Quote: @JimmyinSD said:
@ Jor-El said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@ PurpleCrush said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@ PurpleCrush said:
@ Jor-El said:
@ supafreak84 said:
@ Carl Knowles said:
@ MaroonBells I agree. I hope Odenigbo comes backs.. but I can see another team giving up a 7th round pick and 1.5M to 2.5M for a low end starter.
Because Odenigbo didn't have the success I expected this season (3.5 sacks 3 TFL),.. it kind of hurts the Vikings ability to protect him IMO. Hercules Mata'afa (who moved to DE) and Jordan Bailford (who was added to the roster late in the year) both earned higher PFF grades than Odenigbo.
Depth at DE isn't an issue, we have D.J. Wonnum, Jalyn Holmes, Kenny Willekes, Hercules and Bailford.
Regardless of Odenigbo's return or not, the Vikings must add a blue-chip edge rusher via the draft. I would take Rousseau a 14 and then try to trade up into the 2nd rd for DT Daviyon Nixon or DT Alim McNeill.
Where is the draft at right now?... I think it's safe to say the rush for the DT class will probably not start until after the top 3 or 4 edge guys come off the board.
Daniel Jeremiah (a former NFL scout) has edge guys like Gregory Rousseau, Kwitty Paye, Jaelen Phillips and Jayson Owen all ranked higher than Barmore and Nixon.
https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah...nkings-1-0
I'm not as high on Rousseau, and certainly not Paye as some others. I just think when it comes to impact getting a legitimate 3 technique to compliment the pieces already coming back does more for this team then any other position and you know Zimmer is going to be pounding the table to reboot this defense. To me Eric Kendricks was in the conversation for defensive player of the year prior to injury with Stephen and Johnson as his front. Can you imagine what he does getting Pierce in their along with say a Christian Barmore? I would certainly place Barmore's upside probably higher then most of those edge guys outside of Phillips
I agree with you in large part, but I think you highlighted the issue with Barmore: "I would certainly place Barmore's upside probably higher then most of those edge guys". Upside eventually, but what will he be contributing in 2021? I actually see him as a prospect much like Kevin Williams: enormous potential that probably won't be realized for a year or two. Drop him into the starting lineup on day 1 and there will probably be some mistakes, not necessarily an immediate defensive upgrade.
Funny, that's a comparison I've made before when looking at Barmore. KWill was more dynamic, and actually started out as a DE, but I think eventually Barmore could be a Kevin Williams-light type of player, especially playing in between Hunter and Pierce.
not to take away from KWill, but I would expect a first round pick to be as good or better considering he would be playing next to an All Pro DE and what is supposed to be an upper tier DT. I would expect a middle of the road guy to look pretty rock solid between Hunter and Pierce, but I wouldnt take a middle of the road guy with the #14 pick. If Barmore isnt viewed as a KWill or better type player than he shouldnt be the pick at 14 IMO.
KWill is a borderline HOF player. I'm not ready to bestow that on any kid who hasn't played a down in the league just yet. Just from watching him this past season this kid reminds me a bit of KWill, and even if he ends up being a slightly lesser type player that would still be a homerun pick, at least in my eyes.
KWill being the high side for a first rounder that gets to play off of Hunter and Pierce isnt good enough. A player taken at 14 needs to be viewed as having a greater impact than KWill if he gets to play between Hunter and Pierce (assuming Hunter comes back as good as pre injury, and Pierce is close to as good as some profess he will be.) you say KWill light... I say he better be as big of an impact if not bigger considering what hes got around him.
I don't think that is a fair expectation, you're only going to be disappointed. K-Will was one of the best DTs in the league during his prime years. Barmore is a redshirt sophmore who has started only a handful of games and needs A TON of technical refinement. High ceiling but you're not going to get a year 1 impact player.
KWill wasnt KWill year one, but I am saying if you use that #14 pick on a DT, you should expect KWill, for his career, at a minimum considering the caliber of players he is platooned with. Anything short of that and we should be looking at other players/positions for a top of his position in his prime type of player.
I think you have very high optimism about the 14th overall pick. Last year it was Javon Kinlaw and he had 1.5 sacks as a rookie for the 49ers. Are you expecting all our 1st-rounders to start as well as Jefferson did?
