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MaroonBells · 01-25-2021, 03:22 PM

THE LABOR:The 2020 salary cap was $198M. NFL set a floor of $175M for 2021, but many are saying that it won’t be that low, especially if they add a 17th game. Some estimating it could be as high as $195. For the purpose of this exercise, I’ll split the difference and say $185M. The Vikings, currently at $189M, would be $4M over that cap.
Players under contract released:Shamar Stephen - Savings: $4M Dan Bailey (post June 1) - Savings: $3M Kyle Rudolph (post June 1) - Savings: $8M (tally: $11M under)
Players under contract restructured:Harrison Smith - Savings $2M Anthony Barr - Savings $2M (tally: $15M under)
Players under contract extended: Riley Reiff - Savings: $0M Danielle Hunter - Savings $2M (tally: $17M under)
UFA players resigned:Todd Davis, LB, Vikings: $1M (tally: $16M under)
UFA players of significance not resigned: Anthony Harris, Eric Wilson, Dakota Dozier, Ameer Abdullah, Sean Mannion, Jaleel Johnson
ERFA and RFA players of significance tendered: Ifeadi Odenigbo, Mike Boone, Chad Beebe, Chris Jones
External free agents signed:Sheldon Rankins, 3T, 26 yo, Saints: $8MLane Taylor, RG, 31 yo, Packers: $3M (tally: $5M left for draft)
3T is the Vikings most urgent need and there are only two in the draft worthy of a 1st round pick. Can we risk going into the draft needing one to fall to us? Rankins is a former 1st rounder who’s had a series of injuries that should keep his price down and the Saints, in cap hell, will not be able to resign him. Same with Taylor. He’s been hurt both of the last two seasons. Packers will focus on their other FA guard, Corey Linsley. Both are injury risks that should come seriously discounted. But, if healthy, both could be home runs.

THE BABY:Vikings will trade down from 14 into the 20s, pick up a 2nd and a 3rd, then use several of their extra picks to trade back into round one.
OL: 10LT: Riley Reiff, Blake BrandelLG: Ezra Cleveland, Alijah Vera Tucker (D1b)C: Garrett Bradbury, Kyle HintonRG: Lane Taylor (FA2), Dru SamiaRT: Brian O’Neill, Oli Udoh
SKILL: 14QB: Kirk Cousins, Kellen Mond (D5)RB: Dalvin Cook, Alexander Mattison, Michael BooneFB: CJ HamWR: Justin Jefferson, Bisi JohnsonWR: Adam Thielen, Jaelen Darden (D4), Beebe, TE: Irv Smith Jr, Tyler Conklin, Hale Hentges
DL: 10LDE: Danielle Hunter, Ifeadi OdenigboNT: Michael Pierce, Armon Watts3T: Sheldon Rankins (FA1), James Lynch, Herc Mata’afaRDE: Jaelan Phillips (D1a after trade down for 2nd), DJ Wonnum, Kenny Willekes
LB: 6SLB: Anthony Barr, Blake LynchMLB: Eric Kendricks, Cameron SmithWLB: Todd Davis, Troy Dye
DB: 10CB: Jeff Gladney, Chris JonesCB: Cam Dantzler, Kris BoydCB: Mike Hughes, Harrison HandS: Harrison Smith, Myles DornS: Caden Sterns (D3), Josh Metellus
ST: 3LS: Andrew DepaolaK: Jose Borregales (D6)P: Britton Colquit

If we can pull it off, this puts the Vikings in Super Bowl contention in '21.

01-25-2021, 03:58 PM

I do agree we will drop down

01-25-2021, 04:13 PM

I like what you did overall. You obviously fill the right "needs" and get good value in doing so.

Would be a little careful on the post-June 1 cuts since you couldn't use that cap space until June. You hold the cap hit until then. But regardless you can still make the contracts you signed work one way or another.

The one thing I'm not as convinced about is the Vikings trading down. Everything they do in general suggests they'd trade down, because its what they always do. But analytics are equally as important to the team and there is a strong suggesting that you want to stay in the top-15 picks since the % chance of drafting a pro bowler or all pro player is significantly increased vs. pick 20. The Vikings proved that wrong in 2020 with Justin Jefferson but I don't think its as easy of a decision.

01-25-2021, 05:01 PM

Quote: @"Geoff Nichols" said:
I like what you did overall. You obviously fill the right "needs" and get good value in doing so.

Would be a little careful on the post-June 1 cuts since you couldn't use that cap space until June. You hold the cap hit until then. But regardless you can still make the contracts you signed work one way or another.

The one thing I'm not as convinced about is the Vikings trading down. Everything they do in general suggests they'd trade down, because its what they always do. But analytics are equally as important to the team and there is a strong suggesting that you want to stay in the top-15 picks since the % chance of drafting a pro bowler or all pro player is significantly increased vs. pick 20. The Vikings proved that wrong in 2020 with Justin Jefferson but I don't think its as easy of a decision.

