Quote: @MaroonBells said:
@ supafreak84 said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
@ supafreak84 said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
@ supafreak84 said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
Its a pretty solid roster that is built to compete now while allowing the coaches/front office to better access what they have. Nothing they've done on offense should lower their floor barring injuries. So say that is locked in as a top-12 unit or better.
On defense they've improved the pass rush but I worry it could take some time to adapt into the 3-4 scheme. There are also more health concerns on that side of the ball. Although the secondary could still struggle I believe they should cover better in space with the addition of Cine and Asamoah who can play immediately in a nickel role.
Mix in the easier schedule and they should be right there with other playoff teams. The NFL is unpredictable so maybe that is even good enough to win the division. More likely than not they're more wild card material but we'll have to see how it plays out. The goal this season is to remain competitive while allowing the new FO to figure out what the path forward needs to look like.
Geoff...would love to get your take on the trade down with Detoilet, our draft class, all the trades and how you thought Kwesi fared in his first draft. It's a pretty split crowd here and I happen to think it was highly questionable overall. Would love to hear your take.
I think he did alright with a tough hand being dealt to him. All of their targets were off the board by #12 and it was a buyers market to move up in the draft. So I think on the trade with Detroit he broke even given the market but lost based on the precedence of what others teams have gotten in the past to move up. So take that for what you will. I personally would have asked Detroit if they would have done #32, #34, and the Rams 23' 1st for #12 and #46. That first would be valued as a mid-second round pick.
As for what they did with the picks from there, I like Cine. Hamilton wasn't going to be a fit based on draft value and his style of play. Cine will help them cover in space and add some violence to a defense that really lacks it.
They did much better on the trade-down with GB and moving up to grab Booth was a masterful play of working the draft. Of all the picks I think you could have gotten Ingram a little later but based on how their picks were distributed if they wanted Asamoah they'd probably just been swapping those two guys.
Asamoah I am a big fan of. He covers well enough in-space that you can bring him into the base 3-4 in-place of Hunter/Smith and let him work in coverage. Long-term he has a very good chance of taking over for either Kendricks or Hicks.
The only last thing I'll leave you with, is they filled needs with this draft class but also hedged considerably. If this season isn't a success they now have cost controlled replacements for Harrison Smith and Kendricks or Hicks. That could easily be $13.5M - $16M available next off-season if they choose to do more of the traditional cap purge.
Your trade suggestion with Detroit would have been much more reasonable. I thought you said before the draft if Jameson Williams made it to our pick to look for him to be the selection? What happened there, and we're they so locked in on Sauce and Stingley that when they went off the board it was going to be a trade down one way or another? That's what it felt like to me. We traded out of a premium position where a lot of excellent prospects we're still available, for minimal compensation from a division rival...to draft a safety with the last pick of the round. Talk about taking the wind out of our collective draft sails.
He was on the list of potential options. He was behind Garrett Wilson on their board. If Wilson had made it to #12 they would have made the pick. Jamison was right on the line of where they would trade out.
People talk about "premium" positions and I would argue safety is quickly getting to be equally as important as CB. Very different roles but look how much the analytics driven teams or smart teams have invested in the position.
As defenses have adapted to the modern NFL the safeties have become versatile enough that they are becoming a pillar of defensive scheming. So I don't necessarily frown at the value of Cine. Many teams had 1st round grades on him.
