You aren't in Marshall, Minnesota anymore....

[Guest]

@JimmyinSD said:

@Hawkvike25 said:

@AGRforever said:

@Hawkvike25 said:
California is on a different level when it comes to real estate, but home prices everywhere are on an uptick, especially new construction due to the material cost increase. I've seen some homes in the Iowa City area that sold for $385,000 in December and that same layout/house is now listed at $425,000. Hope these rookies take their time evaluating the market and give it a year or so before buying.

Right there is the crux of the stepped up cost basis argument happening right now.  The Biden administration wants to do away with the beneficiaries current ability to inherit something at the value as of the date of death.
Its being discussed as "taxing the rich" when in fact anyone who will inherit anything is probably effected by the potential change. 

What make it even more complicated with housing is how do you value what was "gain" and what was reinvestment into the property?  Did you put on a new deck? Or redo a kitchen?  How can one accurately value each transaction that was put into a house that if we're not going to have stepped up basis would certainly need to be deducted from the gains in said real property?

I'm not sure if the discussion of altering capital gains tax will have much to do with residential real estate. The main thing out there right now is the import tariff of lumber from Canada as that has really hammered builders on new construction. I think we if address that then we can see some relief on pricing

the lumbers tariffs were over 2 years ago,  and actually were slashed about 6 months ago,  I think this is more demand driven although I have heard that Canada has slowed lumber exports as retaliation for their pipeline being killed.   The real increases in lumber costs have actually come since the tariffs were slashed in December although they were starting to rise last year as covid put cash in peoples pockets and forced them to spend more time at home.  now with low interest rates and essentially most of the country a year behind in new home starts... its balls to the walls.  But I live close to a major interstate for lumber transport coming out of canada and I can say I dont see nearly as many lumber trucks and trains coming south/east with lumber as I did a few years ago.

Any sources on the Canada pipeline lumber price connections and tarrifs?  I have read of more demand than expected since the big recession and day trading speculators.  Prices were in the 200 - 400 per 1k board feet, post covid economy shot up to over 1000.  Lot of paper mills closed post recession, also because of covid, and the market stayed  stable enough not to reopen.  What lumber tarrifs are you talking about I know the prior admin tried to tie it in with the soft wood kerfuffle and renogation of NAFTA.

[Guest]

@BigAl99 said:

@JimmyinSD said:

@Hawkvike25 said:

@AGRforever said:

@Hawkvike25 said:
California is on a different level when it comes to real estate, but home prices everywhere are on an uptick, especially new construction due to the material cost increase. I've seen some homes in the Iowa City area that sold for $385,000 in December and that same layout/house is now listed at $425,000. Hope these rookies take their time evaluating the market and give it a year or so before buying.

Right there is the crux of the stepped up cost basis argument happening right now.  The Biden administration wants to do away with the beneficiaries current ability to inherit something at the value as of the date of death.
Its being discussed as "taxing the rich" when in fact anyone who will inherit anything is probably effected by the potential change. 

What make it even more complicated with housing is how do you value what was "gain" and what was reinvestment into the property?  Did you put on a new deck? Or redo a kitchen?  How can one accurately value each transaction that was put into a house that if we're not going to have stepped up basis would certainly need to be deducted from the gains in said real property?

I'm not sure if the discussion of altering capital gains tax will have much to do with residential real estate. The main thing out there right now is the import tariff of lumber from Canada as that has really hammered builders on new construction. I think we if address that then we can see some relief on pricing

the lumbers tariffs were over 2 years ago,  and actually were slashed about 6 months ago,  I think this is more demand driven although I have heard that Canada has slowed lumber exports as retaliation for their pipeline being killed.   The real increases in lumber costs have actually come since the tariffs were slashed in December although they were starting to rise last year as covid put cash in peoples pockets and forced them to spend more time at home.  now with low interest rates and essentially most of the country a year behind in new home starts... its balls to the walls.  But I live close to a major interstate for lumber transport coming out of canada and I can say I dont see nearly as many lumber trucks and trains coming south/east with lumber as I did a few years ago.

Any sources on the Canada pipeline lumber price connections and tarrifs?  I have read of more demand than expected since the big recession and day trading speculators.  Prices were in the 200 - 400 per 1k board feet, post covid economy shot up to over 1000.  Lot of paper mills closed post recession, also because of covid, and the market stayed  stable enough not to reopen.  What lumber tarrifs are you talking about I know the prior admin tried to tie it in with the soft wood kerfuffle and renogation of NAFTA.

Here is what I read on the tarrifs,  the 20% was enacted back in 17 or 18,  we didn't really see the prices go crazy until 20 (summer of 20 IIRC),  and it was in December of 20 that they cut them to 9% but it doesn't seem to have had much effect which suggests that the tarrifs weren't as much as a driving factor as the demand or other influences.  The oil pipeline thing was just something I heard on the radio when I was driving...  I like to hit scan on AM and listen for a while....one day I listened to 3 hours of talk on fruit trees in northern  climates... must have been a slow news day. 