Yeah, I just really want that 2nd rounder. I think it depends largely on two things: 1. Can we get the 3T in free agency? And 2. How deep are the top edge rushers? Is it Paye and Rousseau and then a gap? Which is what most observers seem to think. Or is there a cluster that includes the above and Patrick Jones, Jaelen Phillips, and maybe Tryon, among whom there's little drop off? If that's the case we probably could afford to slide down a bit and still get one of the top guys.

01-25-2021, 05:49 PM

This is good stuff. But if I'm spending a 1 on a G, especially one as good as AVT, he's starting. Definitely need to keep Reiff around.

01-25-2021, 05:56 PM

Quote: @"BarrNone55" said:
This is good stuff. But if I'm spending a 1 on a G, especially one as good as AVT, he's starting. Definitely need to keep Reiff around.

Just hedging bets a little bit. AVT is the future left guard when Cleveland moves over to LT. If the cap comes in significantly lower than $185, then Reiff might have to go, forcing that move right away.

01-25-2021, 06:00 PM

A lot of hard work in this projection. I do wish you had put your '21 draftees into a list - is this it or did I miss anyone?

1a DL Jaelan Philips
1b OL Alija Vera Tucker
3 S Caden Sterns
4 WR Jaelen Darden
5 QB Kellen Mond
6 K Jose Borregales

Questions:

Would the Vikings rely on rookie Mond as their QB2? I doubt that, think they will keep Mannion.
Same question about a rookie PK. Lots of potential drama and unfavorable history...
Sheldon Rankins: I like him but IDK about $8M - that is, I think he will get more. You're counting on the cap being pretty depressed.
I think the team will look for another CB, either FA or early in draft, because Mike Hughes seems doubtful, and...Zimmer needs many CBs.
I would love to hear your thinking about the OL. Tucker would be an outstanding addition IMO, but moving Cleveland to LG and having Tucker back him up seems like you are edging Cleveland towards LT and expecting Tucker to take over LG - both in a year. Or am I jumping to the wrong conclusion? Tucker could play LT...so could O'Neill...

01-25-2021, 06:01 PM

Quote: @"Geoff Nichols" said:
I like what you did overall. You obviously fill the right "needs" and get good value in doing so.

Would be a little careful on the post-June 1 cuts since you couldn't use that cap space until June. You hold the cap hit until then. But regardless you can still make the contracts you signed work one way or another.

The one thing I'm not as convinced about is the Vikings trading down. Everything they do in general suggests they'd trade down, because its what they always do. But analytics are equally as important to the team and there is a strong suggesting that you want to stay in the top-15 picks since the % chance of drafting a pro bowler or all pro player is significantly increased vs. pick 20. The Vikings proved that wrong in 2020 with Justin Jefferson but I don't think its as easy of a decision.

If OTC's numbers are correct, then we save $5M by cutting Rudy pre-June 1 and $8M post June 1.

01-25-2021, 06:25 PM

Quote: @Jor-El said:
A lot of hard work in this projection. I do wish you had put your '21 draftees into a list - is this it or did I miss anyone?

1a DL Jaelan Philips
1b OL Alija Vera Tucker
3 S Caden Sterns
4 WR Jaelen Darden
5 QB Kellen Mond
6 K Jose Borregales

Yep, that's it.

Questions:
Would the Vikings rely on rookie Mond as their QB2? I doubt that, think they will keep Mannion.
I think Mannion's too expensive. I think it will either be a rookie or Keith Browning

Same question about a rookie PK. Lots of potential drama and unfavorable history...
There's that potential with every kicker, old and young. Who knows, could be Rodrigo Blankenship

Sheldon Rankins: I like him but IDK about $8M - that is, I think he will get more. You're counting on the cap being pretty depressed.
Keep in mind this is not his salary; it's his cap hit. For example, Dalvin signed a $63M contract. His first year cap hit was $5M. What's more, Rankins has been hurt almost every year he's been in the league. He won't be able to command top-tier money. If anything, $8M is probably high.

I think the team will look for another CB, either FA or early in draft, because Mike Hughes seems doubtful, and...Zimmer needs many CBs.
Very possible, especially if Hughes can't go. But if he is healthy, I like our starters and I like our depth. Big fan of Harrison Hand in the slot. And Kris Boyd is capable depth.

I would love to hear your thinking about the OL. Tucker would be an outstanding addition IMO, but moving Cleveland to LG and having Tucker back him up seems like you are edging Cleveland towards LT and expecting Tucker to take over LG - both in a year. Or am I jumping to the wrong conclusion? Tucker could play LT...so could O'Neill...
I'm a big fan of players who are versatile. I like the idea of having four players who could feasibly start at LT (O'Neill, AVT, Cleveland and Reiff). But if the cap comes in significantly lower than $185M, then Reiff is probably going to have to go--at least in this scenario. This puts Cleveland at LT right away, where I think he's better suited and AVT starts at LG.

01-25-2021, 07:06 PM

Quote: @MaroonBells said:

Would the Vikings rely on rookie Mond as their QB2? I doubt that, think they will keep Mannion.
I think Mannion's too expensive. I think it will either be a rookie or Keith Browning

Thanks for putting that together. One thing for certain, if we go with a rookie at backup QB, it will be a new road for Rick. He as always had a veteran it seems.