I'll disagree with you. Just look at the list of 1st round safeties in the last ten years:
2021- None, first safety drafted was Javon Holland (36)
2020- None, first safety drafted was Xavier McKinney (36)
2019- Darnell Savage (21), Jonathan Abram (27)
2018- Minkah Fitzpatrick (11), Derwin James (17), Terrell Edmonds (28)
2017- Jamal Adams (6), Malik Hooker (15), Jabril Peppers (25)
2016- Karl Joseph (15), Keanu Neal (17)
2015- Damarious Randall (30), Landon Collins (33, close enough)
2014- Calvin Pryor (18), Ha-Ha Clinton Dix (21), Deone Bucannon (27), Jimmie Ward (30)
2013- Kenny Vaccaro (15), Eric Reid (18), Matt Elam (32)
2012- Mark Barron (7), Harrison Smith (29)
Outside of Harrison Smith and Minkah Fitzpatrick, that is one huge elephant pile of shit and why I say I'd never take a safety with a 1st round pick. The position has been hugely devalued and teams can simply transition cornerbacks to play the position now, ala Bynum. It's great that Cine can obliterate guys coming over the middle and be an enforcer, the only problem is that's not allowed in the NFL anymore and flags are thrown on anything even coming close to resembling a hard hit. If we wanted a safety with range and coverage skills then we should have taken Hamilton. I just don't see safeties as close to being pillars of your defense. Those should be your front seven guys. So not only will I frown not only at the value of taking Cine, but I frown at the fact that we traded all the way down to the last pick of the round to take a safety. Thats a double L in my opinion.
You can do this with just about every position. Check the WRs taken in the 1st round in the last 10 drafts....
2012 - Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, AJ Jenkins
2013 - Tavon Austin, Deandre Hopkins, Cordarrelle Patterson
2014 - Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, OBJ, Brandon Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin
2015 - Amari Cooper, Kevin White, DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor, Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett
2016 - Corey Coleman, Will Fuller, Josh Doctson, Laquon Treadwell
2017 - Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross
2018 - DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley
2019 - Marquise Brown, N'Keal Harry
2020 - Henry Ruggs, Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Jalen Reagor, JJ, Brandon Aiyuk
2021 - Ja'Mar Chase, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Kadarius Toney, Rashod Bateman
There are 40 names here. How many have given their team 1st round value? 7 maybe? 8?
DeAndre Hopkins, Cordarelle Patterson, Mike Evans, OBJ, Amari Cooper, DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley, Ceedee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, Jaylen Waddle, and Devonte Smith. So I count 12 with the jury is still out a couple of the young guys.
The safety list was 2 out of 23 1st rounders in the last ten years
@ supafreak84
I think you're a bit hard on that safety list. Jamal Adams, Darnell Savage, and Derwin James are great players. I'd even argue Eric Reid was very good before he got blackballed for kneeling... Also Landon Collins has been a good safety for a long time. There are more good players than just Harrison and Minkah.
Quote:
You can do this with just about every position. Check the WRs taken in the 1st round in the last 10 drafts....
2012 - Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, AJ Jenkins
2013 - Tavon Austin, Deandre Hopkins, Cordarrelle Patterson
2014 - Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, OBJ, Brandon Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin
2015 - Amari Cooper, Kevin White, DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor, Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett
2016 - Corey Coleman, Will Fuller, Josh Doctson, Laquon Treadwell
2017 - Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross
2018 - DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley
2019 - Marquise Brown, N'Keal Harry
2020 - Henry Ruggs, Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Jalen Reagor, JJ, Brandon Aiyuk
2021 - Ja'Mar Chase, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Kadarius Toney, Rashod Bateman
There are 40 names here. How many have given their team 1st round value? 7 maybe? 8?
DeAndre Hopkins, Cordarelle Patterson, Mike Evans, OBJ, Amari Cooper, DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley, Ceedee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, Jaylen Waddle, and Devonte Smith. So I count 12 with the jury is still out a couple of the young guys.
The safety list was 2 out of 23 1st rounders in the last ten years
No idea what you could be thinking here...
Fitz 2X All Pro, 2X Pro Bowl
James 2X All Pro, 2X Pro Bowl
Adams All Pro
Collins All Pro, 3X Pro Bowl, All Rookie
Harry All Pro, 6X Pro Bowl
Reid Pro Bowl, All Rookie
Clinton-Dix All Pro, Pro Bowl, All Rookie
Neal Pro Bowl
Joseph All Rookie
Bucannon All Rookie
Vaccaro All Rookie
Barron All Rookie
I'd say there were only 3 or 4 on that list that HAVEN'T been at least pretty solid. And very few busts. For example, Jimmie Ward has never been to a Pro Bowl, but he got his 5th year option and just signed a new $29M deal with the team who drafted him.
Now look at the WR list. At least 2/3 of that list weren't just disappointments but flat out busts.
