn't the long-term solution at the position. How the Vikings approach ILB will be fascinating. Will they prioritize a bigger ILB similar to Sewell to offset Asamoah's lack of mass or go full modern NFL and play two quick undersized LBs? Its a dilemma if they choose to target a LB earlier since you're basically comparing Trenton Simpson to Drew Sanders. They like Sanders FYI. But in Sewell they get a prototypical ILB that has the attributes of what the Patriots/Flores have loved historically. Although he lacks some range he can consume blocs and excels as a pass rusher. He arguably has enough of a skillset to compete with Hicks already. The one caveat is that Flores did trend away from larger LBs with the Dolphins which makes it hard to put on thumb on their physical preferences.
5(165): via NO: Dorian Thompson-Robison (QB - UCLA): The Vikings are heavily invested in this QB class and although the narrative has been they take a shot in the middle rounds, I would not be shocked to see them move into the top 10 for the right QB (likely Stroud or Richardson). We will see. If not, taking a stab with a late round pick in Thompson Robinson is a riskless throw at the dartboard. DTR has a really impressive athletic profile which allows you to really stress the defense with designed runs and roll-outs. He passes well enough to keep the defense honest. There are some long-term questions on accuracy and the ability to read an NFL defense outside of Chip Kelly's offense. But he has enough intriguing tools to take a chance. Off the field there are concerns on maturity which is why he may drop vs. his consensus rankings. But at this point it makes too much sense.
6(191): via LAR: Evan Hull (RB - Northwestern): Its a matter or days until Dalvin Cook is likely no longer a Vikings. Once the backfield is turned over the Mattison & Chandler they will need a bit more depth. Hull is an underrated prospect who may not be a RB1 in the NFL but has the profile to be a swiss-army knife #2 who can play in the league for many years. He can run between the tackles but also excels in the passing game. For a 6th round pick he is one of the safer choices if you're looking for prospect that would likely make the roster and provide some long-term value. In time he arguably could develop into a starting level back similar to Mattison. A strong contributor for a team who wants to focus on passing the ball.
6(211): Andrew Vorhees (OG - USC): Who knows if Vorhees will fall this far come draft weekend, but teams always shy away from immediate contributors. Vorhees likely will need a season to rehab after suffering an injury at the combine but I could see the Vikings viewing this as surplus value. Prior to the injury he was likely a 3rd round pick who had the potential to start at LG in year one. With Ezra Cleveland entering a contract and Ed Ingram still proving his long-term fit along the line I could see Vorhees as a nice long-term hedge. They don't need him now but come next year he very well may have a spot available to him in the starting 5.
1(23): TRADE. Aforementioned but the Vikings move down in this scenario with the Steelers at 2(32). If the board falls right and the Steelers pick at #17 MN may end up being a good trade partner since they can let a potential OT target slide through and come back up 5 selections later. The Vikings also give-up 5(158) but pickup 3(80) to make the move backwards worthwhile.
2(32): TRADE...again! Now we are talking about a real Vikings draft day. Kicking off night two the Vikings hold a pick with more inherent value than most. Its a strategy that appealed to them last year, why not do it again? In this case they move back to 2(40) with NO moving up for a WR. The Vikings end up moving 2(32) for 2(40), 4(115), and 5(165).
2(40) via NO: DJ Turner (CB - Michigan): After moving back the Vikings position themselves to either select a falling WR or CB. Turner is not often talked about but is one of the better CBs in this year's class. Although small he mirrors well and can play a physical brand of football both inside and outside. Positional flexibility in the secondary is huge to the FO and coaching staff with Turner hitting all athletic thresholds. He should be a day one started in the nickel which will allow they to play Murphy as a chess piece based on matchup. E.G he can shadow receivers in and out of the slot. Its a nice luxury. Aside from Turner and Murphy the Vikings expect both Booth & Evans to contribute at the other outside CB spot.
