Thielen retiring a Viking?

[greediron]

https://www.twincities.com/2023/02/09/ad...ta-viking/

[Guest]

interest 

[Guest]

management better check with his wife first

[Guest]

It sounds like the Vikings are trying to make this happen. Stay tuned. 

[Guest]

Love to have him back. But I have my doubts this will work out. I tend to think the gap between what the Vikings should spend and Thielen's value on the market is significant. Probably depends a lot on how much money Thielen is willing to leave on the table to stay in Minnesota. 

[Guest]

I think we’re more all in and less rebuilding than a lot of
people think.  I think we’ll ride this
train until we’re ready to get off the kirk train, and then do a more
substantiative rebuild.  Overthecap
values him at something like $12.5M, which I think we’d probably do and I don't think the market would go too much higher.

[Guest]

@medaille said:
I think we’re more all in and less rebuilding than a lot of
people think.  I think we’ll ride this
train until we’re ready to get off the kirk train, and then do a more
substantiative rebuild.  Overthecap
values him at something like $12.5M, which I think we’d probably do and I don't think the market would go too much higher.

His base right now is just short of 12M,  so really he is already at market price,  its the 4 mill in signing bonus thats prorated, plus a roster bonus,  plus money from his last restructure and a small workout bonus thats the issue.  Wont get away from the prorated SB.

[Guest]

His market value is in the $6-8M range on a 1 year deal, probably closer to $6M. Vikings save $6.5M cutting his now but would have to add a player to the 53-man roster so that nets out to only saves them around $5.7M on the cap. There is probably enough momentum to get something done with the assumption Thielen isn't looking for above market value. 

Say they reduce his base salary down to $6M (market) guarantee and reduce his per game bonuses to $500K but then sweeten with a $1M incentive for reaching 725 yards in 2023 with another $500K if he reaches 1K yards. That gives him a chance to earn a good portion of the money back. On the cap that reduces his hit from $19.9M to 13.2M which actually saves them $300K more than cutting him pre June-1. 

Point is, I think it probably benefits the Vikings to work something out even if Thielen is more of a 2B receiver than the high-end WR2 he was in the past. By 2024 his dead money is only $7M which makes moving on a bit easier. The only real constraint they are working with this off-season is they can't really kick money into the future since they probably already did it one too many times. 

[Guest]

@"Geoff Nichols" said:
His market value is in the $6-8M range on a 1 year deal, probably closer to $6M. Vikings save $6.5M cutting his now but would have to add a player to the 53-man roster so that nets out to only saves them around $5.7M on the cap. There is probably enough momentum to get something done with the assumption Thielen isn't looking for above market value. 

Say they reduce his base salary down to $6M (market) guarantee and reduce his per game bonuses to $500K but then sweeten with a $1M incentive for reaching 725 yards in 2023 with another $500K if he reaches 1K yards. That gives him a chance to earn a good portion of the money back. On the cap that reduces his hit from $19.9M to 13.2M which actually saves them $300K more than cutting him pre June-1. 

Point is, I think it probably benefits the Vikings to work something out even if Thielen is more of a 2B receiver than the high-end WR2 he was in the past. By 2024 his dead money is only $7M which makes moving on a bit easier. The only real constraint they are working with this off-season is they can't really kick money into the future since they probably already did it one too many times. 

This seems right. But it also depends upon the parties have similar ideas re how much AT could get as a FA. The Vikings may be thinking we will not pay him more than, say, $8M and we know he can get $6M as a FA. So there is our negotiating window, low end $6M; top end $8M. But if AT thinks he can get at least $9M in FA, then they will not reach an agreement.

The point is that both parties need to have a similar view of what AT could get in FA.

[Guest]

@dadevike said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said:
His market value is in the $6-8M range on a 1 year deal, probably closer to $6M. Vikings save $6.5M cutting his now but would have to add a player to the 53-man roster so that nets out to only saves them around $5.7M on the cap. There is probably enough momentum to get something done with the assumption Thielen isn't looking for above market value. 

Say they reduce his base salary down to $6M (market) guarantee and reduce his per game bonuses to $500K but then sweeten with a $1M incentive for reaching 725 yards in 2023 with another $500K if he reaches 1K yards. That gives him a chance to earn a good portion of the money back. On the cap that reduces his hit from $19.9M to 13.2M which actually saves them $300K more than cutting him pre June-1. 

Point is, I think it probably benefits the Vikings to work something out even if Thielen is more of a 2B receiver than the high-end WR2 he was in the past. By 2024 his dead money is only $7M which makes moving on a bit easier. The only real constraint they are working with this off-season is they can't really kick money into the future since they probably already did it one too many times. 

This seems right. But it also depends upon the parties have similar ideas re how much AT could get as a FA. The Vikings may be thinking we will not pay him more than, say, $8M and we know he can get $6M as a FA. So there is our negotiating window, low end $6M; top end $8M. But if AT thinks he can get at least $9M in FA, then they will not reach an agreement.

The point is that both parties need to have a similar view of what AT could get in FA.

I think Thielen understands that there is a value to staying in Minnesota. The offense, the QB, the kids in school, etc. Determining what that value is will be the question. Because I tend to think he could get more on the market than Minnesota can afford to pay him. So is it worth $3M less to say in Minnesota? $2M? We'll see...