[Guest]

@JimmyinSD said:

@BigAl99 said:

@JimmyinSD said:

@Hawkvike25 said:

@AGRforever said:

@Hawkvike25 said:
California is on a different level when it comes to real estate, but home prices everywhere are on an uptick, especially new construction due to the material cost increase. I've seen some homes in the Iowa City area that sold for $385,000 in December and that same layout/house is now listed at $425,000. Hope these rookies take their time evaluating the market and give it a year or so before buying.

Right there is the crux of the stepped up cost basis argument happening right now.  The Biden administration wants to do away with the beneficiaries current ability to inherit something at the value as of the date of death.
Its being discussed as "taxing the rich" when in fact anyone who will inherit anything is probably effected by the potential change. 

What make it even more complicated with housing is how do you value what was "gain" and what was reinvestment into the property?  Did you put on a new deck? Or redo a kitchen?  How can one accurately value each transaction that was put into a house that if we're not going to have stepped up basis would certainly need to be deducted from the gains in said real property?

I'm not sure if the discussion of altering capital gains tax will have much to do with residential real estate. The main thing out there right now is the import tariff of lumber from Canada as that has really hammered builders on new construction. I think we if address that then we can see some relief on pricing

the lumbers tariffs were over 2 years ago,  and actually were slashed about 6 months ago,  I think this is more demand driven although I have heard that Canada has slowed lumber exports as retaliation for their pipeline being killed.   The real increases in lumber costs have actually come since the tariffs were slashed in December although they were starting to rise last year as covid put cash in peoples pockets and forced them to spend more time at home.  now with low interest rates and essentially most of the country a year behind in new home starts... its balls to the walls.  But I live close to a major interstate for lumber transport coming out of canada and I can say I dont see nearly as many lumber trucks and trains coming south/east with lumber as I did a few years ago.

Any sources on the Canada pipeline lumber price connections and tarrifs?  I have read of more demand than expected since the big recession and day trading speculators.  Prices were in the 200 - 400 per 1k board feet, post covid economy shot up to over 1000.  Lot of paper mills closed post recession, also because of covid, and the market stayed  stable enough not to reopen.  What lumber tarrifs are you talking about I know the prior admin tried to tie it in with the soft wood kerfuffle and renogation of NAFTA.

Here is what I read on the tarrifs,  the 20% was enacted back in 17 or 18,  we didn't really see the prices go crazy until 20 (summer of 20 IIRC),  and it was in December of 20 that they cut them to 9% but it doesn't seem to have had much effect which suggests that the tarrifs weren't as much as a driving factor as the demand or other influences.  The oil pipeline thing was just something I heard on the radio when I was driving...  I like to hit scan on AM and listen for a while....one day I listened to 3 hours of talk on fruit trees in northern  climates... must have been a slow news day. 

Oddly enough, I was on a webinar yesterday about the increased cost of construction over the last 9 months. Essentially what I was told was the lumber tariff paved the way and then covid was the icing on the cake. Essentially wood mills were shut down for some time and now they struggle with employees as they try to abide by the 6 feet rule when a lot of them need to work closer together. Pair that with folks being lazy by taking unemployment benefits instead of working and you have yourself a perfect storm.

The experts on this webinar said we have to get folks back to work, need to figure out some trade agreement with Canada, and need to ramp up production in these mills. It will take at least until 2022 before we see some relief. Crazy times!

[Guest]

Listened to a bloomberg Odd Lots podcast, on construction materials.  basically tied Canadian supply issues to the mills that survived the recession are very conservitive, low inventory, no excess capacity, slow to expand.  Coming from manufacturing environment, the 6 ft productivity issue can be solved, affects assembly operations more than mill, lower density of personell.  Labor is going to be expensive to solve, folks are going to be motivated with more money.  Companies invest in technology, not benifits, look at productivity of steel mills, 6 men do the work of what used to take 50, 20 years ago.

[Guest]

@BigAl99 said:

@JimmyinSD said:

@Hawkvike25 said:

@AGRforever said:

@Hawkvike25 said:
California is on a different level when it comes to real estate, but home prices everywhere are on an uptick, especially new construction due to the material cost increase. I've seen some homes in the Iowa City area that sold for $385,000 in December and that same layout/house is now listed at $425,000. Hope these rookies take their time evaluating the market and give it a year or so before buying.

Right there is the crux of the stepped up cost basis argument happening right now.  The Biden administration wants to do away with the beneficiaries current ability to inherit something at the value as of the date of death.
Its being discussed as "taxing the rich" when in fact anyone who will inherit anything is probably effected by the potential change. 

What make it even more complicated with housing is how do you value what was "gain" and what was reinvestment into the property?  Did you put on a new deck? Or redo a kitchen?  How can one accurately value each transaction that was put into a house that if we're not going to have stepped up basis would certainly need to be deducted from the gains in said real property?

