Quote: @greediron said:
@ pattersaur said:
@ greediron said:
@ pattersaur said:
@ 1VikesFan said:
@ pattersaur said:
@ 1VikesFan said:
I think this decision will haunt the Niners.
It won’t. Lance is a prototype QB of the future of the NFL. SF knows it and are being proactive. The Vikings would do well to monitor this situation closely.
We'll see. I just don't think he's that good. Just because he's athletic doesn't make him an NFL QB. He needs to improve his mechanics and pocket presence and neither of those are easy to do. But of course this is just my opinion. He doesn't need to be THAT good this year though. They have a good defense plus a solid stable of running backs and Deebo, Kittle, Aiyuk. To go along with probably the best offensive coach in the league, or close to it. If Lance can hold down the fort while providing some electric plays and getting his feet wet / learning, it will be a huge win for the Niners long term. Jimmy G has played in a super bowl for them and won playoff games as recently as last season, but clearly the Niners think Lance has a higher upside. It's a similar gamble as to what the Chiefs made on Mahomes. That one worked out. This one is TBD, but I'm inclined to trust Shanahan and Lynch.
Or similar to the gamble they took with kaepernik.
Very similar! That one took them to the SB and also owned GB for years so I can see why they’re anxious to try it again. I was thinking of the gamble they took on his contract. That was after their superbowl appearance. After signing his big contract, he really started to struggle with the QB thing, harbaugh bailed and then Kaep fell of the face of the NFL. He went 8-8, 2-6 and 1-10 in his last 3 years after signing a big contract.
Lance is on a cheap rookie deal for 3 more years with a 5th year option so while I see what you mean about Kaep’s money not working out, the Niners don’t have to worry about that with Lance for quite some time so I’m not sure how that’s super relevant.
We can revisit this thread during the season but to me the Niners are doing what the Vikings should be strongly considering doing. I understand a bird in the hand but if you keep bonking your head against the glass ceiling with said bird, it might be time to investigate the bush.
Here is the basis for my expert opinion 
Last year QB ranking of who I would have taken:
1 - Lawrence and a very close 1-a - Wilson
Lawrence did not look very good but was put in the worst situation of any QB - rookie or not.
I loved/still do Wilson who was also put in a very bad Jets situation but not as bad as Lawrence's. Wilson played worse than Lawrence - IMO.
3 - Fields
4 - Mac Jones
5 - Lance - too inexperienced and ran a lot in college as a man amongst boys. He pulled the ball down and ran when under pressure too much but of course was successful with those runs even when guys were wide open/pressure/run. Has the physical skills (6'3 225) but I did not see a QB in command of a complex offense having to make clutch plays to win close games. I saw a man amongst boys who blew away the competition with his size/speed and strong (not necessarily accurate) arm. He was almost playing street ball. This is the NFL his size/speed/arm are still high level but in the range of most of the Top 10 QB's so he is not a unicorn in the Mahome's mold...again my opinion. He is more in the Josh Allen mold, but I don't think as talented passing wise or even running wise although that needs to be seen on the field for Lance playing as a man amongst men. I agree with the Kap analogy and that might be high end for Lance IMO.
You heard it here first from someone who would have drafted him after Feilds and Mac Jones and still would.
I think the 49'ers made the wrong decision on Lance and also gave up too much but I will go back to my strong belief and advocacy for the Vikings:
If you are in a position of the draft, with a strong QB class, trust your personnel decisions, and carpe diem or go get him. Shanahan/Lynch sure did that so Kudos for having the balls to make that move. I am not sure what I would have done at 3 because that was too high for me for any of the remaining 3 QB's. Plus, they gave up so much to get to 3 they weren't likely to get close to equal value in a small trade down into the 7-10 range where I would have taken any of the remaining 3 QB's starting with Fields at 7. I'm just being honest as to how my final thoughts were about that 2021 draft at that time and posted as such.
We might be in a similar situation next offseason draft. Meaning we need one of the young QB's do we have the trust in a second year GM/HC and some new staff to have the balls of a seasoned vet like Shan/Lynch??? Inquiriing minds want to know Actually, ideal for me would be KC proves me (and many others) wrong and we stick with him. I would then still want to look strong at the QB but not as aggressively as if we were desparate.
My goodness..I can ramble on
Quote: @pattersaur said:
@ greediron said:
@ pattersaur said:
@ greediron said:
Or similar to the gamble they took with kaepernik.
Very similar! That one took them to the SB and also owned GB for years so I can see why they’re anxious to try it again. I was thinking of the gamble they took on his contract. That was after their superbowl appearance. After signing his big contract, he really started to struggle with the QB thing, harbaugh bailed and then Kaep fell of the face of the NFL. He went 8-8, 2-6 and 1-10 in his last 3 years after signing a big contract.
Lance is on a cheap rookie deal for 3 more years with a 5th year option so while I see what you mean about Kaep’s money not working out, the Niners don’t have to worry about that with Lance for quite some time so I’m not sure how that’s super relevant.
We can revisit this thread during the season but to me the Niners are doing what the Vikings should be strongly considering doing. I understand a bird in the hand but if you keep bonking your head against the glass ceiling with said bird, it might be time to investigate the bush.
Yeah, might as well see what they got at some point. I would think another year of seasoning might do him well, but they have soured on Garapalo, or so it seems.
Lance was a running QB at NDSU. Yeah, he's got a big arm, but he'd drop back and more often than throw. No way would I trust a NDSU QB as a NFL pure passer. NDSU is a running offense, so expecting Trey to be a pass first QB just won't happen right away. He might end up being really good one day, but taking him so high in the draft seemed crazy to me. Hell, I thought Wentz would be a 4th rounder so I guess I really have a hard time evaluating college QBs.
