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Well, well, well, its that time of year again with roughly a week until NFL free agency begins during the league's "legal tampering" period. Although I've historically done a few mock off-seasons in the past life is just too busy so this will likely be my only iteration. But trust me I put some thought into it and sourced some of the information included. I just won't tell you what is sourced and what is my own speculation. How nice of me! But without being too wordy lets get into it since you're not here to listen to me ramble:
Vikings Internal UFAs (Bolded Players are Resigned):
- Jaleel Johnson: Unfortunately Jaleel just hasn't been able to put things together consistently. Although I think the Vikings did a bit of a disservice playing him on the nose he likely is ready for a new opportunity.
- Hardy Nickerson: Coming into the season the Vikings looked to have nice LB depth. That all fell apart once Cam Smith needed heart surgery and Barr was injured. Hardy Nickerson won't have a huge market and can be brought back as the minimum $990K.
- Todd Davis: On film Davis actually filled in quite admirably for the Vikings. I wouldn't discount a return for a vet minimum but opted for Nickerson.
- Brett Jones: Although he has never had a consistent chance to earn snaps at guard, Jones is well liked within the organization and is a valuable backup at center. He is brought back using the vet minimum exception $987.5K
- George Iloka: Unfortunately Iloka tore his ACL early in the season. Although he should be healthy I opted to pass on bringing him back
- Dakota Dozier: He isn't nearly as bad as he played at LG this season but at best is a depth O-lineman. My hunch is they look elsewhere but wouldn't be shocked to see him back to compete for a depth spot in camp
- Ameer Abdullah: Near the end of the season Abdullah actually played quite well. But the Vikings need to re-invent their STs unit this off-season and Abdullah likely isn't in the long-term picture
- Sean Mannion: Its possible the Vikings spend an early draft pick but also think they trust Browning to fill-in if Kirk were to miss time. Mannion brings good perspective but likely doesn't need to be brought back
- Rashod Hill: Depending on how contract negotiations play out with Riley Reiff I do think the Vikings trust Hill to start on the blind-side. As a swing tackle he likely is out of their price range
- Eric Wilson: Similar to Rashod Hill, let's see how the market develops elsewhere on the roster. Do I think the Vikings are intrigued with keeping Wilson on a lower number than Barr? Yes. But it isn't they preferred approach.
- Anthony Harris: Tagging Harris was a shocker last off-season. The goal was to tag & trade him to the Giants and it just didn't work out. Harris has had a good run in MN but he deserves to be paid.
- Chad Beebe (RFA): Kubiak loves Beebe and he deserves a shot to compete if he can stay healthy. They can't pay him the RFA tender but he won't have a huge market. He's back at the minimum $920K
- Mike Boone (RFA): Similar to Beebe I don't think the Vikings will tender Boone. However they love him as their 3rd RB. My guess is they can get him back at the minimum $920K but its more 50/50 he finds more elsewhere
- Ifeadi Odenigbo (RFA): I initially thought they'd tender Ifeadi with a 2nd round designation but with the cap being so tight they might take their chances with the right of refusal tender of $2.133M. Will a team give him a long-term deal? Maybe. But the Vikings will have an ability to match it and the resigning of Stephen Weatherly gives them some protection if that were to happen.
- Chris Jones (ERFA): I don't think Jones will make the roster after his tackling performance in 2020, but for the minimum he at least deserves a roster spot going into camp.
Restructures, Cuts, and Key Decisions:
- Harrison Smith (Extension): It doesn't make sense for the Vikings to let Harrison Smith play out the remaining year of his contract. Instead they are able to lower his $10M cap number to $5.25M on a 4 year $40M extension with $18M in guarantees. This isn't elite safety money but pays him within the top 10. Cap hits of $5.25M & $9M in 2021/22 allow the Vikings some flexibility before making a real decision in 2023 when Smith turns 34.
- Riley Reiff (Extension): As easy as it is to say the Vikings should resign Riley Reiff the ball is really in his court. The Vikings can't bring him back at his current number so he can effectively choose to test FA if he would like. Although the Vikings have consistently tried to replace Reiff nearly cutting him before the 2020 season they work out a 4 year $48M extension with $20M in guarantees. This lowers Reiff's cap hit to $6.55M in 2021 and assures him a roster spot through the 2022 season. Ultimately I am unsure if Reiff will be back but no team was willing to pay his salary prior to the season so his market may not be as comprehensive as most think for a LT.
