Quote: @supafreak84 said:
Johnson is a great prospect and I've been high on him since about midway through the college season, but after retaining Hunter and our big splash signing in free agency being Zadarius Smith, I just don't see edge being the pick. We also have some intriguing young guys behind those two starters.
I'm feeling pretty good that if Hamilton, Sauce, and Stingley are all off the board at #12...the pick is going to be a WR or they trade out of the pick.
I’m in the same boat as ZaDarius changed the situation quite a bit. If we draft another DE in the first round then that basically says Patrick Jones or J-Rob are gone in their second year. We already have Wonnum in there so you’re almost gambling with your first round pick becoming a 4th option
Quote: @supafreak84 said:
@ purplefaithful said:
@ supafreak84 said:
@ purplefaithful said:
@ supafreak84 said:
Johnson is a great prospect and I've been high on him since about midway through the college season, but after retaining Hunter and our big splash signing in free agency being Zadarius Smith, I just don't see edge being the pick. We also have some intriguing young guys behind those two starters.
I'm feeling pretty good that if Hamilton, Sauce, and Stingley are all off the board at #12...the pick is going to be a WR or they trade out of the pick.
Edge wouldnt surprise me tbh...As a fan I wonder about the health of Zadarius and Hunter too. I dont know how high the ceilings are for the guys behind them?
Dont sleep on the IDL from the Dawgs D - the one not named Davidson. He could be a trade-down target if they go that route.
I'd be surprised with an edge unless they just don't trust that Hunter and Smith can stay on the field, but if that was the case, I don't see the highly analytical Kwesi signing them. Wonnum, Wilikes, Patrick Jones, and Robinson behind them. I think our edge group might be the best collective position group on the roster currently.
As far as Devonte Wyatt goes, there are a ton of background red flags on him and a lot of teams have taken him off theor draft boards. Arrested in February 2020 on a family violence charge and also involved in three other similar incidents. I can't see Kwesi rolling the dice on a guy like that in his first draft, especially on the heels of Jeff Gladney two years ago.
I did not know that!
Yup
Maybe Geoff could clue us in on where the team stands with him. The Vikings did have him in for a top 30 visit, but still a guy with a very checkered background.
He is on quite a few teams boards, but there are background concerns with him. I imagine the Vikings had him in on a top 30 for this reason specifically.
On Johnson, Daniel Jeremiah has him ranked above Kayvon Thibedeaux in his final pre-draft rankings and they just mocked him at #3 overall to Houston in their final mock draft.
Quote: @Hawkvike25 said:
@ supafreak84 said:
Johnson is a great prospect and I've been high on him since about midway through the college season, but after retaining Hunter and our big splash signing in free agency being Zadarius Smith, I just don't see edge being the pick. We also have some intriguing young guys behind those two starters.
I'm feeling pretty good that if Hamilton, Sauce, and Stingley are all off the board at #12...the pick is going to be a WR or they trade out of the pick.
I’m in the same boat as ZaDarius changed the situation quite a bit. If we draft another DE in the first round then that basically says Patrick Jones or J-Rob are gone in their second year. We already have Wonnum in there so you’re almost gambling with your first round pick becoming a 4th option
IMO, pass rushers are always a BPA option and will be for us in the 1st round. But I agree, OLB is not a need for us and not a position we should be picking past the 1st round. I know it's a deep class, but I doubt we pick one at all.
One thing that might argue against that is scheme fit. Who knows what the new regime thinks about Wonnum, J-Rob, PJII.
Quote: @MaroonBells said:
@ Hawkvike25 said:
@ supafreak84 said:
Johnson is a great prospect and I've been high on him since about midway through the college season, but after retaining Hunter and our big splash signing in free agency being Zadarius Smith, I just don't see edge being the pick. We also have some intriguing young guys behind those two starters.
I'm feeling pretty good that if Hamilton, Sauce, and Stingley are all off the board at #12...the pick is going to be a WR or they trade out of the pick.
I’m in the same boat as ZaDarius changed the situation quite a bit. If we draft another DE in the first round then that basically says Patrick Jones or J-Rob are gone in their second year. We already have Wonnum in there so you’re almost gambling with your first round pick becoming a 4th option
IMO, pass rushers are always a BPA option and will be for us in the 1st round. But I agree, OLB is not a need for us and not a position we should be picking past the 1st round. I know it's a deep class, but I doubt we pick one at all.