I'm just saying something like Geoff - Barmore has high future upside, but not necessarily instant productivity, no matter who he lines up between.
I expect them to identify a future stud and to target him. From 14 we can realistically look at anything outside the top 7 and likely make a deal to move up and get our guy. This team doesn't often draft in the top 20 so when we do IMO we need to get that top tier player and not just another nice career guy.
Except this draft doesn't appear to be one of those drafts, where there's a big drop off after the top, say, 10. Without the 2nd rounder, moving up more than one or two spots will be difficult. More to the point: unnecessary. A lot to be decided between now and then, but if we stay at 14, one of the kind of players you're hoping for will fall to us. It's just math. In fact, I would say that there will be several to choose from, likely including most of the following: Slater, AVT, Darrisaw, Barmore, Paye, Rousseau and one or two of the top WRs.
Quote: @MaroonBells said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@ Jor-El said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@ PurpleCrush said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@ PurpleCrush said:
@ Jor-El said:
@ supafreak84 said:
@ Carl Knowles said:
@ MaroonBells I agree. I hope Odenigbo comes backs.. but I can see another team giving up a 7th round pick and 1.5M to 2.5M for a low end starter.
Because Odenigbo didn't have the success I expected this season (3.5 sacks 3 TFL),.. it kind of hurts the Vikings ability to protect him IMO. Hercules Mata'afa (who moved to DE) and Jordan Bailford (who was added to the roster late in the year) both earned higher PFF grades than Odenigbo.
Depth at DE isn't an issue, we have D.J. Wonnum, Jalyn Holmes, Kenny Willekes, Hercules and Bailford.
Regardless of Odenigbo's return or not, the Vikings must add a blue-chip edge rusher via the draft. I would take Rousseau a 14 and then try to trade up into the 2nd rd for DT Daviyon Nixon or DT Alim McNeill.
Where is the draft at right now?... I think it's safe to say the rush for the DT class will probably not start until after the top 3 or 4 edge guys come off the board.
Daniel Jeremiah (a former NFL scout) has edge guys like Gregory Rousseau, Kwitty Paye, Jaelen Phillips and Jayson Owen all ranked higher than Barmore and Nixon.
https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah...nkings-1-0
I'm not as high on Rousseau, and certainly not Paye as some others. I just think when it comes to impact getting a legitimate 3 technique to compliment the pieces already coming back does more for this team then any other position and you know Zimmer is going to be pounding the table to reboot this defense. To me Eric Kendricks was in the conversation for defensive player of the year prior to injury with Stephen and Johnson as his front. Can you imagine what he does getting Pierce in their along with say a Christian Barmore? I would certainly place Barmore's upside probably higher then most of those edge guys outside of Phillips
I agree with you in large part, but I think you highlighted the issue with Barmore: "I would certainly place Barmore's upside probably higher then most of those edge guys". Upside eventually, but what will he be contributing in 2021? I actually see him as a prospect much like Kevin Williams: enormous potential that probably won't be realized for a year or two. Drop him into the starting lineup on day 1 and there will probably be some mistakes, not necessarily an immediate defensive upgrade.
Funny, that's a comparison I've made before when looking at Barmore. KWill was more dynamic, and actually started out as a DE, but I think eventually Barmore could be a Kevin Williams-light type of player, especially playing in between Hunter and Pierce.
not to take away from KWill, but I would expect a first round pick to be as good or better considering he would be playing next to an All Pro DE and what is supposed to be an upper tier DT. I would expect a middle of the road guy to look pretty rock solid between Hunter and Pierce, but I wouldnt take a middle of the road guy with the #14 pick. If Barmore isnt viewed as a KWill or better type player than he shouldnt be the pick at 14 IMO.
KWill is a borderline HOF player. I'm not ready to bestow that on any kid who hasn't played a down in the league just yet. Just from watching him this past season this kid reminds me a bit of KWill, and even if he ends up being a slightly lesser type player that would still be a homerun pick, at least in my eyes.