- Brian O'Neill (Extension): This won't happen until training camp but both O'Neill and the Vikings mutually want to get an extension done. a 5 year extension worth $65M ($13M/yr) pays O'Neill as a high-end RT. Such a deal only increments his cap number upwards by $3M in 2021 but locks him up through the 2026 season. He is one of the better OTs in the NFL and worth the money.
- Anthony Barr (No Change to his contract): The team and FO are kind of stuck between a rock and a hard place with Barr's contract. A simple bonus restructure makes his cost prohibitive in 2022 only buying you a year before having to make a decision on Barr again. The most ideal scenario is to convince Barr to turn $3M or so of his deal into an active roster incentive. Since he only played in 2 games this past season the majority of the money would be hidden as an "unlikely to be earned" incentive. More likely I think they bring Barr back at his current number knowing next season they have to make a real decision.
- Danielle Hunter (No Change to his contract): At some point Danielle is going to get a contract that pays him >$25M/yr. After the injury in 2020 the Vikings mutually agree to wait one more off-season. As an act of good faith the Vikings could bonus restructure to guarantee his money. That would open up cap for the Vikings in the process. But in this iteration I leave his deal as is. He will get paid by the Vikings its just a matter of time.
- Kyle Rudolph (Cut): Little late to the party here. Kyle is ready for his next big challenge and the Vikings have a great replacement in Irv Smith Jr.
- Shamar Stephen (Cut): We could see a restructure here, the coaching staff loves Shamar. But I think the team knows they need more of an interior pass rush to be effective.
- Britton Colquitt (Cut): New ST coordinator Ryan Ficken is going to have an opportunity to choose his specialists. Colquitt can't be back at his current cap number
- Dan Bailey (Cut): I don't think Dan Bailey is a bad kicker. My guess is the Vikings mutually agree to push his salary guarantee to the end of August. This gives him a chance to compete in camp.. or at least give the Vikings a chance to see who they could add in the draft
Unrestricted Free
Agency:
- Stephen Weatherly: A little late to the
party here as well. Initially I didn't believe the Vikings would bring
Weatherly back, but guess I am wrong. Similar to Ifeadi, Weatherly is a
unique pass rusher that can move across the line and continue to generate
pressure. I didn't think DE was as big of a need as the media. The Vikings
love to sub and bring pressure in waves. Weatherly does that an a rotation
of Hunter, Odenigbo, Weatherly, and Wonnum can get home.
- Shelby Harris: Although the Vikings can
"create" cap space through restructures, the truth is they
really can't when you look at the 2022 cap. So the Vikings are going to be
limited to one mid-tier FA signing and I personally think Harris would be
a fantastic choice. The Vikings missed their interior pass rush in 2020
and it killed the defense. Harris works well in a rotation and is a well
rounded lineman who makes the most of his opportunities. The Vikings offer
him a 3 year $22.5M deal with $12M in guarantees. A cap number of $4.5M in
2021 is very reasonable given the difference he'll bring.
- Lane Taylor: Ironically Lane Taylor's
most recent game was at US Bank Stadium.. in week 1 when he unfortunately
tore his ACL. When healthy Lane is a solid yet unspectacular guard. Due to
his more recent injuries he likely won't break the bank. The Vikings offer
a 1 year deal worth $1.5M with an additional $500K in active roster
incentives. However the cap number remains at $1.5M in 2021.
- Jamal Agnew: He won't be a threat at WR or
DB, but he is one of the best ST players in the NFC North. Although he's
had some recent issues with fumbling, Agnew is the best returner the
Vikings have rostered since Cordarelle Patterson. Although he will likely
sign for over the league minimum the Vikings grab him on a 1 year deal
worth $1.5M with $500K in guarantees.
- Tashaun Gipson: I don't think the Vikings are
ready to turn the safety position over to Josh Metelleus quite yet,
although they love his potential. Gipson is solid yet unspectacular and
can player both above the play as a pure FS, in-the box, and on the slot.
