Gas Is Totally Out Of Control

[Guest]

Yeah, the fed doesn't have any agenda in all this.  :eyeroll

[Guest]

its funny how the prices increases are just corporate greed and profit taking,  so what happens when the prices drop?   Apparently all those greedy people see the error of their ways and all agree to stop being greedy and taking profits?

[Guest]

@JimmyinSD said:
its funny how the prices increases are just corporate greed and profit taking,  so what happens when the prices drop?   Apparently all those greedy people see the error of their ways and all agree to stop being greedy and taking profits?

Or the corporate greed knows weak leadership and sees that they can take advantage for profits.  Big oil has their fingers in many political puppets just like Big Pharma does.  The politicians and the mega corps screw us coming and going.  Brandon is just the latest puppet.

[Guest]

@BigAl99 said:

@JimmyinSD said:

@BigAl99 said:

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surve...-questions

but they werent being pressured when profits and stock prices were a fraction of what they are today? 

OK, you win,  the prices at the pump have nothing to do with the uncertainty created by brandons "leadership": decisions and are based on the greed of investors. I just have to wonder,  who is really profiting when these environmental decisions are taking place?  how invested are those politicians that privately support these moves in oil?

and the inflation is temporary and transitional.

I know it's the Fed Reserve's information, not Brietbart, take it for what it's worth.  But look at the whole survey, you may find it enlightening, good info on production price breakpoints.  Take some time and make sure you get micro and macro economics you seem to get them confused quite often.  Wondering can lead to knowledge, take the opportunity, don't wait for someone to agree with you and call it good.

How can you not think it's Wall Street taking advantage?  Remember about a year ago (May 7th, 2021) when when the colonial pipeline got shutdown by a ransomware attack, just shutdown the East Coast supply.  Did prices go down in the Midwest because of a glut in the supply chain, or did some "investors" profit from the emotional drama and insecurity of an American institution being attacked and everyone's retail price go up?  Investors are pretty damn serious about their money, and also know a bit about marketing.

From my understanding of the technology of fracking, it gets the crude out quicker, but the overall increase in production will not cover the total investment for the life of the well.  Profits over the first few years are fantastic, but rapidly decline after 2 to 3 years, that's why investors are so hesitant to put more in when their existing investments are trailing off.  

I'll try to do my best to understand the nuances of macro vs microeconomics...too funny coming from a guy who thinks a snapshot of pump price vs price per barrel of oil in a highly volatile market is proof positive of ANYTHING...or that rise in oil prices was because of a ship stuck in the Suez canal...or that inflation is transitory and wasn't really an issue.  Gas prices are still at 4.24 per gallon and oil has jumped back up after that dip you posted to 114 by the way.

Did you actually read what you posted? The CEOs stated that Investor pressure to maintain capital discipline was the most important factor restraining investment in growth despite high energy prices.  The CEOs didn't say that profit taking was their motivation.  In other words, the oil companies are being instructed to not make significant investments in growth given the large number of unknowns...including regulation, access, Covid restrictions, etc.  Would you expect them to make a significant investment in GROWTH...especially given the large losses they endured last year.  They'll maintain cost controls or diversification until someone gives them incentive to do differently.  Effectively, the investors are telling them not to get out too far over their skis particularly given the Democrats hostility towards fossil fuels.  Did you read the comments?  Pretty telling as well.

Just be honest.  The Dems believe that Climate Change is so important that it's worth dragging our entire economy down with it.  It's a principled and costly stand.  If you're going to take that position...be prepared to defend the approach instead of blaming everyone else.  

You mentioned the Colonial pipeline...as you said...speculators do what speculators do....they take information and speculate.  Rapidly changing events cause overcorrections...both ways.  

[Guest]

on a side note...  a month ago I noticed Tesla stock got beat up pretty good and I was tempted to buy... ( i bought a ford gas pickup instead) but dammit, if I had pulled the trigger I would have gotten into Tesla for 830 and its back over 1000 again.  woulda coulda shoulda,  next time.  17% return in 5 weeks would have been a nice start to my year.

[Guest]

@badgervike said:

@BigAl99 said:

@JimmyinSD said:

@BigAl99 said:

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surve...-questions

but they werent being pressured when profits and stock prices were a fraction of what they are today? 

OK, you win,  the prices at the pump have nothing to do with the uncertainty created by brandons "leadership": decisions and are based on the greed of investors. I just have to wonder,  who is really profiting when these environmental decisions are taking place?  how invested are those politicians that privately support these moves in oil?

and the inflation is temporary and transitional.

I know it's the Fed Reserve's information, not Brietbart, take it for what it's worth.  But look at the whole survey, you may find it enlightening, good info on production price breakpoints.  Take some time and make sure you get micro and macro economics you seem to get them confused quite often.  Wondering can lead to knowledge, take the opportunity, don't wait for someone to agree with you and call it good.