One thing that might argue against that is scheme fit. Who knows what the new regime thinks about Wonnum, J-Rob, PJII.
There is also the long-term considerations though. Even if EDGE isn't a need Z'Darius and Hunter both have durability questions and you can use Johnson now in a rotation. By next year you can save $10M by cutting/trading Za'Darius. So although you aren't drafting for need, thats $10M you open up next year. I'd argue there is more value in that vs. a receiver.
Quote: @"Geoff Nichols" said:
@ MaroonBells said:
@ Hawkvike25 said:
@ supafreak84 said:
Johnson is a great prospect and I've been high on him since about midway through the college season, but after retaining Hunter and our big splash signing in free agency being Zadarius Smith, I just don't see edge being the pick. We also have some intriguing young guys behind those two starters.
I'm feeling pretty good that if Hamilton, Sauce, and Stingley are all off the board at #12...the pick is going to be a WR or they trade out of the pick.
I’m in the same boat as ZaDarius changed the situation quite a bit. If we draft another DE in the first round then that basically says Patrick Jones or J-Rob are gone in their second year. We already have Wonnum in there so you’re almost gambling with your first round pick becoming a 4th option
IMO, pass rushers are always a BPA option and will be for us in the 1st round. But I agree, OLB is not a need for us and not a position we should be picking past the 1st round. I know it's a deep class, but I doubt we pick one at all.
One thing that might argue against that is scheme fit. Who knows what the new regime thinks about Wonnum, J-Rob, PJII.
There is also the long-term considerations though. Even if EDGE isn't a need Z'Darius and Hunter both have durability questions and you can use Johnson now in a rotation. By next year you can save $10M by cutting/trading Za'Darius. So although you aren't drafting for need, thats $10M you open up next year. I'd argue there is more value in that vs. a receiver.
Theilen’s cap hit next year is like $20M so drafting a WR to replace him makes sense to me too. DE would be good too though, I agree.
Quote: @pattersaur said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
@ MaroonBells said:
@ Hawkvike25 said:
@ supafreak84 said:
Johnson is a great prospect and I've been high on him since about midway through the college season, but after retaining Hunter and our big splash signing in free agency being Zadarius Smith, I just don't see edge being the pick. We also have some intriguing young guys behind those two starters.
I'm feeling pretty good that if Hamilton, Sauce, and Stingley are all off the board at #12...the pick is going to be a WR or they trade out of the pick.
I’m in the same boat as ZaDarius changed the situation quite a bit. If we draft another DE in the first round then that basically says Patrick Jones or J-Rob are gone in their second year. We already have Wonnum in there so you’re almost gambling with your first round pick becoming a 4th option
IMO, pass rushers are always a BPA option and will be for us in the 1st round. But I agree, OLB is not a need for us and not a position we should be picking past the 1st round. I know it's a deep class, but I doubt we pick one at all.
One thing that might argue against that is scheme fit. Who knows what the new regime thinks about Wonnum, J-Rob, PJII.
There is also the long-term considerations though. Even if EDGE isn't a need Z'Darius and Hunter both have durability questions and you can use Johnson now in a rotation. By next year you can save $10M by cutting/trading Za'Darius. So although you aren't drafting for need, thats $10M you open up next year. I'd argue there is more value in that vs. a receiver.
Theilen’s cap hit next year is like $20M so drafting a WR to replace him makes sense to me too. DE would be good too though, I agree.
Really!? $20mm??
That aint going to happen...
Couple that with: How much 11 personnel KOC will probably play + JJ new contract?
Nobody should be surprised if they draft a WR earlier vs later.
Quote: @purplefaithful said:
@ pattersaur said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
@ MaroonBells said:
@ Hawkvike25 said:
@ supafreak84 said:
Johnson is a great prospect and I've been high on him since about midway through the college season, but after retaining Hunter and our big splash signing in free agency being Zadarius Smith, I just don't see edge being the pick. We also have some intriguing young guys behind those two starters.
I'm feeling pretty good that if Hamilton, Sauce, and Stingley are all off the board at #12...the pick is going to be a WR or they trade out of the pick.