For the money (1 year vet minimum) he's some insurance and good
depth.
- Britton Colquitt: Surprise! Ok we cut Colquitt
and now we're bringing him back? Yes, at the vet minimum. There likely
isn't a huge market for big $ punters in a year with a decreasing salary
cap. So Colquitt returns to compete.
Mock Draft:
1(14) - 40% chance in my opinion that the Vikings
stay at this pick. They're not hell bent on picking up a 2nd round pick but to
them the value might end up making sense. In this mock they trade back with
Jacksonville to add 1(25) and their own 2nd round pick 2(45). What's in it for
Jacksonville? How does pairing Trevor Lawrence with Jaylen Waddle or DeVonta
Smith sound?
1 (25) via JAX - Jaycee Horn / CB South Carolina: Please be nice to me. Guessing most will see CB and
immediately dismiss the pick. The Vikings DB room is improving but is one piece
away. Jaycee Horn is the more physical presence Zimmer is missing in the
secondary. He honestly may in time end up being the best CB in this class if
drafted into the right system. The Vikings will end up drafting a CB in the
first 3 rounds giving them a trio of Dantzler/Horn on the outside with Gladney
in the slot. That could and more likely should allow the Vikings to develop
into one of the best secondary's in the NFL.
2(45) via JAX - Daviyon Nixon / DT Iowa: Although the DT class is a bit scarce the Vikings are able
to pick up the prospect with the highest upside to be an impact pass rusher in
the NFL. Nixon likely isn't ready to make an impact on day 1, he's too raw. But
if he can refine his technical skillset the explosiveness and athletic traits
will allow him to get after the passer consistently.
Rd 3 - Trey Smith / OG Tennessee: Smith's healthy (blood clots in the lungs) will end up
dictating his draft stock. But as a prospect he could easily be a day 1 starter
at guard in the NFL. His size and athletic traits will allow him the ability to
easily adapt to the NFL game. Although the Vikings add Lane Taylor in FA this
is some strong competition coming into camp.
Rd 3 - Paris Ford / SS Pittsburgh: Going into the season Ford was considered a late 1st round
pick. This past season he was incredibly inconsistent and teams nit-picked the
evaluation. Ford is good to above average at everything but a master of none.
He is the type of safety the Vikings tend to covet as he can player both SS
& FS effectively along with run blitz. He may need a bit of time before
starting but his ceiling is high for a 3rd round prospect.
4 (105) via HOU - Elijah Moore / WR Ole Miss: The Vikings double-down on return threats here and add a
potential impact slot receiver in the process. Moore creates problems when he
get into space, Adam Thielen & Justin Jefferson will make that a heck of a
lot easier in the NFL. The Vikings need to trade up a few slots in the 4th to
make this realistic.
4 - Trade to HOU for 4 (105)
4 - Tarron Jackson / DE Coastal Carolina: He looks the part of an NFL pass rusher but
needs to be reigned in at the next level. If you painted a picture of what
Andre Patterson looks for in a prospect, this is it. The Vikings scouted him on
multiple occasions.
5 - Garrett Wallow / LB TCU: Although the Vikings retain Anthony Barr
in this mock off-season, LB is still a massive need. In the base front the
Vikings likely are either relying on Troy Dye or a rookie. Wallow is a
converted safety who needs to continue adding strength but projects as a +
coverage LB in the NFL. He's very similar to Eric Wilson's skill-set if he can
adapt to the speed of the NFL.
4 - Trade to HOU for 4 (105)
5 - With so much depth already on the roster the
Vikings use one of their picks in round 5 and flip it forward to 2022 adding a
4th.
5 - Jose Borregales / K Miami: Greg Joseph is good competition for Dan Bailey but I could
see the Vikings spending another draft pick on a kicker. Many scouts/analysts
deem McPherson to be the best kicker in this class, there are plenty who prefer
Borregales.
6 - Ryan McCollum / OG Texas A&M: Vikings double-up on interior O-lineman to
continue building depth. McCollum gets dinged for his lack of play strength but
he almost always hits his targets at the next level. Teams who play in the
stretch-zone offense are going to love him as a late round speculative add.