How can you not think it's Wall Street taking advantage?  Remember about a year ago (May 7th, 2021) when when the colonial pipeline got shutdown by a ransomware attack, just shutdown the East Coast supply.  Did prices go down in the Midwest because of a glut in the supply chain, or did some "investors" profit from the emotional drama and insecurity of an American institution being attacked and everyone's retail price go up?  Investors are pretty damn serious about their money, and also know a bit about marketing.

From my understanding of the technology of fracking, it gets the crude out quicker, but the overall increase in production will not cover the total investment for the life of the well.  Profits over the first few years are fantastic, but rapidly decline after 2 to 3 years, that's why investors are so hesitant to put more in when their existing investments are trailing off.  

I'll try to do my best to understand the nuances of macro vs microeconomics...too funny coming from a guy who thinks a snapshot of pump price vs price per barrel of oil in a highly volatile market is proof positive of ANYTHING...or that rise in oil prices was because of a ship stuck in the Suez canal...or that inflation is transitory and wasn't really an issue.  Gas prices are still at 4.24 per gallon and oil has jumped back up after that dip you posted to 114 by the way.

Did you actually read what you posted? The CEOs stated that Investor pressure to maintain capital discipline was the most important factor restraining investment in growth despite high energy prices.  The CEOs didn't say that they were profit taking was their motivation.  In other words, the oil companies are being instructed to not make significant investments in growth given the large number of unknowns...including regulation, access, Covid restrictions, etc.  Would you expect them to make a significant investment in GROWTH...especially given the large losses they endured last year.  They'll maintain cost controls or diversification until someone gives them incentive to do differently.  Effectively, the investors are telling them not to get out too far over their skis particularly given the Democrats hostility towards fossil fuels.  Did you read the comments?  Pretty telling as well.

Just be honest.  The Dems believe that Climate Change is so important that it's worth dragging our entire economy down with it.  It's a principled and costly stand.  If you're going to take that position...be prepared to defend the approach instead of blaming everyone else.  

You mentioned the Colonial pipeline...as you said...speculators do what speculators do....they take information and speculate.  Rapidly changing events cause overcorrections...both ways.  

Yeah I read it, did you and just not grasp they had the choice any of the other factors you mention?   It isn't profit taking by the Oil companies, their profit is from production, not commodity speculation.  You understand the difference, right.
See if you can find these words
"Oil engineers and reserves specialists say existing data suggests
there is a more accurate way to model well output. Operators, they say,
must use more conservative assumptions about how quickly production will
decline and how many wells can be drilled in a given area. Operators
also should avoid making forecasts without a sufficient sample size of
wells, they say.
Flawed forecasting doesn’t mean U.S. oil output
is about to drop. Shale wells reach peak production quickly and rapidly
decline, so companies are constantly drilling new wells. But if
thousands of shale wells produce less over their lifetimes, companies
will reap less of a long tail than anticipated, requiring them to spend
more to sustain output and making it harder for them to reach profitability.
Shale
companies have attracted huge amounts of capital from Wall Street over
the past decade. So far, investors have largely lost money. Since 2008,
an index of U.S. oil and gas companies has fallen 43%, while the S&P
500 index has more than doubled in that time, including dividends. The
29 companies in the Journal’s analysis have spent $112 billion more in
cash than they generated from operations in the last 10 years, according
to data from FactSet, a financial-information firm."
In this article =>  https://www.wsj.com/articles/frackings-s...1546450162
Then re-read what I said about fracking production.  I said nothing about climate impact or any of the other things you try to conflate with my comments on the survey.  For me investments in drilling new wells, at this point, are just paying off the debts of past wells.  Fracking has turned it into a pyramid scheme that Wall Street isn't going along with.  Either way we are going to pay, the choice is at the pump or in taxes or lost services.

[Guest]

Al - Did you really just learn that fracking by its very nature is faster to make a profit and drops off considerably after only a few years...usually with a lesser performing well for 8-10 years.  Is this a new epiphany for you?...that's hysterical...lol.  Fracking suffered from lower oil prices...meaning they weren't making as much for their product..primarily as a result of higher global production and lower demand due to the pandemic.  

Here's a pretty good explanation when taken as a whole on fracking and oil exploration and the mitigating factors to expansion of capital investment.  It's from Science Direct with lots of big words and source citations.  Do your best to follow along.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar...8521002062

The article explains the future uncertainty due to potential policy changes and renewables as the biggest impediment to capital investiture.  And from your chart, what's the reason that nearly 60% of the oil and gas firms cited as primary reason they were restraining growth despite high prices?  I'll help you out.  The oil and gas firms cited "Investor pressure to maintain capital discipline" as by far the most significant contributor.

[Guest]

No Badger, I've known it for quite awhile, and I disagree that this article about a paper in any way supports your point or lack there of. Review the article and read the conclusion.  Any clue what the typical debt cycle is for financing wells?  I know.  