3(69) via LAR: Jonathan Mingo (WR - Ole Miss): Now the Vikings move up to fill their need at WR with Mingo. While I'm not sure who they would choose amongst a group of Mingo, Mims and Dell I do think they can add a day 1 piece to the offense in this general area. Over the spring I've heard the Vikings prefer a WR 2 who wins underneath and can run away from the defense. This eliminates many of the field stretchers but schematically this actually is a nice wrinkle. If you have a WR2 that can consistently win in that fashion you really need to pick your position if they continue to stack Hockenson and Jefferson. Either bracket Jefferson with a LB and CB instead of a safety or leave the WR 2 1x1 or bracketed with a LB who can no longer plug the run game. The Vikings give 3(80) via PIT and 4(119) for this pick and 6(191).
3(87): Yaya Diaby (DE - Louisville): While I didn't project any player trades in this mock I feel its 50/50 if Za'Darius Smith is on the 2023 roster. Diaby is a bit of a different player but someone who can move up and down the D-line with the quickness and physicality to win in multiple ways. While he needs to continue developing a more consistent pass rushing repertoire, teams are going to love the schematic versatility and toolkit. In my mind we're talking about at worst a rotational pass rusher with the potential to become a regular contributor which is a value when talking about a premium position in the 3rd.
4(115): via NO: Noah Sewell (LB - Oregon): Brian Asamoah is penciled in to start next to Jordan Hicks but that just isn't the long-term solution at the position. How the Vikings approach ILB will be fascinating. Will they prioritize a bigger ILB similar to Sewell to offset Asamoah's lack of mass or go full modern NFL and play two quick undersized LBs? Its a dilemma if they choose to target a LB earlier since you're basically comparing Trenton Simpson to Drew Sanders. They like Sanders FYI. But in Sewell they get a prototypical ILB that has the attributes of what the Patriots/Flores have loved historically. Although he lacks some range he can consume blocs and excels as a pass rusher. He arguably has enough of a skillset to compete with Hicks already. The one caveat is that Flores did trend away from larger LBs with the Dolphins which makes it hard to put on thumb on their physical preferences.
5(165): via NO: Dorian Thompson-Robison (QB - UCLA): The Vikings are heavily invested in this QB class and although the narrative has been they take a shot in the middle rounds, I would not be shocked to see them move into the top 10 for the right QB (likely Stroud or Richardson). We will see. If not, taking a stab with a late round pick in Thompson Robinson is a riskless throw at the dartboard. DTR has a really impressive athletic profile which allows you to really stress the defense with designed runs and roll-outs. He passes well enough to keep the defense honest. There are some long-term questions on accuracy and the ability to read an NFL defense outside of Chip Kelly's offense. But he has enough intriguing tools to take a chance. Off the field there are concerns on maturity which is why he may drop vs. his consensus rankings. But at this point it makes too much sense.
6(191): via LAR: Evan Hull (RB - Northwestern): Its a matter or days until Dalvin Cook is likely no longer a Vikings. Once the backfield is turned over the Mattison & Chandler they will need a bit more depth. Hull is an underrated prospect who may not be a RB1 in the NFL but has the profile to be a swiss-army knife #2 who can play in the league for many years. He can run between the tackles but also excels in the passing game. For a 6th round pick he is one of the safer choices if you're looking for prospect that would likely make the roster and provide some long-term value. In time he arguably could develop into a starting level back similar to Mattison. A strong contributor for a team who wants to focus on passing the ball.
6(211): Andrew Vorhees (OG - USC): Who knows if Vorhees will fall this far come draft weekend, but teams always shy away from immediate contributors. Vorhees likely will need a season to rehab after suffering an injury at the combine but I could see the Vikings viewing this as surplus value. Prior to the injury he was likely a 3rd round pick who had the potential to start at LG in year one. With Ezra Cleveland entering a contract and Ed Ingram still proving his long-term fit along the line I could see Vorhees as a nice long-term hedge. They don't need him now but come next year he very well may have a spot available to him in the starting 5.