Quote: @MaroonBells said:
You can do this with just about every position. Check the WRs taken in the 1st round in the last 10 drafts....
2012 - Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, AJ Jenkins
2013 - Tavon Austin, Deandre Hopkins, Cordarrelle Patterson
2014 - Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, OBJ, Brandon Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin
2015 - Amari Cooper, Kevin White, DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor, Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett
2016 - Corey Coleman, Will Fuller, Josh Doctson, Laquon Treadwell
2017 - Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross
2018 - DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley
2019 - Marquise Brown, N'Keal Harry
2020 - Henry Ruggs, Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Jalen Reagor, JJ, Brandon Aiyuk
2021 - Ja'Mar Chase, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Kadarius Toney, Rashod Bateman
There are 40 names here. How many have given their team 1st round value? 7 maybe? 8?
DeAndre Hopkins, Cordarelle Patterson, Mike Evans, OBJ, Amari Cooper, DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley, Ceedee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, Jaylen Waddle, and Devonte Smith. So I count 12 with the jury is still out a couple of the young guys.
The safety list was 2 out of 23 1st rounders in the last ten years
No idea what you could be thinking here...
Fitz 2X All Pro, 2X Pro Bowl
James 2X All Pro, 2X Pro Bowl
Adams All Pro
Collins All Pro, 3X Pro Bowl, All Rookie
Harry All Pro, 6X Pro Bowl
Reid Pro Bowl, All Rookie
Clinton-Dix All Pro, Pro Bowl, All Rookie
Neal Pro Bowl
Joseph All Rookie
Bucannon All Rookie
Vaccaro All Rookie
Barron All Rookie
I'd say there were only 3 or 4 on that list that HAVEN'T been at least pretty solid. And very few busts. For example, Jimmie Ward has never been to a Pro Bowl, but he got his 5th year option and just signed a new $29M deal with the team who drafted him.
Now look at the WR list. At least 2/3 of that list weren't just disappointments but flat out busts.
Pro Bowls really don't mean squat anymore but that's a another conversation for another time. How many of those guys off that safery list are out of the league, on their second/third teams or received second contracts by the teams that drafted them? I mentioned Ward above along with Smith being the only two on the list receiving second contracts with their original teams. So ultimately what value did those players have to the teams that drafted them? Not much is the answer. Derwin James, good player but injured all the time. The Jets absolutely fleeced the Seahawls in the Jamal Adams trade. Is Dix even in the league anymore? Neal is playing nickel LB for the Cowgirls. Reid was pretty average before talking himself out of the league. Landon Collins is on his 3rd team as a backup in New England, and the list goes on. It's just not a premier position.
Quote: @Wetlander said:
@supafreak84
I think you're a bit hard on that safety list. Jamal Adams, Darnell Savage, and Derwin James are great players. I'd even argue Eric Reid was very good before he got blackballed for kneeling... Also Landon Collins has been a good safety for a long time. There are more good players than just Harrison and Minkah.
James is good but injured all the time. Jamal Adams is terribly overrated and the Jets were happy to move him. Darnell Savage was awful last year and his PFF grade ranked 73rd of an eligible 94 graded safeties and the Packers have not picked up his option. Landon Collins is on his 3rd team and currently listed as a backup in New England. None of these guys were worth where they were drafted.
NFL Draft Pick Bust Rate Remains Very HighMore analytics haven’t increased the success rate
By wludford@wludford Apr 26, 2022, 8:53pm CDT Kirby Lee-USA TODAY SportsIt’s that time of year when visions of future All-Pros are dancing in the heads of NFL fans - Vikings fans included. The NFL Draft is just a couple days away, and projecting how good draft picks will be based on their college highlight reels, or RAS stats, or simply the hype behind them is difficult to avoid.
But the reality is that most draft picks don’t work out. Whether they’re busts, didn’t live up to their draft position, had injury or off-field issues, didn’t do much to move the dial, or never played much, most draft picks turn out to be some level of disappointment, or don’t make much of a difference in the team’s success.