I'm not sure if the discussion of altering capital gains tax will have much to do with residential real estate. The main thing out there right now is the import tariff of lumber from Canada as that has really hammered builders on new construction. I think we if address that then we can see some relief on pricing

the lumbers tariffs were over 2 years ago,  and actually were slashed about 6 months ago,  I think this is more demand driven although I have heard that Canada has slowed lumber exports as retaliation for their pipeline being killed.   The real increases in lumber costs have actually come since the tariffs were slashed in December although they were starting to rise last year as covid put cash in peoples pockets and forced them to spend more time at home.  now with low interest rates and essentially most of the country a year behind in new home starts... its balls to the walls.  But I live close to a major interstate for lumber transport coming out of canada and I can say I dont see nearly as many lumber trucks and trains coming south/east with lumber as I did a few years ago.

Any sources on the Canada pipeline lumber price connections and tarrifs?  I have read of more demand than expected since the big recession and day trading speculators.  Prices were in the 200 - 400 per 1k board feet, post covid economy shot up to over 1000.  Lot of paper mills closed post recession, also because of covid, and the market stayed  stable enough not to reopen.  What lumber tarrifs are you talking about I know the prior admin tried to tie it in with the soft wood kerfuffle and renogation of NAFTA.

cousin who lives on the ND/Canada border has said the same thing. 

[Guest]

We've got mills in western SD,  none of them closed until this spring,  I dont want to make this political,  but the forestry service changed some policies after the election and and thats when at least one mill decided to close their doors.  It sounds like the forestry service is going back to a let it lay policy and really curtailing any harvest on their land at all and that  is poor management imo as it will only lead to bigger and harder to fight forest fires with so much more dry fuel laying around.  Amd with the pine beetle,  there is a shit ton of dead timber in the black hills just waiting for a lightning strike or an errant cig butt. 

[Guest]

@JimmyinSD said:
We've got mills in western SD,  none of them closed until this spring,  I dont want to make this political,  but the forestry service changed some policies after the election and and thats when at least one mill decided to close their doors.  It sounds like the forestry service is going back to a let it lay policy and really curtailing any harvest on their land at all and that  is poor management imo as it will only lead to bigger and harder to fight forest fires with so much more dry fuel laying around.  Amd with the pine beetle,  there is a shit ton of dead timber in the black hills just waiting for a lightning strike or an errant cig butt. 

Have any forest fires out your way, or in lumber country in the NW?

[Guest]

@BigAl99 said:

@JimmyinSD said:
We've got mills in western SD,  none of them closed until this spring,  I dont want to make this political,  but the forestry service changed some policies after the election and and thats when at least one mill decided to close their doors.  It sounds like the forestry service is going back to a let it lay policy and really curtailing any harvest on their land at all and that  is poor management imo as it will only lead to bigger and harder to fight forest fires with so much more dry fuel laying around.  Amd with the pine beetle,  there is a shit ton of dead timber in the black hills just waiting for a lightning strike or an errant cig butt. 

Have any forest fires out your way, or in lumber country in the NW?

Its a little early in the season,  but wait for fire season or just talk to wild land fire fighters and ask them what they think of the policy.  the more dry  fuel that is left standing and laying in the forests...the more difficult any fire will be to get under control.  

Historically the earth clean itself of this stuff in a way that wouldn't be possible to allow in today's culture.  Fires would eat huge swaths of land on a regular basis but with our land use these days thats just not practical to allow so you can use the natural approach to land management.

Prescribed logging and ground clearing is a much safer and beneficial approach to forestry management .

[Guest]

@JimmyinSD said:

@BigAl99 said:

@JimmyinSD said:
We've got mills in western SD,  none of them closed until this spring,  I dont want to make this political,  but the forestry service changed some policies after the election and and thats when at least one mill decided to close their doors.  It sounds like the forestry service is going back to a let it lay policy and really curtailing any harvest on their land at all and that  is poor management imo as it will only lead to bigger and harder to fight forest fires with so much more dry fuel laying around.  Amd with the pine beetle,  there is a shit ton of dead timber in the black hills just waiting for a lightning strike or an errant cig butt. 

Have any forest fires out your way, or in lumber country in the NW?

Its a little early in the season,  but wait for fire season or just talk to wild land fire fighters and ask them what they think of the policy.  the more dry  fuel that is left standing and laying in the forests...the more difficult any fire will be to get under control.  

Historically the earth clean itself of this stuff in a way that wouldn't be possible to allow in today's culture.  Fires would eat huge swaths of land on a regular basis but with our land use these days thats just not practical to allow so you can use the natural approach to land management.

Prescribed logging and ground clearing is a much safer and beneficial approach to forestry management .

My father in law and brother in law had portions of their careers in the forestry service.  My wife’s Uncle manages tribal forests in Wash. State, there is a bit more to it than one answer,  Timing for fire control, harvest and forest health for sustainability have led to some vigorous discussions between them.  Then add some insects, disease, beer and bad football and you had a typical Thanksgiving at my in laws.  

[Guest]