7 - James Smith / P Cincinnati: A kicker and a punter? I guess. The Vikings need
to rebuild their STs unit from the ground up.
Camp Depth Chart:
QB - Kirk Cousins / Jake Browning / Nate Stanley
RB - Dalvin Cook / Alexander Mattison / Mike Boone / CJ Marable
FB - CJ Ham / Jake Bargas
TE - Irv Smith Jr. / Tyler Conklin / Hale Hentges / Brandon Dillon
WR - Justin Jefferson / Adam Thielen / Bisi Johnson / Jamal Agnew / Dan Chisena
SLOT WR - Chad Beebe / Elijah Moore / K.J. Osbourne
LT - Riley Reiff / Blake Brandel
LG - Lane Taylor / Trey Smith / Zack Bailey
C - Garrett Bradbury / Brett Jones
RG - Ezra Cleveland / Kyle Hinton / Ryan McCollum / Dru Samia
RT - Brian O'Neill / Oli Udoh
DE - Danielle Hunter / Ifeadi Odenigbo / Stephen Weatherly / DJ Wonnum / Tarron Jackson / Hercules Mata'Afa / Jalyn Holmes / Jordan Brailford / Kenny Willekes
DT - Shelby Harris / Michael Pierce / Daviyon Nixon / Armon Watts / James Lynch
LB - Eric Kendricks / Anthony Barr / Troy Dye / Cameron Smith / Garrett Wallow / Hardy Nickerson Jr. / Ryan Connelly / Blake Lynch
CB - Cameron Dantzler / Jaycee Horn / Kris Boys / Chris Jones / Condrea Tankersley / Tae Hayes
SLOT CB - Jeff Gladney / Mike Hughes / Harrison Hand / Dylan Maybin
S - Harrison Smith / Tashaun Gipson / Josh Metellus / Paris Ford / Myles Dorn / Luther Kirk
Specialists: Jose Borregales / Greg Joseph / James Smith / Britton Colquitt / Andrew DePaola
Really interesting as always and thanks for the details.
Biggest surprise to me is the projection to cut Mannion. I'm hardly a huge fan, but my impression has been that the team likes a vet backup and wouldn't put the job in the hands of a player who has never thrown a regular-season NFL pass. But maybe they will find someone more experienced on the waiver wire?
Thank you for considerable time and effort - as always.
Now I am going to Best Buy and shop for a new tv.
Draft: - If we do pick a CB #1...I do like Horn.
- Daviyon Nixon: I actually like Jay Tufele for 3T a bit more.
- Trey Smith: Interesting...athletic enough?
- Good picks in Parris Ford and Elijah Moore.
- Two kickers......okay. I think they rebuild by grabbing 2 of the best UDFA guys after the draft AT EACH POSITION and let them fight it out. When we draft one player at a specialist position, they seem to be "anointed" to win the job. Make them earn it.
Thanks again!
I've seen enough of Horn to think he'll do really well at the next level, but damn, this is a TV buster of a pick for me. I'd probably be speaking in tongues, might even spontaneously combust.
If O'Neill took that deal he'd be leaving a ton of money on the table. EDIT- Actually, this is pretty much in line, depending on the structure.
Smith might be far too risky on the medical.
Ford and Moore are my favorite picks along with Nixon.
I think we grab a TE in the draft
As always, an enjoyable read.
Lol I was kind of joking when I said that they would take a CB in the first round but maybe I was actually preparing myself for it. Glad to see a couple of guards and a wide receiver in there though. A kicker and a punter because of course. Really hope there are some hits on both offense and defense.
This would be a definite tv breaker for me as well. I just think we have spent enough draft capital and development time at the CB position where we sink or swim with the guys we have. Even if Mike Hughes doesn't come back fully we still have Dantzler, Gladney, Hand and Kris Boyd who all played well in stretches behind the worst defensive line in football generating zero pass rush. I could see spending one of our numerous mid round picks on a corner...but certainly not with our first round pick. I just think you have to go defensive line with that pick.
I've soured on Nixon a bit, but maybe it's that Jaleel Johnson Hawkeye after taste that has me a little more skeptical.
I like Trey Smith, but the health issues and is he a great scheme fit for us might have me shy away.
No Tommy Tremble? Come on Guru! 
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