And so only about 8% of draft picks are players that really make much of a difference beyond replacement value, and only about 30% see much playing time or make a significant contribution to the team.
That means among the 260 or so drafted players each year, only about 2-3 will have Hall of Fame caliber careers, and only about 21 will be undisputedly good picks- and very good but not HoF caliber players.
Overall, only about two dozen players every draft will go on to have significant careers performing at a high level. That’s not a lot - less than one genuinely good player per team each year.
2021 draft looks pretty darn good to me but 2 years early - I really like Darrisaw and Bynum looks to be a good starter
2020 draft looks excellent - JJ, Cleveland, Dantzler, Woonum - going into year 3
2019 does not look good at all - Bradbury, Irv, Mattison, Udoh - going into year 4 (consensus earliest judgment year)
2018 around average maybe below - O'Neill and Conklin
2017 not good below average - only Cook
2016 - very bad - not a single player with the team - treadwell year with only Mac with any sort of contribution
2015 - undoubtedly the best draft in the Spelly era - Waynes, Kendricks, Hunter, Diggs
So, you do have to let things brew for a couple seasons to get a true read. I want to point that out the day of the draft so that everyone doesn't think our new regime are geniuses or idiots because it will take years to figure out (usually - I'm not talking about Redskins/Raiders..we know they are idiots). The GM role has at least a whole season if not 2 before you can get a read while a HC has about half a season. A players has about 3 years as noted.
Just trying to manage expectations ![[Image: smile.png]](https://vikefans.com/vfforums/plugins/EmojiExtender/emoji/twitter/smile.png)
Quote: @"Geoff Nichols" said:
Its a pretty solid roster that is built to compete now while allowing the coaches/front office to better access what they have. Nothing they've done on offense should lower their floor barring injuries. So say that is locked in as a top-12 unit or better.
On defense they've improved the pass rush but I worry it could take some time to adapt into the 3-4 scheme. There are also more health concerns on that side of the ball. Although the secondary could still struggle I believe they should cover better in space with the addition of Cine and Asamoah who can play immediately in a nickel role.
Mix in the easier schedule and they should be right there with other playoff teams. The NFL is unpredictable so maybe that is even good enough to win the division. More likely than not they're more wild card material but we'll have to see how it plays out. The goal this season is to remain competitive while allowing the new FO to figure out what the path forward needs to look like.
Plus the rookies dont have to wait till game 4ish or injuries to propel them to starting roles
Quote: @supafreak84 said:
@ MaroonBells said:
You can do this with just about every position. Check the WRs taken in the 1st round in the last 10 drafts....
2012 - Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, AJ Jenkins
2013 - Tavon Austin, Deandre Hopkins, Cordarrelle Patterson
2014 - Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, OBJ, Brandon Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin
2015 - Amari Cooper, Kevin White, DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor, Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett
2016 - Corey Coleman, Will Fuller, Josh Doctson, Laquon Treadwell
2017 - Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross
2018 - DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley
2019 - Marquise Brown, N'Keal Harry
2020 - Henry Ruggs, Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Jalen Reagor, JJ, Brandon Aiyuk
2021 - Ja'Mar Chase, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Kadarius Toney, Rashod Bateman
There are 40 names here. How many have given their team 1st round value? 7 maybe? 8?
DeAndre Hopkins, Cordarelle Patterson, Mike Evans, OBJ, Amari Cooper, DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley, Ceedee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, Jaylen Waddle, and Devonte Smith. So I count 12 with the jury is still out a couple of the young guys.
The safety list was 2 out of 23 1st rounders in the last ten years
No idea what you could be thinking here...
Fitz 2X All Pro, 2X Pro Bowl
James 2X All Pro, 2X Pro Bowl
Adams All Pro
Collins All Pro, 3X Pro Bowl, All Rookie
Harry All Pro, 6X Pro Bowl
Reid Pro Bowl, All Rookie
Clinton-Dix All Pro, Pro Bowl, All Rookie
Neal Pro Bowl
Joseph All Rookie
Bucannon All Rookie
Vaccaro All Rookie
Barron All Rookie
I'd say there were only 3 or 4 on that list that HAVEN'T been at least pretty solid. And very few busts. For example, Jimmie Ward has never been to a Pro Bowl, but he got his 5th year option and just signed a new $29M deal with the team who drafted him.