KWill being the high side for a first rounder that gets to play off of Hunter and Pierce isnt good enough. A player taken at 14 needs to be viewed as having a greater impact than KWill if he gets to play between Hunter and Pierce (assuming Hunter comes back as good as pre injury, and Pierce is close to as good as some profess he will be.) you say KWill light... I say he better be as big of an impact if not bigger considering what hes got around him.
I don't think that is a fair expectation, you're only going to be disappointed. K-Will was one of the best DTs in the league during his prime years. Barmore is a redshirt sophmore who has started only a handful of games and needs A TON of technical refinement. High ceiling but you're not going to get a year 1 impact player.
KWill wasnt KWill year one, but I am saying if you use that #14 pick on a DT, you should expect KWill, for his career, at a minimum considering the caliber of players he is platooned with. Anything short of that and we should be looking at other players/positions for a top of his position in his prime type of player.
I think you have very high optimism about the 14th overall pick. Last year it was Javon Kinlaw and he had 1.5 sacks as a rookie for the 49ers. Are you expecting all our 1st-rounders to start as well as Jefferson did?
I'm just saying something like Geoff - Barmore has high future upside, but not necessarily instant productivity, no matter who he lines up between.
I expect them to identify a future stud and to target him. From 14 we can realistically look at anything outside the top 7 and likely make a deal to move up and get our guy. This team doesn't often draft in the top 20 so when we do IMO we need to get that top tier player and not just another nice career guy.
Except this draft doesn't appear to be one of those drafts, where there's a big drop off after the top, say, 10. Without the 2nd rounder, moving up more than one or two spots will be difficult. More to the point: unnecessary. A lot to be decided between now and then, but if we stay at 14, one of the kind of players you're hoping for will fall to us. It's just math. In fact, I would say that there will be several to choose from, likely including most of the following: Slater, AVT, Darrisaw, Barmore, Paye, Rousseau and one or two of the top WRs.
take it up with Jor -el, he says I am asking for to much at 14. I am not up at all on this years draft so I will let you guys fight it out, I just want a stud that will contend for the probowl every year ( legitly contend, not back in after the rest of the league opts out) we should be able to find that guy in the 7-10 range and thats only giving up a 3rd and 4th if needed to get there... unless as you say other positions get hog piled and that forces some studs to drop. we can find "nice" players in the high teens and 20s where we normally draft, I want to see another stud added if we can find one at an impact position and if they allowed us to move on from a bad contract then giddy up.... if DT and OL isnt in the cards, what have you got for me in a linebacker?
Quote: @JimmyinSD said:
@ MaroonBells said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@ Jor-El said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
I don't think that is a fair expectation, you're only going to be disappointed. K-Will was one of the best DTs in the league during his prime years. Barmore is a redshirt sophmore who has started only a handful of games and needs A TON of technical refinement. High ceiling but you're not going to get a year 1 impact player.
KWill wasnt KWill year one, but I am saying if you use that #14 pick on a DT, you should expect KWill, for his career, at a minimum considering the caliber of players he is platooned with. Anything short of that and we should be looking at other players/positions for a top of his position in his prime type of player.
I think you have very high optimism about the 14th overall pick. Last year it was Javon Kinlaw and he had 1.5 sacks as a rookie for the 49ers. Are you expecting all our 1st-rounders to start as well as Jefferson did?
I'm just saying something like Geoff - Barmore has high future upside, but not necessarily instant productivity, no matter who he lines up between.
I expect them to identify a future stud and to target him. From 14 we can realistically look at anything outside the top 7 and likely make a deal to move up and get our guy. This team doesn't often draft in the top 20 so when we do IMO we need to get that top tier player and not just another nice career guy.
Except this draft doesn't appear to be one of those drafts, where there's a big drop off after the top, say, 10. Without the 2nd rounder, moving up more than one or two spots will be difficult. More to the point: unnecessary. A lot to be decided between now and then, but if we stay at 14, one of the kind of players you're hoping for will fall to us. It's just math. In fact, I would say that there will be several to choose from, likely including most of the following: Slater, AVT, Darrisaw, Barmore, Paye, Rousseau and one or two of the top WRs.
take it up with Jor -el, he says I am asking for to much at 14. I am not up at all on this years draft so I will let you guys fight it out, I just want a stud that will contend for the probowl every year ( legitly contend, not back in after the rest of the league opts out) we should be able to find that guy in the 7-10 range and thats only giving up a 3rd and 4th if needed to get there... unless as you say other positions get hog piled and that forces some studs to drop. we can find "nice" players in the high teens and 20s where we normally draft, I want to see another stud added if we can find one at an impact position and if they allowed us to move on from a bad contract then giddy up.... if DT and OL isnt in the cards, what have you got for me in a linebacker?