I’m in the same boat as ZaDarius changed the situation quite a bit. If we draft another DE in the first round then that basically says Patrick Jones or J-Rob are gone in their second year. We already have Wonnum in there so you’re almost gambling with your first round pick becoming a 4th option
IMO, pass rushers are always a BPA option and will be for us in the 1st round. But I agree, OLB is not a need for us and not a position we should be picking past the 1st round. I know it's a deep class, but I doubt we pick one at all.
One thing that might argue against that is scheme fit. Who knows what the new regime thinks about Wonnum, J-Rob, PJII.
There is also the long-term considerations though. Even if EDGE isn't a need Z'Darius and Hunter both have durability questions and you can use Johnson now in a rotation. By next year you can save $10M by cutting/trading Za'Darius. So although you aren't drafting for need, thats $10M you open up next year. I'd argue there is more value in that vs. a receiver.
Theilen’s cap hit next year is like $20M so drafting a WR to replace him makes sense to me too. DE would be good too though, I agree.
Really!?
$20mm??
That aint going to happen...Couple that with how much 11 personnel KOC will probably play? Nobody should be surprised if they draft a WR earlier vs later.
Yeah Thielen's a 19.9 million cap hit in 2023 and a 21 million hit in 2024. Good chance this is his last year in Minnesota unless he restructures at a hugely reduced rate. So the argument could certainly be made that it would be even more beneficial to take a WR over an EDGE rusher from a future cap savings standpoint, if that was the argument to be made.
Just my opinion on the EDGE guys, but there is an almost 100% chance the top four prospects will be off the board by the time the Vikings pick at #12. There is growing chatter that the Jags are going to take Travon Walker with the top pick. If that happens the Lions will take Hutchinson at #2 and it pushes the value of Johnson and Thibedeaux, who will also come off the board shortly after. Again, as far as the Vikings go, I firmly believe the pick will come down to Stingley (Sauce will be gone), Kyle Hamilton, one of the receivers, or a trade down.
So to build on that...
4 edges
1 qb (maybe 2)
1 WR
Hamilton
Sauce & Stingley
That could very well be the top 10...Vikings have to hope some of those teams with QB needs (and two #1 picks) make moves up.
That top 10 scenario seems highly likely and it wouldn't leave me very happy either.
Quote: @pattersaur said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
@ MaroonBells said:
@ Hawkvike25 said:
@ supafreak84 said:
Johnson is a great prospect and I've been high on him since about midway through the college season, but after retaining Hunter and our big splash signing in free agency being Zadarius Smith, I just don't see edge being the pick. We also have some intriguing young guys behind those two starters.
I'm feeling pretty good that if Hamilton, Sauce, and Stingley are all off the board at #12...the pick is going to be a WR or they trade out of the pick.
I’m in the same boat as ZaDarius changed the situation quite a bit. If we draft another DE in the first round then that basically says Patrick Jones or J-Rob are gone in their second year. We already have Wonnum in there so you’re almost gambling with your first round pick becoming a 4th option
IMO, pass rushers are always a BPA option and will be for us in the 1st round. But I agree, OLB is not a need for us and not a position we should be picking past the 1st round. I know it's a deep class, but I doubt we pick one at all.
One thing that might argue against that is scheme fit. Who knows what the new regime thinks about Wonnum, J-Rob, PJII.
There is also the long-term considerations though. Even if EDGE isn't a need Z'Darius and Hunter both have durability questions and you can use Johnson now in a rotation. By next year you can save $10M by cutting/trading Za'Darius. So although you aren't drafting for need, thats $10M you open up next year. I'd argue there is more value in that vs. a receiver.
Theilen’s cap hit next year is like $20M so drafting a WR to replace him makes sense to me too. DE would be good too though, I agree.
$20M is true but his contract is a choose your own adventure after 2022. There are really 3 options:
- Option 1 (least likely): Cut after the season saves them $6.4M but straddles them with $13.6M in dead money.
- Option 2 (not that likely): Cut Post-Jun 1 after the season saves them $13.5M on the 23' cap but leaves $6.5M in dead money in 23' and another $7M in dead money in 24'.
- Option 3 (kind of likely): They play him out on the $20M cap hit
- Option 4 (most likely): They move $5-6M of the 23' cap hit into 24' making his cap hit more like $13-15M while keeping the future dead money around $10M. So the outcome being a cut after the 23' season with a benefit of about $10M and dead money of $10M.
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