Now look at the WR list. At least 2/3 of that list weren't just disappointments but flat out busts.
Pro Bowls really don't mean squat anymore but that's a another conversation for another time. How many of those guys off that safery list are out of the league, on their second/third teams or received second contracts by the teams that drafted them? I mentioned Ward above along with Smith being the only two on the list receiving second contracts with their original teams. So ultimately what value did those players have to the teams that drafted them? Not much is the answer. Derwin James, good player but injured all the time. The Jets absolutely fleeced the Seahawls in the Jamal Adams trade. Is Dix even in the league anymore? Neal is playing nickel LB for the Cowgirls. Reid was pretty average before talking himself out of the league. Landon Collins is on his 3rd team as a backup in New England, and the list goes on. It's just not a premier position.
Should the argument also be made for WR then as well? Since the lower levels of football are dominated by 7-on-7 leagues there will likely be WR talent available every single year for the foreseeable future. So that would then not make it a premium position?
Any player that either assists or defends against the QB is a premium position. The whole idea is that its WR, CB, Pass Rushers, etc.. only is just short-sighted.
Quote: @supafreak84 said:
@ MaroonBells said:
You can do this with just about every position. Check the WRs taken in the 1st round in the last 10 drafts....
2012 - Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, AJ Jenkins
2013 - Tavon Austin, Deandre Hopkins, Cordarrelle Patterson
2014 - Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, OBJ, Brandon Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin
2015 - Amari Cooper, Kevin White, DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor, Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett
2016 - Corey Coleman, Will Fuller, Josh Doctson, Laquon Treadwell
2017 - Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross
2018 - DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley
2019 - Marquise Brown, N'Keal Harry
2020 - Henry Ruggs, Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Jalen Reagor, JJ, Brandon Aiyuk
2021 - Ja'Mar Chase, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Kadarius Toney, Rashod Bateman
There are 40 names here. How many have given their team 1st round value? 7 maybe? 8?
DeAndre Hopkins, Cordarelle Patterson, Mike Evans, OBJ, Amari Cooper, DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley, Ceedee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, Jaylen Waddle, and Devonte Smith. So I count 12 with the jury is still out a couple of the young guys.
The safety list was 2 out of 23 1st rounders in the last ten years
No idea what you could be thinking here...
Fitz 2X All Pro, 2X Pro Bowl
James 2X All Pro, 2X Pro Bowl
Adams All Pro
Collins All Pro, 3X Pro Bowl, All Rookie
Harry All Pro, 6X Pro Bowl
Reid Pro Bowl, All Rookie
Clinton-Dix All Pro, Pro Bowl, All Rookie
Neal Pro Bowl
Joseph All Rookie
Bucannon All Rookie
Vaccaro All Rookie
Barron All Rookie
I'd say there were only 3 or 4 on that list that HAVEN'T been at least pretty solid. And very few busts. For example, Jimmie Ward has never been to a Pro Bowl, but he got his 5th year option and just signed a new $29M deal with the team who drafted him.
Now look at the WR list. At least 2/3 of that list weren't just disappointments but flat out busts.
Pro Bowls really don't mean squat anymore but that's a another conversation for another time. How many of those guys off that safery list are out of the league, on their second/third teams or received second contracts by the teams that drafted them? I mentioned Ward above along with Smith being the only two on the list receiving second contracts with their original teams. So ultimately what value did those players have to the teams that drafted them? Not much is the answer. Derwin James, good player but injured all the time. The Jets absolutely fleeced the Seahawls in the Jamal Adams trade. Is Dix even in the league anymore? Neal is playing nickel LB for the Cowgirls. Reid was pretty average before talking himself out of the league. Landon Collins is on his 3rd team as a backup in New England, and the list goes on. It's just not a premier position.
Now do that for the list of WRs above. You know how many of them are out of the NFL? Also, you can use whatever metric you want. Use PFF grade for all I care. You're going to get a similar result for most positions.
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