Well, I said we might have to be happy with a player like Kevin Williams, and that someone like him (thinking of DT Christian Barmore specifically) could EVENTUALLY be a multi-year stud, but take a year or two to realize that potential.
I don't think we can assume the 14th pick will be both an instant starter and a dominant All-Pro. Those guys are gone in the top 10, often top 5. Do you sometimes get both? Sure - we got Moss, and it looks like Jefferson could be one of those as well. I'll add Randall McDaniel, picked 19th in 1988. (Not Adrian Peterson because he was the 7th overall.) That's 3 guys in 40 years we picked after the top 10 who were instant starters and dominant at their position long-term (hopefully in the case of Jefferson).
I think it's more common to get either someone with very high potential but not quite ready to excel at the NFL level (Trae Waynes, Xavier Rhodes), OR someone who is NFL-ready but has a limited ceiling (Garrett Bradbury, Chad Greenway). This year, Alijah Vera-Tucker could be an instant starter but never dominate the league, while Barmore might sit on the bench as a rookie and turn into a star in 2022 or 2023.
Quote: @Jor-El said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@ MaroonBells said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@ Jor-El said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
I don't think that is a fair expectation, you're only going to be disappointed. K-Will was one of the best DTs in the league during his prime years. Barmore is a redshirt sophmore who has started only a handful of games and needs A TON of technical refinement. High ceiling but you're not going to get a year 1 impact player.
KWill wasnt KWill year one, but I am saying if you use that #14 pick on a DT, you should expect KWill, for his career, at a minimum considering the caliber of players he is platooned with. Anything short of that and we should be looking at other players/positions for a top of his position in his prime type of player.
I think you have very high optimism about the 14th overall pick. Last year it was Javon Kinlaw and he had 1.5 sacks as a rookie for the 49ers. Are you expecting all our 1st-rounders to start as well as Jefferson did?
I'm just saying something like Geoff - Barmore has high future upside, but not necessarily instant productivity, no matter who he lines up between.
I expect them to identify a future stud and to target him. From 14 we can realistically look at anything outside the top 7 and likely make a deal to move up and get our guy. This team doesn't often draft in the top 20 so when we do IMO we need to get that top tier player and not just another nice career guy.
Except this draft doesn't appear to be one of those drafts, where there's a big drop off after the top, say, 10. Without the 2nd rounder, moving up more than one or two spots will be difficult. More to the point: unnecessary. A lot to be decided between now and then, but if we stay at 14, one of the kind of players you're hoping for will fall to us. It's just math. In fact, I would say that there will be several to choose from, likely including most of the following: Slater, AVT, Darrisaw, Barmore, Paye, Rousseau and one or two of the top WRs.
take it up with Jor -el, he says I am asking for to much at 14. I am not up at all on this years draft so I will let you guys fight it out, I just want a stud that will contend for the probowl every year ( legitly contend, not back in after the rest of the league opts out) we should be able to find that guy in the 7-10 range and thats only giving up a 3rd and 4th if needed to get there... unless as you say other positions get hog piled and that forces some studs to drop. we can find "nice" players in the high teens and 20s where we normally draft, I want to see another stud added if we can find one at an impact position and if they allowed us to move on from a bad contract then giddy up.... if DT and OL isnt in the cards, what have you got for me in a linebacker?
Well, I said we might have to be happy with a player like Kevin Williams, and that someone like him (thinking of DT Christian Barmore specifically) could EVENTUALLY be a multi-year stud, but take a year or two to realize that potential.
I don't think we can assume the 14th pick will be both an instant starter and a dominant All-Pro. Those guys are gone in the top 10, often top 5. Do you sometimes get both? Sure - we got Moss, and it looks like Jefferson could be one of those as well. I'll add Randall McDaniel, picked 19th in 1988. (Not Adrian Peterson because he was the 7th overall.) That's 3 guys in 40 years we picked after the top 10 who were instant starters and dominant at their position long-term (hopefully in the case of Jefferson).