Quote: @HappyViking said:
Lance was a running QB at NDSU. Yeah, he's got a big arm, but he'd drop back and more often than throw. No way would I trust a NDSU QB as a NFL pure passer. NDSU is a running offense, so expecting Trey to be a pass first QB just won't happen right away. He might end up being really good one day, but taking him so high in the draft seemed crazy to me. Hell, I thought Wentz would be a 4th rounder so I guess I really have a hard time evaluating college QBs.
Dude, don't be so hard on yourself. Wentz has played like a 4th rounder.
Quote: @StickyBun said:
@ MaroonBells said:
Lance is a phenomenal athlete. He's also uber smart and has a cannon for an arm. I had him ranked #1 among the QBs last year, ahead of even Lawrence.
Now, none of that means jack if you play him before he's ready (Bears), but the 49ers were smart with him. So I have a feeling Shanahan will know how to get the most out of him. Still, I think he's a year away.
.....more importantly, none of that means jack if he can't be a pro QB. He may never be ready. Steve McNair basically sat 2 full seasons (a few starts sprinkled in, but he had no pressure as THE man) before being named the starter. Yet here's the difference I'm talking about: McNair attempted 1,755 passes in college. Lance has 318 attempts. 318 ATTEMPTS. In the Missouri Valley Conference. I don't see how there isn't extreme skepticism with him.
I have nothing against the kid and wish him well....sincerely. From all accounts, a nice young man. He's on a decent team, that will help. Solid coaching in San Fran. The table is set up for him to succeed.
lets take it back a bit further, he went to a small HS in rural MN, coming out he was the top rated HS passer in MN, but none of the power 5 colleges would keep him at QB, they were all thinking WR or DB. Yes he had success in the MVC, but lets be honest, NDs success over the last decade or so kind of has them in a sweet spot for grabbing top tier athletes that might be getting over looked by the bigger schools ( unjustly so for many of them ) and its this collection of upper tier talent that is accumulating in Fargo that has given the Bison a huge advantage over other teams at that level, not just the talents of a one and done QB.
Lance is a great athlete, raw as hell as a QB, and IMO its a mistake putting this yoke on him this year, he will likely have a little success, but his pedigree didnt prepare him for this role, and IMO 1 year on the bench learning wont make up for the pressures that comes with the job...let alone all the expectations from the fans that saw the team mortgage the future to get him. I have to wonder if this is more about the ownership group demanding something from the gm and coach instead it being a testament to Lance's readiness.
I respect and appreciate that the 49ers are shooting their shot. At least when the Vikings get to that point, the old regime will have no part in choosing the guy. No one knows yet if Lance is the guy but it was pretty obvious that Jimmy G. wasn't.
Quote: @pattersaur said:
@ AGRforever said:
@ pattersaur said:
@ AGRforever said:
@ pattersaur said:
@ 1VikesFan said:
I think this decision will haunt the Niners.
It won’t. Lance is a prototype QB of the future of the NFL. SF knows it and are being proactive. The Vikings would do well to monitor this situation closely.
The odds that any QB drafted turns into a quality starter is extremely low.
Ok sure but what does that have to do with Lance? I laid out why I think he’ll succeed on the Niners— maybe not immediately, but long term. Do you disagree and think he’ll stink? Do you think they’d be better off sticking with Jimmy G?
Even Trevor Lawrence a "generational talent" sucked last year.
Trey barely played at the collegiate level. I have no idea how the Niners plan on transitioning him into a starting role and not having the team implode. If he doesn't light it up right out the gate (which its likely he wont) you're going to have a bunch of resentment in that locker room....unless they trade Jimmy.
So you think they would be better off having not drafted Lance and staying with Jimmy? If that’s what you’re saying I understand it and do see the merit, but ultimately I disagree. Again, I trust Shanahan and Lynch to know what they’re doing.
Its not just Lance. They gave up ‘21, ‘22, ‘23s firsts and a 3rd. Had they already had the third pick thats one thing. To give up that many premium picks for a kid who has next to no collegiate experience….no it was a terrible decision.
Id put the odds well under 1/10 that he’s the starter in 2024.
Quote: @AGRforever said:
@ pattersaur said:
@ AGRforever said:
@ pattersaur said:
@ AGRforever said:
@ pattersaur said:
@ 1VikesFan said:
I think this decision will haunt the Niners.
It won’t. Lance is a prototype QB of the future of the NFL. SF knows it and are being proactive. The Vikings would do well to monitor this situation closely.
The odds that any QB drafted turns into a quality starter is extremely low.
Ok sure but what does that have to do with Lance? I laid out why I think he’ll succeed on the Niners— maybe not immediately, but long term. Do you disagree and think he’ll stink? Do you think they’d be better off sticking with Jimmy G?
Even Trevor Lawrence a "generational talent" sucked last year.
Trey barely played at the collegiate level. I have no idea how the Niners plan on transitioning him into a starting role and not having the team implode. If he doesn't light it up right out the gate (which its likely he wont) you're going to have a bunch of resentment in that locker room....unless they trade Jimmy.
So you think they would be better off having not drafted Lance and staying with Jimmy? If that’s what you’re saying I understand it and do see the merit, but ultimately I disagree. Again, I trust Shanahan and Lynch to know what they’re doing.
Its not just Lance. They gave up ‘21, ‘22, ‘23s firsts and a 3rd. Had they already had the third pick thats one thing. To give up that many premium picks for a kid who has next to no collegiate experience….no it was a terrible decision.
Id put the odds well under 1/10 that he’s the starter in 2024.
LOL. Hyperbole much?
More likely odds are "well under" 1 in 10 that the 49ers give up on a player they gave three 1sts and a 3rd for before his 1st contract is up.
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