Are the Vikings
good?Sunday's win gave both sides ammunition for their argument. If you're a Vikings believer, you saw a team fight back against one of the NFL's best teams down 17 points in the second half and win. The Vikings overcame adversity, picked up big plays when they needed, forced two critical Allen interceptions and pulled out a game in which they were seen as underdogs on a national stage against
Case Keenum, let alone an MVP candidate in Allen.
If you're more of a skeptic, well, you can tell yourself an entirely different story. The Vikings fell behind by multiple touchdowns and needed one long touchdown run by
Dalvin Cook to get back in the game before the greatest catch of Jefferson's life extended it. Then, after they were stuffed at the goal line, the Bills gifted them a touchdown with a botched snap. Ed Donatell's defense then failed to stop the Bills from driving for a tying field goal. While the Vikings took the lead in overtime, the Bills were driving to match or win before a mental mistake by Allen handed Minnesota yet another close victory.
I fall somewhere in the middle on this question. Pulling out a win in Buffalo is impressive, no matter how they come about that victory. Since acquiring Diggs in 2020, the Bills had been 19-4 at home and 20-3 when scoring at least 30 points. They had been 8-0 when both were true. Even if it took a well-timed fumble, this is the sort of win the Vikings can point to as the first line on their 2022 résumé.
As successful as this formula has been for Minnesota, it's not the hallmark of great teams. Teams that end up having postseason success typically don't toy with their regular-season opponents. They blow teams out. The Vikings are 8-1 and have won each of the games on their seven-game win streak by eight points or fewer. Eight-point margins aren't one-possession games since a team can't win the game on a single drive, but you get the idea: These are close games, and the Vikings have needed late scores to beat the Bills, Commanders, Lions and Saints.
Yet there's a fair number of teams that have won games this way and managed to find postseason success. The only other team since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger to win seven consecutive games by eight points or fewer is the 2020 Chiefs, who rode their luck
all the way to the Super Bowl before being torn apart by offensive line injuries and the Tampa Bay pass rush. Those Chiefs already had proved that they could dominate teams in 2019, though, so we didn't have the same conversations about their abilities.
Looking at it a different way, Minnesota has seven victories by eight points or fewer across the first nine games of its season. That's tied for the most since the merger, and the two other teams with seven such wins represent two dramatic swings. The 1987 Chargers were affected by the strike, but they went 8-1 to start the season while winning one game by more than six points. Al Saunders' team promptly lost its last six games and missed the playoffs.
On the other hand, the 2006 Colts did this same thing, and after getting back safety
Bob Sanders for the playoffs, they got hot on defense and won
Super Bowl XLI. The 1976 Raiders won six of their first nine games by eight points or fewer, went 13-1 and won a Lombardi. The 2003 Panthers finished 11-5 and made it to the Super Bowl. All things being equal, you're better off being a team that wins by a lot each week, but winning a bunch of close games in a season doesn't preclude a team from making a deep playoff run.
At some point, having victories in your back pocket can help overcome whatever deficiencies are on the roster. Remember 2017? The Eagles weren't this sort of team when they started 11-2, but when quarterback
Carson Wentz went down with a
torn ACL, backup
Nick Foles was forced into the lineup. Foles had a big game in a win over the Giants, but he struggled badly the next week and was benched in Week 17.
In a vacuum, an Eagles team with Foles at quarterback wouldn't have seemed like the favorite to win a Super Bowl. With all those banked victories, though, they finished with the top seed in the NFC, netting them a first-round bye and home-field advantage in the postseason. Foles struggled through a narrow win over the Falcons, but he got hot in a blowout victory over the Falcons in the NFC Championship Game. You remember what happened in
Super Bowl LII.
The Vikings aren't as strong of a team as those Eagles were with Wentz, but if the 2022 Eagles slip up, Cousins & Co. are best-positioned to pounce. Their chances of making it through the NFC are a lot better if they have to win two games at home as opposed to three games with at least one road trip involved.
The other crystal-clear element for the Vikings is that
they believe they belong among the top teams in the league. Maybe that doesn't matter much, and if they lose to the Patriots and the Cowboys over the next two weeks, that self-belief will dissipate as quickly as it appeared. But after years of frustrating moments, missed kicks and a coaching staff that often seemed
frustrated with the roster, everybody is on the same page in Minnesota. It sure looks a lot more fun to be a Vikings player this year than it did a year ago.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35021856/was-vikings-bills-best-game-nfl-season-explaining-ending-justin-jefferson-catch-josh-allen-struggles-kirk-cousins-rise