I think it's more common to get either someone with very high potential but not quite ready to excel at the NFL level (Trae Waynes, Xavier Rhodes), OR someone who is NFL-ready but has a limited ceiling (Garrett Bradbury, Chad Greenway). This year, Alijah Vera-Tucker could be an instant starter but never dominate the league, while Barmore might sit on the bench as a rookie and turn into a star in 2022 or 2023.
You're forgetting what a crap shoot the draft is. 1/3 to half of the top 10 will be busts. That percentage doesn't really go up much as you get further down the 1st round. A little, but not as much as you would think.
Jefferson at 22 was better than all four receivers taken ahead of him. Aiyuk (25), Higgins (33) and Claypool (49) were better than three of them. AJ Terrell at 16 was better than Okudah at 3. Winfield (45) was better than all four of the safeties taken ahead of him.
Now, these are all rookies and a lot of football is yet to be played, but this is not unusual. Go back 5 years, 10 years...doesn't matter. Having a pick in the top 10 as opposed to, say, 10-20, obviously increases your chance of hitting, but nowhere near as much as you would think based on the perceived value assigned to them by NFL teams.
What's more, every draft is different. You can always point to tiers and clusters and drop offs in talent, and this draft in particular is very strong in the 10-20 range, especially among our positions of need, as much of the top 10 will be dominated by QBs, CBs and WRs. At 14 we could very feasibly have our choice among the OT2, DT1, DE1 and G1. Right now, the only player I would consider moving up for is Sewell, and only then if he falls to the 10-12 range, which is unlikely.
Quote: @MaroonBells said:
@ Jor-El said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@ MaroonBells said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@ Jor-El said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
I don't think that is a fair expectation, you're only going to be disappointed. K-Will was one of the best DTs in the league during his prime years. Barmore is a redshirt sophmore who has started only a handful of games and needs A TON of technical refinement. High ceiling but you're not going to get a year 1 impact player.
KWill wasnt KWill year one, but I am saying if you use that #14 pick on a DT, you should expect KWill, for his career, at a minimum considering the caliber of players he is platooned with. Anything short of that and we should be looking at other players/positions for a top of his position in his prime type of player.
I think you have very high optimism about the 14th overall pick. Last year it was Javon Kinlaw and he had 1.5 sacks as a rookie for the 49ers. Are you expecting all our 1st-rounders to start as well as Jefferson did?
I'm just saying something like Geoff - Barmore has high future upside, but not necessarily instant productivity, no matter who he lines up between.
I expect them to identify a future stud and to target him. From 14 we can realistically look at anything outside the top 7 and likely make a deal to move up and get our guy. This team doesn't often draft in the top 20 so when we do IMO we need to get that top tier player and not just another nice career guy.
Except this draft doesn't appear to be one of those drafts, where there's a big drop off after the top, say, 10. Without the 2nd rounder, moving up more than one or two spots will be difficult. More to the point: unnecessary. A lot to be decided between now and then, but if we stay at 14, one of the kind of players you're hoping for will fall to us. It's just math. In fact, I would say that there will be several to choose from, likely including most of the following: Slater, AVT, Darrisaw, Barmore, Paye, Rousseau and one or two of the top WRs.
take it up with Jor -el, he says I am asking for to much at 14. I am not up at all on this years draft so I will let you guys fight it out, I just want a stud that will contend for the probowl every year ( legitly contend, not back in after the rest of the league opts out) we should be able to find that guy in the 7-10 range and thats only giving up a 3rd and 4th if needed to get there... unless as you say other positions get hog piled and that forces some studs to drop. we can find "nice" players in the high teens and 20s where we normally draft, I want to see another stud added if we can find one at an impact position and if they allowed us to move on from a bad contract then giddy up.... if DT and OL isnt in the cards, what have you got for me in a linebacker?
Well, I said we might have to be happy with a player like Kevin Williams, and that someone like him (thinking of DT Christian Barmore specifically) could EVENTUALLY be a multi-year stud, but take a year or two to realize that potential.