"This flexible production process has helped sections of the industry
avoid the commodity’s uncertain outlook by narrowly focusing on the near
term. However, hydraulic fracturing, while offering a different
temporal and financial scale of investment, is often more expensive per
barrel. Confronted by COVID-19 disruptions, massive debt, and public
contestation [SIC], some predict the end of fracking, as the least profitable,
most indebted players go under. This paper hypothesizes that
intensifying uncertainty over the future of oil – above all from the
renewable energy transition – will, however, ironically further
stimulate this destructive form of extraction."
I liked this point in particular:
"Outside of the US, it is unlikely that something like the scale of the
American fracking boom will be replicated – especially in oil. American
fracking has benefited from pre-existing oil and gas infrastructure, a
large community of advanced oil and gas talent and technology, a massive
resource base, little to no regulations, oil and gas subsidies,
geopolitical desires for ‘energy independence,’ and a unique
relationship to massive lines of credit (McClean, 2018)"
Read the conclusion:
"Though some may understandably celebrate the disruptions they see in the
oil industry, fracking is a tool oil capitalists in North America are
using to adapt to this challenging environment. Shale has not solved
their conundrum – it has not ended these cycles of volatility nor
guaranteed oil’s future; but it gives sections of the industry a means
to ride the waves. In this context, scholars and activists should
question those who suggest that fracking or, for that matter, oil will
melt away in face of recent oil market tumult. There is no automatic
transition to renewables underway. Political action is required to solve
the climate emergency."
Does the term temporal confuse you, in this context it means short term.  Sixty percent of companies say investors, not management or corporate boards, the folks that the companies answer to.  The investors, not speculators, see it for what it is, quick money that doesn't pay off for the duration of the debt.  The investors want "Capital discipline"  even though there is no "Lack of access to financing".  Catch the subtlety how the author says "uncertainty of the commodity" and in the next uses "Scale of investment" two different CONCEPTS.  Where in the article does he mention policy.   Are you really of the mind that the transition to renewable energy is just a matter of political whimsy and not economics or technology.  Keep whinging it's entertaining and is as satisfying as McDonald's fries, no value but satisfying as being consumed.  Just call me the Bus, I take you to school every time.

[Guest]

@BigAl99 said:

No Badger, I've known it for quite awhile, and I disagree that this article about a paper in any way supports your point or lack there of. Review the article and read the conclusion.  Any clue what the typical debt cycle is for financing wells?  I know.  

"This flexible production process has helped sections of the industry
avoid the commodity’s uncertain outlook by narrowly focusing on the near
term. However, hydraulic fracturing, while offering a different
temporal and financial scale of investment, is often more expensive per
barrel. Confronted by COVID-19 disruptions, massive debt, and public
contestation [SIC], some predict the end of fracking, as the least profitable,
most indebted players go under. This paper hypothesizes that
intensifying uncertainty over the future of oil – above all from the
renewable energy transition – will, however, ironically further
stimulate this destructive form of extraction."
I liked this point in particular:
"Outside of the US, it is unlikely that something like the scale of the
American fracking boom will be replicated – especially in oil. American
fracking has benefited from pre-existing oil and gas infrastructure, a
large community of advanced oil and gas talent and technology, a massive
resource base, little to no regulations, oil and gas subsidies,
geopolitical desires for ‘energy independence,’ and a unique
relationship to massive lines of credit (McClean, 2018)"
Read the conclusion:
"Though some may understandably celebrate the disruptions they see in the
oil industry, fracking is a tool oil capitalists in North America are
using to adapt to this challenging environment. Shale has not solved
their conundrum – it has not ended these cycles of volatility nor
guaranteed oil’s future; but it gives sections of the industry a means
to ride the waves. In this context, scholars and activists should
question those who suggest that fracking or, for that matter, oil will
melt away in face of recent oil market tumult. There is no automatic
transition to renewables underway. Political action is required to solve
the climate emergency."
Does the term temporal confuse you, in this context it means short term.  Sixty percent of companies say investors, not management or corporate boards, the folks that the companies answer to.  The investors, not speculators, see it for what it is, quick money that doesn't pay off for the duration of the debt.  The investors want "Capital discipline"  even though there is no "Lack of access to financing".  Catch the subtlety how the author says "uncertainty of the commodity" and in the next uses "Scale of investment" two different CONCEPTS.  Where in the article does he mention policy.   Are you really of the mind that the transition to renewable energy is just a matter of political whimsy and not economics or technology.  Keep whinging it's entertaining and is as satisfying as McDonald's fries, no value but satisfying as being consumed.  Just call me the Bus, I take you to school every time.

lol, yes you do. New sig pic maybe?

[Guest]

So...President Shitshispants has decided that draining the STRATEGIC OIL RESERVES to temporarily lower oil prices is the way to go.  What if the global supply gets dramatically depleted if Russian oil is truly globally embargoed and OPEC uses it to push their agenda?  Can you say rationing?  That was fun in the Carter years.  Oh...and by the way...the oil in those reserves was bought at high prices because the Administration refused to replenish the reserves early in their term (as they were recommended to do)...because...well...you know...oil is evil.

Today, he's authorizing more E85 production...

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/bid...gas-prices

So...the US can now pay the blenders the extra 45 cent per gallon subsidy to blend a food stuff with fuel that lowers MPG by 25%.