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- BEARS
Over/under win total: 7.5
I don't buy that the Chicago Bears will roll with Andy Dalton for very long. I think they're going to protect rookie first-round quarterback Justin Fields from Aaron Donald and the Los Angeles Rams in a road prime-time opener, and then we're going to see Fields as early as Week 2.
And if that happens, a team this talented on defense and that has several quality weapons for Fields on offense should at least be in the .500 range in 2021.
The Bears had a top-10 D in terms of DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at Football Outsiders last season, and key figures Khalil Mack, Akiem Hicks, Roquan Smith, Eddie Jackson and Robert Quinn are all back.
The offensive line could be weak, especially with second-rounder Teven Jenkins out until at least Week 4 on IR, and Fields could have some growing pains. But he's got star potential and enough talent around him to excel in 2021.
The Bears won eight of 16 games with Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles last year and eight with Trubisky in 2019. Eight shouldn't be a problem with Dalton and Fields having an extra game to work with in 2021.
Prediction: 8-9
Kitties
- Over/under win total: 4.5
Take the five-win 2020 Detroit Lions and replace Matthew Stafford, Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr. with Jared Goff, Tyrell Williams and Kalif Raymond, and tell me this isn't going to be one of the worst teams in the NFL.
Sure, they probably needed a change at quarterback, and they pocketed oodles of draft capital, but Goff hasn't been right since bombing in the 2018 Super Bowl, and those receivers are both better-suited as No. 3 targets at best.
Detroit should still score some points because the offensive line is one of the best in the sport, and tight end T.J. Hockenson is becoming a star, but last year's 32nd-ranked defense in DVOA might somehow be worse with Jarrad Davis, Desmond Trufant and Justin Coleman departing, and Alex Anzalone and Michael Brockers climbing aboard.
Based on Football Outsiders' adjusted games lost formula, the Lions were quite fortunate from a health standpoint in 2020. That's terrifying. The future could soon become bright, but they're likely to take a step backward in Dan Campbell's debut season.
Prediction: 4-13
- GB
Over/under win total: 10
That over/under feels quite low for a Green Bay Packers team that has won 13 games in each of Matt LaFleur's two seasons as head coach and will have 2020 MVP Aaron Rodgers under center in 2021.
But it's fair to wonder about the Packers' offensive line with Corey Linsley and Rick Wagner gone, and stalwart left tackle David Bakhtiari fighting back from a late-2020 torn ACL. And a good-not-great defense doesn't look much better off now than it was when they were roasted by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in last year's playoffs.
Plus, you're now allowed to at least look at the panic button with regard to star pass-rusher Za'Darius Smith's back injury.
Could Rodgers slip up with less support in his age-38 season? Could injuries and a fairly tough schedule bring Green Bay down? It's all possible, but I still think the oddsmakers are being a little too conservative. I'll take the over by a victory, even if a nine- or 10-win season wouldn't shock me.
Prediction: 11-6
- VIKINGS
Over/under win total: 9
The Minnesota Vikings were relatively healthy in 2020, and they had their supposed franchise quarterback, Kirk Cousins, for all 16 games. Yet they won just seven and ranked 20th in the league in DVOA at Football Outsiders.
The schedule was tough, but it's not expected to be substantially easier in 2021 and the same core remains in place, minus key defenders Anthony Harris and Eric Wilson.
Who knows when we'll see first-round left tackle Christian Darrisaw, and how the pass rush will look as Danielle Hunter comes back from a neck injury with limited support. Cousins puts up solid numbers but has never been consistent, his offensive line remains a question mark and the NFC North should be difficult again with Aaron Rodgers returning to the Packers.
Even with a revamped secondary, star back Dalvin Cook and Hunter's return giving them a slightly higher ceiling than in 2020, it's hard to get behind a winning record for these Vikes.
Prediction: 8-9
Quote: @purplefaithful said:
- VIKINGS
Over/under win total: 9
The Minnesota Vikings were relatively healthy in 2020, and they had their supposed franchise quarterback, Kirk Cousins, for all 16 games. Yet they won just seven and ranked 20th in the league in DVOA at Football Outsiders.
The schedule was tough, but it's not expected to be substantially easier in 2021 and the same core remains in place, minus key defenders Anthony Harris and Eric Wilson.
Who knows when we'll see first-round left tackle Christian Darrisaw, and how the pass rush will look as Danielle Hunter comes back from a neck injury with limited support. Cousins puts up solid numbers but has never been consistent, his offensive line remains a question mark and the NFC North should be difficult again with Aaron Rodgers returning to the Packers.
Even with a revamped secondary, star back Dalvin Cook and Hunter's return giving them a slightly higher ceiling than in 2020, it's hard to get behind a winning record for these Vikes.
Prediction: 8-9
I guess Hunter injury, Pierce opting out, Barr early injury, then later Kendricks is relatively healthy??
Those silly BR fuckwads. Vikings had 4 players. FOUR! among their starting 22 who didn't miss time due to injury. And one of them was DJ freaking Dozier.
Down the stretch, due to injury, our front four was as follows: Odenigbo, Stephen, Johnson and Holmes. All but Stephen are not currently on an NFL roster.
Our linebackers were Eric Wilson, Ryan Connolly and Blake Lynch.
That group of slugs, who won 7 games, has been replaced by Hunter, Tomlinson, Pierce, Wonnum, Barr, Kendricks and Vigil....to say nothing of the secondary, where our #1 corner last year is now our #5.
Yeah, Vikings win one more game.
Quote: @MaroonBells said:
Those silly BR fuckwads. Vikings had 4 players. FOUR! among their starting 22 who didn't miss time due to injury. And one of them was DJ freaking Dozier.
Down the stretch, due to injury, our front four was as follows: Odenigbo, Stephen, Johnson and Holmes. All but Stephen are not currently on an NFL roster.
Our linebackers were Eric Wilson, Ryan Connolly and Blake Lynch.
That group of slugs, who won 7 games, has been replaced by Hunter, Tomlinson, Pierce, Wonnum, Barr, Kendricks and Vigil....to say nothing of the secondary, where our #1 corner last year is now our #5.
Yeah, Vikings win one more game.
You are being too kind calling them fuckwads. Anything less than 11 wins and I'm pretty disappointed.
My son says 9 wins. I am going to go with 10.
I think if we beat Cincinnati we’ll be 1-0…  B)
11-6 sounds just about right to me. 10-7 would be acceptable, assuming we still make the play-offs. 9-8 or less would suck with the talent on this roster, but we shall see what other sucker-punches await to derail this season. Sorry for the pessimism showing, but after all, are we not the Vikings?
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