I don't think we can assume the 14th pick will be both an instant starter and a dominant All-Pro. Those guys are gone in the top 10, often top 5. Do you sometimes get both? Sure - we got Moss, and it looks like Jefferson could be one of those as well. I'll add Randall McDaniel, picked 19th in 1988. (Not Adrian Peterson because he was the 7th overall.) That's 3 guys in 40 years we picked after the top 10 who were instant starters and dominant at their position long-term (hopefully in the case of Jefferson).
I think it's more common to get either someone with very high potential but not quite ready to excel at the NFL level (Trae Waynes, Xavier Rhodes), OR someone who is NFL-ready but has a limited ceiling (Garrett Bradbury, Chad Greenway). This year, Alijah Vera-Tucker could be an instant starter but never dominate the league, while Barmore might sit on the bench as a rookie and turn into a star in 2022 or 2023.
You're forgetting what a crap shoot the draft is. 1/3 to half of the top 10 will be busts. That percentage doesn't really go up much as you get further down the 1st round. A little, but not as much as you would think.
Jefferson at 22 was better than all four receivers taken ahead of him. Aiyuk (25), Higgins (33) and Claypool (49) were better than three of them. AJ Terrell at 16 was better than Okudah at 3. Winfield (45) was better than all four of the safeties taken ahead of him.
Now, these are all rookies and a lot of football is yet to be played, but this is not unusual. Go back 5 years, 10 years...doesn't matter. Having a pick in the top 10 as opposed to, say, 10-20, obviously increases your chance of hitting, but nowhere near as much as you would think based on the perceived value assigned to them by NFL teams.
What's more, every draft is different. You can always point to tiers and clusters and drop offs in talent, and this draft in particular is very strong in the 10-20 range, especially among our positions of need, as much of the top 10 will be dominated by QBs, CBs and WRs. At 14 we could very feasibly have our choice among the OT2, DT1, DE1 and G1. Right now, the only player I would consider moving up for is Sewell, and only then if he falls to the 10-12 range, which is unlikely.
No, I remember and agree - draft picks are gambles, and that's part of what I was expressing: we can't "count on" a draft pick, whether it's in the teens or even top 10, to step in and fill a hole. It's a big reason I thought we lost the Diggs trade - we gave up someone who had proven he could excel in the NFL in exchange for a throw of the dice. Delighted it worked, but I think people now expect that draft success "guaranteed".
Just want to chime in and say Kevin Williams was awesome. If we get a player even close to that caliber we should be kissing Rick's feet.
Kalil (bust), Barr (solid), Waynes (solid) have all been recent early picks off the top of my head. None can touch KWill's impact but I wouldn't call the Barr or Waynes picks bad by any means. KWill is a very high bar.
... It all worked out but I do still grimace when I remember us being on the clock and not making a pick though. Sad!
Just to clarify, in this thread the comparison starred out as KwIll light, as in similar, but not as good. Of course if we found a player that met KWills production that would be ecstatic. What I am saying is a top half of the first round should not be targeting a lesser version of a pretty good but not HOF, player. The bar should be expecting more, even if they don't work out, at least shoot for that higher bar instead of settling for " pretty good light"
Speaking of Kevin Williams....brings up a draft day memory. Was anybody else beyond pissed that we passed on Terrell Suggs that year? I know I was, but Williams turned out to be a great player for us for a very long time.
Quote: @supafreak84 said:
Speaking of Kevin Williams....brings up a draft day memory. Was anybody else beyond pissed that we passed on Terrell Suggs that year? I know I was, but Williams turned out to be a great player for us for a very long time.
Well...I was certainly beyond pissed when we passed on EVERYONE at the #7 pick. And passed again. Has any other team EVER done that, just skipped their pick to save money??
I did like Suggs also. But I also thought we should pick DT Jimmy Kennedy from Penn State instead of Williams, so what do I know?
Quote: @supafreak84 said:
Speaking of Kevin Williams....brings up a draft day memory. Was anybody else beyond pissed that we passed on Terrell Suggs that year? I know I was, but Williams turned out to be a great player for us for a very long time.
Yep. I was so pissed. All worked out.
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